124
FXUS66 KMFR 181800
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1000 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion.


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.AVIATION...18/18Z TAFs...Ceilings look to be persistent in many
west side valleys late this morning, including most areas south and
east of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, including Medford and
Montague/Yreka. Ceilings are around 3000 feet (borderline MVFR)
with some higher terrain obscuration and could last through most
of this afternoon. There is a chance ceilings lift or even scatter
out for a time late this afternoon/evening. Similarly, fog/low
clouds are bringing lower conditions to Klamath Falls, but with
LIFR. These should tend to lift and break over the next few hours
with satellite imagery showing some drying coming in from the
north. Roseburg and North Bend have already cleared to VFR.

With high pressure building in and plenty of low-level moisture, we
expect areas of fog and low clouds to redevelop this evening and
fill in again overnight into Wednesday morning. This will bring
widespread valley IFR/LIFR and to most TAF sites. Offshore flow
could prevent the fog/low clouds at North Bend, so a VFR forecast is
indicated there through Wednesday morning. -Spilde


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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 901 AM PST Tue Nov 18 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows plenty of low clouds over most
of the interior westside valleys, with fog and low clouds in some
of the valleys east of the Cascades. The cloud deck is pretty
extensive west of the Cascades and it`s possible it may not clear
out until late in the afternoon, if at all. The extensive clouds
for the interior westside valleys also has resulted in relatively
warmer temperatures compared to the higher elevations where
overnight lows were colder due to no cloud cover.

Guidance tonight is in pretty good agreement for low clouds and
patchy to areas of fog to form for the interior westside valleys
again later tonight into Wednesday morning. This will be enough to
keep temperatures from dropping near or below freezing as the
cloud layer and fog will slow down the amount of cooling tonight.

The pattern overall will remain rather quiet for the rest of the
week into next weekend. The exception will be Wednesday night into
Thursday as an upper trough will move into the area bringing
precipitation, but much like the last couple of times, the low
will split from the main flow and push south into northern Cal.
This will limit the amount of precipitation we get in our area.
-Petrucelli

AVIATION...18/12Z TAFs..Ares of fog and low clouds will lead to
MVFR to IFR conditions this morning. Improving conditions
expected late this morning to early this afternoon with VFR
conditions thereafter. Another round of low clouds and fog will
likely impact the inland TAF sites tonight as high pressure builds
into the region. Expecting LIFR/IFR conditions tonight for these
inland TAF sites as fog and low clouds are anticipated.

-Guerrero

MARINE...Updated 845 AM PST Tuesday, November 18, 2025...North
winds and northwest swell will gradually diminish over the next 24
hours or so, with steep to very steep seas improving from north to
south through this evening. Conditions improve briefly early
Wednesday, then another frontal system is expected Wednesday evening
into Thursday with steep to very steep wind-driven seas anticipated.
After the front passes and winds diminish, large longer period swell
arrives Thursday into Friday. Guidance is showing the swell
peaking in the 16-19 foot range at 15 seconds Thursday evening. A
somewhat active pattern then continues through the weekend, with
persistent elevated seas of slightly higher than 10 feet. -Spilde

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 845 AM PST Tuesday, November 18,
2025...Guidance is showing a long period swell arriving Thursday
morning and persisting through Friday morning. With swells peaking
in the 16-19 foot range (15 sec period) Thursday evening, this will
result in 20-24 foot breaking waves in the surf zone. A high surf
advisory may be necessary soon. -Spilde

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ356-376.

&&

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MAS/MAS/MAS