995
FXUS66 KMFR 102204
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
204 PM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mid to high
level clouds streaming across Coos and Douglas counties, while
fog persists in the Umqpua Basin and in the Grants Pass portion
of the Rogue Valley. These areas of fog should clear over the next
few hours, but the mid to high level clouds will overspread much
of the region as weak front settles southward and dissipates over
the area today.

The dying front and the upper trough will bring some very minor
rain chances to the coast and into northern Douglas County through
this afternoon, but we`re really not expecting much, and it might
be difficult to find many locations where precipitation is
measurable. South and east of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide it`ll be a
dry, mild day with some filtered sunshine through high clouds.
Fog and low stratus are likely to return to area valleys tonight,
once the higher clouds exit the region and winds calm.

The dry, mild pattern will persist through Tuesday, but breaks
down Wednesday as a deep upper trough approaches the coast. Models
are showing a fairly strong pressure gradient and mid-level flow
initially of (~50-60 kt) during the day Wednesday, which will
result in strengthening south winds along the coast and also in
the usual spots -- the Shasta Valley and over the East Side. It
doesn`t appear it will come together soon enough to meet High Wind
criteria along the coast, but gusts of 45-55 mph are expected.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop Wednesday farther inland,
especially in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side, but also
perhaps here in the Rogue Valley. Models show mid-level flow
increasing to and peaking at 65-75 kt Wednesday evening/night, so
a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Shasta Valley and the
East Side, where the chances of reaching Warning criteria are
around 50 percent. The Rogue Valley from Ashland to Medford and
the Klamath Basin around Klamath Falls have a near 90 percent
chance of reaching Wind Advisory criteria, which will likely be
issued within the next 24 hours.

Once again snow levels will initially be very high, so
precipitation, even in the mountains, will begin as rain. It
does look like snow levels drop to around 5000 feet by Thursday
morning, then as low as 3700-4000 feet Thursday night into Friday.
Some snow will accumulate above 5000 feet, but preliminary
accumulations are generally 2-6". In terms of rainfall, this looks
like another Coast Range and into Siskiyou County event, where
amounts of 1-3 inches will be common. West Side valleys will have
a good amount of downsloping, so amounts there will be less than
that (bulk of precip coming late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning), but post-frontal showers continuing Thursday in moist,
onshore flow. It`ll remain breezy and turn cooler compared to
earlier in the week. Friday is shown to be the coolest day of the
stretch with temperatures struggling to get out of the 40s in the
valleys west of the Cascades (we do have highs in the low 50s),
and most of the East Side peaking out in the upper 30s to near
40F. Snow levels will be at their lowest point Friday morning
(~3700 feet) with the trough axis shifting east of the Cascades,
but warm advection could result in high PoP, low QPF from the
coast to the Cascades. Precip chances south and east of the
mountains will be lower and generally 50% or less.

It`s a bit too early to speculate much about the weekend. Models
do try to lift the main moisture axis to our north Saturday, but
we`ll maintain a high PoP forecast along the coast and west of the
Cascades (50-90%) with much lower chances south and east of the
mountains (10-40%). The next front is indicated to approach the
coast Sunday. -Spilde/BPN


&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...Dense fog persist in some areas late
this morning, namely in he lower Rogue/Illinois valleys and the
Umpqua Basin. These areas should clear to VFR this afternoon. A weak
front will pass through the area this afternoon and this evening,
and this will keep low ceilings in  place along the coast through this
evening. Skies clear overnight, but this will allow IFR/LIFR fog and
low stratus to return to many of the same valleys tonight through
Tuesday morning. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Monday, November 10, 2025...Swell
dominated seas will remain below advisory criteria today with
increasing northerly winds, especially south of Cape Blanco. Winds
briefly ease Tuesday afternoon and night before a strong front and
low brings gusty south winds. These winds could possibly reach gale
force, and steep to very steep seas Wednesday into early Thursday
followed by a high and steep west swell Thursday into Friday.
-Spilde/9


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night for ORZ030-031.

CA...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night for CAZ081-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$