210
FXUS66 KMFR 111028
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
228 AM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery early this morning is showing
plenty of low stratus and fog in the west side valleys and along
the coast. I couldn`t find any evidence of precipitation in our
forecast area from yesterday`s weak strung out frontal system, but
it did serve to deepen the marine layer across NW sections of the
CWA. So, what was largely fog yesterday morning north of the
Rogue-Umpqua Divide (Roseburg/North Bend) is stratus this
morning. Shallower moisture exists south of Glendale, into the
Rogue/Illinois valleys, portions of the Applegate valley and the
valleys of central/western Siskiyou County. Fog in those locations
is reducing visibility to one quarter of a mile or less. As
such, we`ve issued a Dense Fog Advisory again until 9 am PST this
morning. Use caution when driving and slow down in low/poor
visibility. Pedestrians/cyclists should also wear bright or
reflective clothing to assist drivers in poor visibility
conditions.

After the fog burns off, expect another dry, mild afternoon with
high temperatures largely in the 60s. Even a few spots could get
close to or surpass 70F. Expect another night of west side valley
fog tonight into Wednesday morning.

Pattern shifts quickly Wednesday as a deep offshore trough swings
toward the coast. Models continue to show a fairly strong
pressure gradient (MFR-RDD) and mid-level flow initially of
(~50-60 kt) during the day Wednesday. This will result in
strengthening south winds along the coast and also in the usual
spots -- the Shasta Valley and over the East Side. It doesn`t
appear it will come together soon enough to meet High Wind
criteria along the coast, but gusts of 45-55 mph are expected.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop Wednesday farther inland,
especially in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side, but also
perhaps here in the Rogue Valley. Models show mid-level flow
increasing to and peaking at 65-75 kt Wednesday evening/night, so
High Wind Watches remain in effect for the Shasta Valley and the
East Side. These will likely be upgraded to warnings later today.
The Rogue Valley from Ashland to Medford and the Klamath Basin
around Klamath Falls have a near 90 percent chance of reaching
Wind Advisory criteria (>45 mph gusts). So, expect additional
wind headlines to be coming soon.

Once again, snow levels will initially be very high (~8000 ft),
so precipitation, even in the mountains, will begin as rain. It
does look like snow levels drop some, but not as much as it looked
like yesterday. So, down to around 6000 feet by Thursday morning,
then as low as 4000-4500 feet Thursday night into Friday. Some
snow will accumulate above 5000 feet, but now it looks like 1-3"
with locally 3-5" up around Crater Lake. In terms of rainfall,
this looks like another Coast Range and into Siskiyou County
event, where amounts of 1-3 inches will be common. West Side
valleys will have a good amount of downsloping, so amounts there
will be less than that -- generally 0.25-0.50" (bulk of precip
coming very late Wednesday night into Thursday). But, post-
frontal showers continue Thursday in moist, onshore flow. It`ll
remain breezy and turn cooler compared to earlier in the week.

Trough axis shifts east of the Cascades Friday, so precipitation
chances should lower. It also doesn`t look quite as chilly Friday
with high temps closer to the seasonal normals (low to mid 50s
west side and upper 40s east side). A closed low will settle
southward into SoCal/NW Mexico Friday night into Saturday and this
will allow a ridge axis to form over us. There is a warm front in
there that could bring some higher PoPs and light precip from the
coast to the Cascades, but from the Umpqua Divide south and
eastward, Saturday should be dry and milder.

Models lift the main moisture axis to our north Saturday/Saturday
night, but the next front is forecast to approach the coast
Sunday. -Spilde/BPN


&&

.AVIATION...11/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and for inland valleys
expect areas of IFR/LIFR in fog and low stratus through Tuesday
morning. This includes for North Bend, Roseburg, Medford and
Klamath Falls. Conditions are expected to clear to VFR for most
areas between 17-20z. Areas of IFR/LIFR stratus/fog will redevelop
this evening/overnight in the west side valleys and along the
coast. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Monday, November 10, 2025...Swell
dominated seas will diminish into Tuesday evening. A strong front
will bring increasing south winds on Wednesday. These winds could
reach gale force, and steep to very steep seas are likely Wednesday
into early Thursday. A Gale Watch has been issued. This will be
followed by a high and steep west swell Thursday into Friday.
There is some uncertainty with movement of low presure Thu
night/Fri. While most guidance moves this system onshore into NW
Oregon, a minority of solutions swings it far enough south to
bring the potential for another period of gales. We`ll continue to
monitor that and update as necessary. Either way, high seas will
be expected through late this week, before conditions briefly
improve on Saturday. The next front is forecast to arrive Sunday
with increasing south winds and seas. -Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ024-026.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night for ORZ030-031.

CA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM PST Wednesday for CAZ080-081.

     High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through late Wednesday
     night for CAZ081-085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through
     late Wednesday night for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$

MAS/MAS/MAS