686
FXUS62 KMFL 172325
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
725 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A band of enhanced moisture on the leading edge of a westward
moving low-mid level shortwave trough will move across southern
and western sections of the area, mainly from the Miami area
westward to Collier County. This area will continue to have the
higher rain chances this afternoon, decreasing from east to west
through the late afternoon hours. Rainfall amounts generally
from a quarter to a third of an inch can be expected, with
localized amounts of a half-inch or slightly higher. A few
thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon, with enough
diurnal instability characterized by CAPE values around 2000
j/kg in the aforementioned areas. Drier air depicted in derived
GOES Total Precipitable Water data (values less than 1.5 inches)
over the Bahamas are poised to move over the southern Florida
peninsula area on the back side of the shortwave trough this
afternoon, leading to a mainly dry afternoon and evening over most
areas. A rather tight pressure gradient from surface high pressure
building from the western North Atlantic will lead to breezy east
winds gusting to around 25 mph this afternoon and early this
evening.

Mostly dry conditions are expected to begin Tuesday as the axis of
the relatively dry air should be over South Florida. However, as
the day progresses we expect moisture levels to increase ahead of
a quick-moving low level trough embedded in the fresh easterly
wind flow, with scattered west-moving showers and thunderstorms
becoming more common during the second half of the day. Highest
PoPs (50-60%)are in the Palm Beach County where the area of
higher moisture values are expected to arrive Tuesday afternoon,
with generally 30-40% PoPs elsewhere. Breezy east winds will
continue, although perhaps slightly less so than today.

As far as temperatures go, went on the higher end of the NBM
temperature distribution, with near 90 east coast and mid 90s west
coast. Heat index values will approach 105F in the Naples area
this afternoon. The presence of the drier air at least for the
first half of tomorrow will lower heat index values slightly,
although high temperatures should still range from near 90 east to
the mid 90s western interior and Gulf coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Main feature to watch for the middle to end of the week will be a
disturbance several hundred miles east of the Bahamas associated
with a surface trough. This feature has a low end chance of
developing tropical characteristics over the next 7 days. The few
ensemble members that do show a surface low developing later this
week have it N/NE of our forecast area, but it will still be worth
keeping an eye on. Regardless of development, an increase in
moisture is expected across South FL late week into the weekend,
which will bring higher chances of showers and thunderstorms back to
the forecast. Overall QPF totals over the next 7 days (1-2 inches)
aren`t impressive for this time of year, but given wet antecedent
conditions in place will need to monitor closely as any heavy rain
over the urban areas may cause some issues.

High temperatures from mid week through the weekend will be around
seasonal norms thanks to persistent easterly flow, ranging from the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will remain mild ranging from
the middle 70s over the interior to around 80 close to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A few quick passing showers with MVFR CIGs are possible
overnight for the Atlantic sites, but otherwise generally VFR
conditions through the 00Z TAF period. Easterly winds around 10-15
kts, with gusts to 25 kts during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Moderate to fresh easterly winds persisting through mid-week will
build seas to 5-7 feet over the Atlantic waters Tuesday night and
Wednesday, and 3-5 feet over the Gulf waters. Small Craft Advisory
will continue through Tuesday, and likely be extended through
Wednesday. Some slight decrease in the E-SE winds for the end of
the week is expected to lead to lower seas to end the week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will periodically affect the
local waters, becoming more numerous Tuesday night and continuing
through the remainder of the week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

The moderate to fresh easterly winds will keep a high risk of rip
currents at the Atlantic beaches for most of the rest of the week.
Surf will pick up to around 3-4 feet Tuesday and Wednesday at the
Palm Beach and Broward county beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  78  87 /  10  40  40  60
West Kendall     77  91  77  89 /  10  30  30  60
Opa-Locka        79  92  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
Homestead        79  89  79  87 /  10  30  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  89  79  86 /  10  40  40  60
N Ft Lauderdale  80  90  79  87 /  10  40  40  60
Pembroke Pines   80  90  80  90 /  10  40  30  60
West Palm Beach  77  90  77  87 /  10  40  30  60
Boca Raton       79  90  78  87 /  10  40  40  60
Naples           76  94  77  92 /  10  30  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday morning for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...Culver