345
FXUS66 KMFR 191159
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
359 AM PST Wed Nov 19 2025

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Key Points:

* Overall, minimal impacts expected through early next week
* Next round of precipitation today through Thursday
    - Coastal areas: 0.50"-1.00"; elsewhere <0.50"
    - Light snowfall mainly for elevations above 5K ft
* Precipitation chances Friday through the weekend
    - Most areas will be precipitation free
    - Coast/Umpqua Basin only small chances
* Precipitation returns for most areas Monday/Tuesday

Further Details:

For today, fog/low clouds and frost/freeze potential this morning
for westside areas. However, uncertainty does exist as fog could
limit radiational cooling and hence low temperatures may not be
cold enough for some areas/elevations. On the other hand, the low
level moisture could bring a higher risk for frost (maybe ice)
formation. Some areas have reported temperatures below 34 degrees
with brief freezing fog, but those areas have actually come up in
temperature as of writing this. This doesn`t appear to be
widespread and consistent, but will continue to monitor in case a
freezing fog advisory is required. That said, caution should be
taken driving in areas with temperatures at/or below freezing
temperatures.

Deterministic models are in fairly good agreement with the system
coming in today through tomorrow. Differences come into play
Thursday night when models try to handle the cut-off low
developing. This doesn`t appear to have much influence on our
precipitation chances as timing and amounts continue to be
consistent between guidance. We will see moisture advection and
PVA spread across the forecast area this afternoon/early evening,
resulting in precipitation spreading west to east through Thursday
afternoon. Not expecting any hazards through this stretch of
precipitation other than nuisance type flooding like ponding on
roadways. Areas with poor drainage could also see water build up;
however, we are not anticipating widespread flooding.

We will likely see a break activity through the weekend with
precipitation chances confined to coastal areas and the Umpqua
Basin. However, by far and large the forecast areas does appear to
be mostly precipitation-free through the weekend once the
aforementioned system exits the region Thursday night. More
widespread precipitation chances will return Monday/Tuesday.

Looking ahead, there are signs for a potential cold airmass to
infiltrate the region around Thanksgiving (25th-27th). Ensemble
members have backed off slightly from 24 hours ago, so confidence
has decreased slightly. This will be interesting to keep an eye
on because some westside areas still haven`t had a freeze. For
perspective, when record keeping began in 1911 for Medford, there
has only been a freeze this late (Nov 25th-27th) twice. The record
latest freeze for Medford is 2016 when a freeze finally came on
Dec 5th. Second latest was Nov 29th in 1937. Third latest was Nov
21st in 2013. Since 1911, the mean is Oct 19th for the first
freeze.

-Guerrero

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

Fog and/or low clouds are impacting the terminals this morning.
However, conditions are expected to improve late this afternoon.
An incoming system will bring precipitation which will spread west
to east today and tonight. This will impact all terminals with
MVFR clouds and some visibility restrictions. Otherwise, generally
expecting light wind speeds through this stretch.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday, November 19, 2025...A
frontal system is expected this afternoon with steep wind-driven
seas. After the front passes and winds diminish, large longer
period swell arrives Thursday into Friday. Guidance is showing the
swell peaking in the 16-19 foot range at 15 seconds Thursday
evening. A somewhat active pattern then continues through the
weekend, with persistent elevated seas of slightly higher than 10
feet.

&&


.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$