587
FXUS66 KMFR 012121
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
221 PM PDT Sat Nov 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...An active pattern will continue through the next
several days, with only a few breaks here and there all the way
into next weekend. There will be several frontal passages in that
time, the first weak front is passing today, then a very robust
system arrives Monday into early Wednesday, followed by another
front around Thursday, then finally another system arrives next
weekend. Wet and windy weather will accompany nearly all of these
systems, but winter weather will not be too much of a concern
given the expected higher snow levels.

A narrow band of precipitation has moved onshore this morning,
and as of this writing is stretched along a corridor from coastal
Curry County northeast to the Cascades just west of Bend. This
area of rain will push eastward through the afternoon, then
dissipate as it crosses the Cascades this evening and tonight.
Most rain will fall along and west of the Cascades, but a few
hundredths are possible to the east, with any stronger showers
that make it over the mountains. Breezy winds are accompanying
this front, but nothing impactful is expected. Conditions should
improve by tomorrow, and although temperatures will be cooler
behind the front, skies will be mostly clear after any early
morning valley fog dissipates.

After a rather quiet Sunday, a warm front will arrive from the
south and linger in the area Monday through midday Tuesday. The
overrunning of warm air over the cooler surface air will result in
widespread light precipitation, but temperatures will not warm
much at the surface, remaining at or just below seasonal normals.

The most impactful system in the forecast is then set to arrive
late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a intense front and a
substantial moisture plume bringing strong winds and heavy
precipitation to southern Oregon and far northern California.
With surface pressure gradients ranging roughly between -6 and -8
mb across the area, and with 700mb winds of 50 to 70 kts, it is
looking more and more likely that wind headlines will be
necessary, especially along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and
across the East Side. Some guidance suggests that strong winds
could impact portions of the West Side as well, including near
Ashland, and in some ofthe other roughly south/north oriented
valleys. Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as
measured by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are approaching
values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500).
This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather
classic "Pineapple Express." A substantial amount of rain is
possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in
Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some
locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the
East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping
winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding
is not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type
flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to
recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov
5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional
impacts to the coast as this system enters the region, especially
with heavy rains putting additional water into area rivers and
estuaries. Some localized coastal flooding is possible,
particularly for low lying areas and roads around Coos Bay.
Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next week, between
6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not expecting any impactful winter
weather.

Another robust front arrives Thursday, and although it looks
weaker than the previous one, most model guidance suites are
depicting somewhat similar potential for impactful winds and rain.

After a brief break Friday, we are seeing the signs of another
frontal system Saturday/Sunday. There is quite a bit of variation
in model guidance at this time range, so confidence is low, but it
does look like the active pattern shows very little sign of
slowing down as we head into next week. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs...
Current observations show LIFR conditions in the Rogue Valley
including in Medford and IFR conditions at the coast due to incoming
rainfall. Fog has been lifting from the Umpqua Basin and east of the
Cascades this morning.

MVFR and light rain will spread inland into the Umpqua Valley
through the rest of the morning, and into Jackson, Josephine and
western Siskiyou counties this afternoon/evening with the rain and
lower ceilings continuing into early Sunday morning.

Gusty south to southwest winds at 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt
are present at the coast and are accompanied by light to moderate
rain with MVFR becoming the predominant condition. Periods of IFR
are possible in the heavier showers. Coastal winds will diminish
late this afternoon with rain and the lower ceilings persisting into
early Sunday morning. Areas of MVFR/IFR will develop in the west
side valleys and east of the Cascades late Saturday night into
Sunday morning. -9

&&

.MARINE...Updated 215 PM PDT Saturday, November 1, 2025...Winds are
weakening and will turn northerly this evening. Very steep and
hazardous seas north of Gold Beach will be turning to steep seas
this afternoon. Gusty north winds will then follow Sunday. Seas will
remain high and steep through Tuesday. Another active period will
unfold in the middle of next week with gales likely. -9

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 215 PM PDT November 1, 2025,
2025...Hazardous beach conditions continues through 5 PM today. A
lingering northwest swell has combined with another moderate to
heavy long period swell today. This has resulted in large breaking
waves of 20-25 ft. High Surf conditions are possible along the
Southern Oregon Coast again Thursday. Avoid area beaches today.
Impacts could include large breaking waves within the surf zone,
which could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines. Waves could
wash over rocks and jetties, and sweep unsuspecting people out to
see. Never turn your back on the ocean!


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

&&

$$