816
FXUS66 KMFR 240116
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
516 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

.Updated the Aviation Section...

.AVIATION...24/00z TAFs...Conditions late this afternoon are a mix
of IFR/MVFR at the coast with light rain, while VFR prevails inland.
A cold front will push inland tonight with gradually deteriorating
conditions, especially from the coast to the Cascades. Light rain
chances will persist overnight, with a freezing level lowering to
7000 ft msl. Meantime, west side valleys will mostly deteriorate to
IFR, with patchy MVFR. Abundant low lying moisture and a stabilizing
air mass will continue the west side valley IFR for most of Monday
morning, with brief improvement to VFR expected for the afternoon
into early evening. The east side will mostly see lowering, yet
still VFR ceilings into Monday morning, ahead of the late day
clearing.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November 23, 2025...Steep
seas will continue today due to long period west to northwest
swell. A weak front will bring a brief period of south to southwest
winds along with some rain through this evening. Not expecting
thunderstorms. Sub-advisory north winds return overnight into Monday
and continue through Wednesday morning. Hazards are likely to return
around Thanksgiving--as early as Wednesday night--thanks to a
combinatino of a fresh swell and wind-driven seas. Hazardous seas
may come to fruition over northern waters with advisory level steep
seas elsewhere.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November
23, 2025...An increased risk of sneaker waves continues at the
beaches through this evening. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect
for sneaker waves that can run up significantly farther on beaches
than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can
suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the
ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or
trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any
time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of
the tides if venturing out onto the beaches today. -Spilde

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025/

DISCUSSION...Fog is clearing from west side valleys and mid to high
level clouds are moving over northern California and southern Oregon
ahead of an approaching weak front. This front will bring some
coastal rainfall this afternoon and inland showers west of the
Cascades into early Monday morning. Amounts will be light, with
coastal ranges getting 0.2 to 0.4 inches of precipitation and west
side valleys generally staying below 0.2 inches. Snow levels remain
at 6000-7000 feet, which will keep any snowfall to the highest peaks
and ridgelines. Cascades passes may also see 0.2 to 0.4 inches of
precipitation, with only isolated showers getting farther east.

Behind the front, uneventful weather is expected through midweek. A
weak warm front and following onshore flow will bring slight shower
chances (10-30%) to northern parts of Coos, Douglas, and Klamath
counties for Tuesday and Wednesday. Showers may push inland west of
the Cascades on Thursday as a shortwave trough passes to the north,
adding some instability. Even with that extra influence, any
activity would likely be measured in the hundreths. This stream of
moisture looks to keep clouds moving over the area, which may limit
surface heading during the day and surface cooling at night. With
both of these decreasing, fog may be less likely to develop. Warm
air behind the Tuesday front warming temperatures on Wednesday and
Thursday to 5-10 degrees above seasonal norms.

A low pressure system looks to move down from Canada and into the
the continental US on Friday and through the weekend. Precipitation
chances for the area are still inconclusive and reliant on how the
low moves southward, but ensemble guidance does not currently
indicate any hazardous outcomes with high confidence. Agreement for
a cooling trend remains as northerly flow over the area would bring
colder air to the area through the weekend. Daytime highs are
currently forecast to stay at seasonal levels. Nighttime lows would
decrease for Friday night through at least Sunday night. By Sunday
night/Monday morning, coastal areas could be in the low 40s to mid
30s. Most west side valleys are forecast to be in the mid 20s, with
the Umpqua Valley possibly staying a bit warmer in the low 30s. East
of the Cascades, overnight lows in the mid teens to single digits
may be possible for Sunday night. -TAD

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for ORZ021-
     022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$