426
FXUS66 KMFR 111133
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
333 AM PST Thu Dec 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...There are some passing high clouds running along
Douglas County and northern east side tonight, but satellite is
giving us a clearer picture of the low clouds in west side valleys
tonight with less cloud cover than previous nights. There are
also low clouds and reduced visibility along the coast. With the
high pressure off the coast building, drier conditions will
continue through the start of the weekend.

We can say goodbye to those well above normal morning temperatures
as the cloud cover won`t be helping us like it did earlier this
week. If you`re heading out the door before/as the sun`s coming up,
you could be stepping out to temperatures in the upper 30s to low
40s in the Rogue and Illinois Valleys, upper 40s in the Umpqua
Basin, and 20s in east side.

Although the clearer skies shown on satellite mean colder
temperatures at night, it also means more sun during the day. With
the Rogue Valley never making it out of the low clouds yesterday,
high temperatures were cooler than forecast. Today`s forecast has
the low clouds and fog lifting from the Rogue Valley later this
morning, and if that timing fits, temperatures will be able to
reach the mid-50s here with soaring sunshine. Across Southern
Oregon and Northern California, more 50s to low 60s will be found
this afternoon. From this afternoon through Saturday, more
locations will still see afternoon temperatures 10-15 degrees
warmer than normal west of the Cascades and 15-20 degrees above
normal for east side.

Tomorrow and Saturday mornings are looking to be the coldest in the
forecast period with low/mid-40s near the Coos County coast and into
the Umpqua Basin. The Rogue Valley will see near freezing
temperatures, and east side will still be in the 20s.

Another chance of rain comes Sunday morning/afternoon with light
showers at the coast. However, the front that looks promising for
more rainfall in Southern Oregon and Northern California will arrive
Monday. More ensembles are in agreement that it will be later Monday
morning that the rainfall starts at the coast and moving inland
through the afternoon. Snow levels will start at 8,500`-9,000`
Monday and fall to 6,000`-7,000` Tuesday afternoon. The latest
changes have slightly decreased rainfall amounts for Monday into
Tuesday, but this system is still forecast to bring heavier rain
into Curry County, with west side valleys seeing more rain than
the past few days as well. -9


&&

.AVIATION...11/12z TAFs...Low ceilings and visibilities are present
along the coast, including North Bend, with MVFR/IFR levels expected
this morning. Then, expect clearing to VFR in the afternoon. Inland,
there are areas of low clouds and fog in valleys west of the
Cascades, including at Medford, Grants Pass and Montague. Low clouds
with MVFR/IFR are in the Umpqua Basin, including at Roseburg. These
conditions will persist through this morning then are expected to
improve to VFR between 18-21z. Elsewhere, conditions are VFR.

Tonight, low clouds are once again expected to develop with IFR/LIFR
conditions forecast for the coast. Inland, west side valleys could
see IFR/LIFR ceilings, but there is a lower confidence on dropping
visibility to that mark for now. -9

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 AM PST Thursday, December 11, 2025...Seas
remain hazardous to smaller crafts as high and steep swell persists
this evening through later this morning. Conditions improve this
evening into the early weekend as high pressure builds and seas
lower.

The next big weather concern will be around Monday as a low deepens
out in the Pacific and models are showing a cold front swing through
the waters to our north. Right now, southerly gales are looking more
probable than not around 60 to 70 percent.

-Smith/-9

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this
     morning for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$