908
FXUS66 KMFR 041050
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
350 AM PDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.DISCUSSION...A seasonably weak and weakening cold front will be
the dominant driver of our weather today into early Sunday. This
includes chilly mornings on the East Side, clouds on the West
Wide, and occasional light rain for the coast and across Douglas
County. High pressure will follow later Sunday through Tuesday
with a drying trend, and warming trend of high temperatures.
Wednesday and Thursday will most likely be days of gradual
transition with the approach of a broad trough. The trough looks
to be the most prominent feature late in the week into next
weekend with the next rain chances for our area.

A few showers are beginning to push into Coos and Douglas counties
this morning as the weak front approaches the region. The front
will weaken while making little forward progress today. This will
continue the shower chances along the coast and north of the
Umpqua Divide, while the rest of the West Side will have a cloudy
but dry day. Areas east of the Cascades will see increasing mid-
level clouds today, but no precipitation is expected.

With mostly clear skies and calm winds east of the Cascades this
morning, temperatures have dropped to around or just below
freezing. A Freeze Warning is in effect through this morning, and
this will be the only freeze warning issued for East Side
valleys, with this being considered a season ending event and
normal low temperatures now approaching freezing. Freezing
temperatures are also likely each morning from Sunday through
Tuesday. On the coldest morning of this episode, a hard freeze is
expected for all of the area on Monday.

With high pressure building into the region early next week and an
upper level low forming to our south, easterly winds are expected
late Sunday into Tuesday, with warm afternoon temperatures and
clear skies. Meanwhile, a closed low will develop over the Gulf
of Alaska before digging south towards the area later in the week.
Models historically have difficulty with determining where
wobbly, broad, closed upper level troughs will track. The
Wednesday into the weekend trough is no exception. The Wednesday
into Thursday period has the highest probability of being
characterized by increasing high clouds and a southerly flow, with
a low, but highest probability of light showers for the coast. By
Friday, day 7, and even more so for next weekend, an episode of
cool, wet weather is an increasing probability. -DW/BPN

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z TAFs...Marine stratus and areas of fog, terrain
obscuration, and light showers have settled in along the coast and
coastal ranges north of Cape Blanco, and into portions of the
Umpqua Basin, including at KOTH (North Bend). IFR/LIFR conditions
in these areas will continue through the morning, and improve to
MVFR through the late morning, before lifting to VFR by Saturday
afternoon. Lower flight conditions are likely to lower again this
evening and tonight.

For inland areas, MVFR ceilings may develop in the Umpqua Valley,
including KRBG (Roseburg), this morning and could linger into
Saturday afternoon as well before lifting or clearing. Other areas
look to remain at VFR levels under midlevel ceilings or clear skies.
-TAD/BPN

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, October 4, 2025...North
winds increase today as a thermal trough strengthens along the
coast. Expect moderate to strong north winds late this afternoon
through Sunday night, strongest south of Cape Blanco, along with
steep, hazardous seas. Conditions should improve early next week.
-Spilde/BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ029-031.

CA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ084-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT
     Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$