196
FXUS62 KMFL 050720
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
320 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

 - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms forecast to develop
   each afternoon through the forecast period.

 - Marine and beach conditions remain dangerous today as swell
   and onshore flow persist, but will gradually improve with the
   new week.

 - Minor to moderate coastal flooding remains likely into next
   week as we approach the peak of this King tide.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The large scale pattern across the region remains mostly unchanged
today, with a ridge of high pressure building over the southeast
CONUS and an area of low pressure lingering near the Bahamas. The
interaction between these two features is maintaining a tight
pressure gradient across the area, supporting persistent ENE surface
winds. Model guidance has repeatedly hinted at the low gradually
lifting NW this weekend, but the strengthening ridge has so far
prevented that motion, and there remains some uncertainty on whether
the ridge will weaken enough in the coming days to allow the system
to move.

In the meantime, this setup will continue to support the development
of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area today and
tomorrow, as low-level moisture continues to advect over the region
from the Atlantic. The atmospheric column has gradually moistened
since Saturday, but ACARS soundings from MIA/FLL/PBI continue to
show pockets of drier air aloft, and the 00Z HREF forecast soundings
do not show that changing much throughout the day today. This
lingering dryness aloft could limit the vertical extent of
convection and suppress widespread heavy rainfall.

Not much changes heading into Monday, with ridging aloft and surface
high over the western Atlantic remaining dominant and supporting
continued easterly flow over the region. NBM POPs came in a bit
elevated compared to today (up to 70% compared to the 40-50% range
expected for today), but model ensembles are not very excited about
considerable rainfall accumulations throughout the day. In fact, QPF
cluster analysis suggests that around 70% of ensemble members from
the GEFS, EPS and GEPS (the ensemble versions of the GFS, ECMWF and
GEM global models) favor a generally drier scenario across South
Florida, with any substantial rainfall staying offshore and north of
our area. With this in mind, lowered the forecast for Monday a bit.

Highs will rise to the upper 80s and lower 90s today, with the
warmest temperatures found across southwest FL thanks to the ENE
flow regime. Overnight temps could dip to the low to mid 70s over
the interior, and warmer upper 70s along the East Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

The pattern remains generally unchanged through mid-week, with
ridging aloft over the southeast CONUS and high pressure over the
Atlantic as the dominant features. This will continue to promote
breezy easterly flow across South Florida, supporting the typical
summertime regime of scattered showers and thunderstorms each
afternoon, with activity mainly focused over the interior and
southwest FL.

As we head into the back half of the week, ridging is forecast to
start eroding as an upper-level trough deepens over the central
and southern Plains. As a result, we could see the approach of the
first front of the season late this week. There is still a lot of
uncertainty regarding this solution and any impacts to South
Florida, but we`ll be eagerly monitoring the possibility as the
week progresses.

High temperatures through the extended period will generally
range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid
70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Generally VFR through the period, with light to breezy easterly
winds. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across
South Florida after 18Z, and could result in reduced vis/cigs
for East Coast terminals. Conditions will gradually improve after
03-06Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Conditions over the local waters continue to improve today as winds
and seas subside. Hazardous seas 6-8 feet could still be possible
for the northern local Atlantic waters through Monday as winds 15-20
kts and northeasterly swell persist. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect for the area through Monday night.  Winds could increase
again later this week, potentially necessitating an additional
round of Advisories. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain
likely each afternoon.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Onshore flow and lingering northeasterly swell will maintain a high
risk of rip currents across the Atlantic coastline through tonight.
The risk will persist into the new workweek for the Palm Beaches
where the effects of the swell will linger.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be remain likely along the
east coast into next week during high tides due to the upcoming king
tide cycle, and ongoing E/NE swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            88  77  88  77 /  50  40  60  50
West Kendall     88  76  88  76 /  60  30  60  40
Opa-Locka        88  77  89  77 /  50  40  60  50
Homestead        88  76  87  76 /  50  30  60  40
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  87  76 /  50  40  60  50
N Ft Lauderdale  87  77  87  77 /  50  40  60  50
Pembroke Pines   90  77  90  78 /  50  40  60  50
West Palm Beach  87  77  87  76 /  50  50  60  50
Boca Raton       88  76  88  76 /  50  50  60  50
Naples           90  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168.

     High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-670.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...99