556
FXUS66 KMFR 162226
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
226 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025

.DISCUSSION...An upper trough is pushing a band of rain showers
across west side valleys this afternoon. Amounts have been
unimpactful, with Red Mound in Curry County getting half an inch of
rain so far today. Inland areas have generally had 0.1 inches or
less so far. Today`s snow levels are at 7000-8000 feet, which will
minimize snow impacts. Gusty southerly winds continue in the Shasta
Valley, with gusts at Weed reaching 36 mph so far.

Showers will continue moving east this evening, with activity
peaking as the trough splits early Monday morning. Southerly flow
around the split low will bring moderate to heavy precipitation to
Curry County, western Siskiyou County, and the Mount Shasta region
(Including Weed, Mount Shasta City, and Dunsmuir) through Monday
morning. Other west side areas may see periods of moderate
precipitation, depending on how the low splits. Snow levels lower to
5000-6000 feet on Monday, which may allow for a stray snow showers
over Cascades passes or on Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna, but
overall snowfall should stay over higher terrain.

Seasonable conditions are expected during the day Tuesday, but a
lingering cold air mass is keeping chilly overnight lows in the
forecast Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. East of the Cascades,
lows in the mid to low 20s are expected, with temperatures in the
teens possible in northern basins. West of the Cascades, overnight
lows look to be in the low to mid-30s. Considering Medford
specifically, lows have an 80% chance of being below 36 degrees
(frost conditions) and a 50% chance of being below 32 degrees
(freeze conditions). Frost/freeze conditions may be present in the
Applegate and Illinois valleys as well, while the Umpqua Valley
could see frost conditions.

Activity remains in the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday,
although the details remain hazy. What was once a full low pressure
system has become an upper trough in both the ECMWF and GFS
deterministic imagery. Once again, this trough looks to split into a
cutoff low but the models diverge on how that split happens. The
ECMWF keeps the low over land, which would bring elevated southerly
winds and more precipitation. The GFS moves the low offshore and has
it traveling south, which would bring some light showers to
Siskiyou County. Forecast snow levels for Wednesday-Thursday remain
in the 4500-6000 foot ranges. Overall, both outcomes show little
indication of hazardous conditions.

Beyond the trough, long term deterministic imagery has zonal flow
over a pacific high for both models for Friday into next weekend.
ECMWF imagery keeps the ridge flatter, allowing for moisture to flow
to the area and bring the possibility of coastal and Cascades
showers. In the absence of a lifting mechanism, other areas would
see sparse activity at most. The GFS imagery has a more developed
ridge that keeps area conditions dry. Meteogram guidance for both
models seem to show more agreement on next weekend staying drier,
with temperatures ~5 degrees above seasonal averages. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...16/18Z TAFs...LIFR conditions linger in a few valleys
west of the Cascades as some higher clouds move overhead. East of
the Cascades, there are pockets of clear skies and that should
continue for the next few hours. It looks like Roseburg might stay
stuck in those low clouds all day as that atmosphere fails to mix.
An approaching cold front will bring some lighter rain by this
afternoon with heavier rain arriving during the evening hours. Look
for more periods of IFR to LIFR conditions as this front moves
through overnight.
-Smith

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Sunday, November 16, 2025...
Conditions hazardous to smaller crafts will persist into the evening
hours as north winds begin to ramp up. Buoy conditions are not
terrible right now with wave heights around 8 feet at 11 seconds.
The increase in north west winds will push those wave heights higher
overnight with seas peaking up to 15 feet. Seas will gradually lower
by Monday evening, although conditions will still be hazardous to
smaller crafts.

Conditions improve Tuesday into Wednesday, then another frontal
system is expected late Wednesday into Thursday, though, confidence
is low on the trajectory of the next storm system. Some guidance
brings the system inland, while other guidance keeps it farther
offshore as it moves southward and these differences will have
implications on how strong winds will be. Despite the uncertainty in
wind strength, confidence is higher for a heavy long period swell to
build into the waters Thursday night into Friday.

-Smith/BR-y


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for PZZ376.

&&

$$