714
FXUS66 KMFR 221140
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
340 AM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...High pressure is bringing dry weather to the area. A
steep low-level inversion is resulting in fog/low clouds in many
west side valleys with visibility occasionally reduced to below
1/4 of a mile early this morning. Web cams are showing the low
visibility conditions, so we`ve issued a dense fog advisory
through 10 am PST for the Rogue, Illinois and Applegate valleys.
In addition, with temperatures in some areas near or below
freezing, freezing fog is possible. So, please be careful if
traveling this morning with expected reduced visibility and
perhaps some slick spots on roadways, especially elevated
surfaces. Some fog will also be encountered northward along I-5
into Douglas County, especially at higher spots, but it`ll be
mostly low stratus around Roseburg/Sutherlin. Patchy fog is also
present in the Scott and lower Klamath River valleys of western
Siskiyou County and along Highway 395 from Valley Falls to Alkali
Lake as well as the Christmas Valley. All the low clouds/fog
should burn off late this morning or early this afternoon in most
places. High temperatures will be right around normal (where it
stays foggier longer) or a bit above normal (where it is sunnier)
for this time of year.

Dry weather persists tonight and conditions will be similar to
where we are currently. That is to say, expect another round of
low clouds and fog in the valleys west of the Cascades with patchy
fog/freezing fog over the East Side.

The next frontal system will move in on Sunday, with increasing
clouds along and west of the Cascades. Precipitation will likely
begin at the coast around midday, then spread inland during the
afternoon. It appears most areas near and west of the Cascades
will have at least a little light precipitation through Sunday
evening (PoPs peak around 50% here in Medford then) with amounts
ranging from just a couple of hundredths to 0.10" in the I-5
corridor from Medford to Roseburg and as much as 0.20-0.40" from
the coast to the coast range mountains and over to the Cascades
north of Highway 140. Areas south and east of Highway 97 won`t see
much, if any precipitation, out of this front. Snow levels will
drop to 3500-4000 feet by Monday morning, but precipitation will
be long gone by then. Any accumulating snow, what little of it
there is (2" or less), will be mostly above 5500 feet in the
Cascades Sunday night.

Onshore flow could maintain some post-frontal showers in NW
sections Monday, but most areas will dry out behind the front.

A warm front will pass by to our north Tuesday/Tuesday night.
Current forecast is for increasing precip chances, especially to
NW sections then, but some guidance shows flat upper ridging,
which would keep most of the precip to our north. We`ll continue
to monitor and make updates. Still looks like snow levels remain
high through at least mid next week, which is good for holiday
travelers. -Spilde


&&

.AVIATION...22/12z TAFs...LIFR conditions in fog/low clouds will
impact most west side valley locations through this morning. With
offshore flow in place, extent of LIFR conditions along the coast
is more limited. Expect improvement to VFR in the west side
valleys later this morning or early this afternoon, between
17-21z, lingering the longest in the Umpqua Basin. VFR conditions
should then prevail through this evening, but with a return of
valley LIFR low clouds/fog overnight. -Spilde


&&


.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Saturday, November 22, 2025...North
winds will gradually ease over the waters today, but steep seas
will continue through Sunday due to long period west to northwest
swell. A weak front will bring a brief period of south to
southwest winds Sunday along with some rain. Sub- advisory north
winds will return Sunday night into Monday. A warm front will pass
by to the north Tuesday and this will bring southerly winds again
at midweek. -Spilde


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 300 AM PST Saturday, November 22, 2025...A
long period swell is arriving over the waters currently. Wave
heights of 10-15 feet with a period of 17 seconds will bring an
increased risk of sneaker waves at the beaches this weekend. A
Beach Hazards Statement is now in effect for sneaker waves that
can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal. These
waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock
people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can
also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone
caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the
greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides
if venturing out onto the beaches this weekend. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 pm PST Sunday for
     ORZ021-022.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 am PST Saturday for ORZ024-ORZ026.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

MAS/MAS/MAS