130
FXUS62 KMFL 041123
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
623 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 621 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

  - Dry and comfortable weather continues for the next few days.

  - Above average temperatures continue into the end of the week
    with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A weak flow pattern is maintained for the the end of this week as
broad upper level ridging stays situated over the Florida Peninsula
and Caribbean islands. Any modest moisture will be confined to the
lowest levels of the atmosphere, but will not result in any shallow
shower development as high pressure dominance and weak flow keeps
conditons highly calm. Therefore, quiet and comfortable weather
continues through the end of this week. High temperatures are
expected in the low to mid 80s both today and Friday, which will be
a few degrees above normal (upper 70s) for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

The mid-level ridge over the Caribbean and western Atlantic will
eventually get pushed away from the area as a strengthening trough
over the central and eastern U.S. breaks up into an overall
elongated trough and a deeper shortwave forming over the southeast
and Mid-Atlantic states. An attendant cold front will advect
southwards from this disturbance and ahead of its arrival the low
level wind flow will shift to the south and southwest over the
weekend, leading to an increase in moisture advection back into
South Florida. As a result, with this cold front expected to be a
more robust one compared to the last couple, the front will be able
to lift this warm and moist air out ahead of it and increase the
chances for some rain showers and thunderstorms mainly for the
second half of Sunday as well as Monday. Despite the increase in
moisture, model soundings this far out do suggest that there will
not be an overwhelming amount of instability as the frontal passage
occurs. Thus, most showers and storms that occur during this time
frame could end up being of the garden variety with just a couple of
heavier localized pockets. In general, not expecting much in the way
of impactful weather with this system at this time and any total
rainfall is not expected to cause major concerns.

Behind this frontal boundary, overall quiet weather returns for the
end of the forecast period heading into the middle of next week as a
substantially drier air mass returns once again to the region.

Temperatures for this weekend will be above normal in the mid to
upper 80s as warm and moist southerly flow combined with ridging
aloft will help to increase temps. For early next week, temperatures
will drop into the 70s on Monday behind the aforementioned front and
will struggle to rebound for a couple of days. Overnight lows will
also get chillier behind the front with chances for most areas to
fall into the 50s Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light and variable winds early this morning will increase out of
the east after 16z and will range between 5 to 10 kts through the
afternoon hours. At KAPF, winds will shift and become SW after 18z
as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

A gentle to lightly moderate easterly to northeasterly breeze is
expected today and will shift southerly later on Friday. There is
also no threat for rain showers, leading to overall benign
conditions. Seas are expected at 1-2 feet in the Gulf and 2-3 feet
in the Atlantic for the end of this week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            82  71  83  70 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     83  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        83  69  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        83  70  83  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  70  82  69 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  80  70  83  69 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   83  69  85  68 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  80  68  83  68 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       82  69  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           83  66  83  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CWC