615
FXUS66 KMFR 230650
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1050 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025

...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections...

.AVIATION...23/06z TAFs...LIFR conditions in fog/freezing fog in
west side valleys will persist through around 17-18Z Sunday morning,
with patches of LIFR freezing fog also likely in east side valleys
early in the morning (around 13-17Z). This will be in the same areas
as occurred Saturday morning, including the Rogue, Umpqua, and
Illinois valleys.

A weak front will push into the west side Sunday morning, which
could lift these low conditions earlier than occurred Saturday
morning. But, it will also bring increasing MVFR conditions and
obscuration of the higher terrain from west to east Sunday afternoon
into the evening. Given the front will be weak, generally light
winds are expected through the TAF period, with some light rain
developing at the coast Sunday morning, spreading to the southern
Oregon Cascades during the late afternoon and continuing Sunday
night.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 815 PM PST Saturday, November 22, 2025...North
winds will continue to ease over the waters this evening, but steep
seas will continue through Sunday due to long period west to
northwest swell. A weak front will bring a brief period of south to
southwest winds Sunday along with some rain. Sub- advisory north
winds return Sunday night into Monday. A warm front will pass by to
the north Tuesday and this will bring another round of southerly
winds around midweek.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 352 PM PST Sat Nov 22 2025/

DISCUSSION...Mild weather continues over northern California and
southern Oregon today. With fog clearing out this morning, surface
heating and lingering moisture may allow for fog to return to low-
lying areas late tonight into early Sunday morning. Complicating
these chances is an approaching weak front from the Pacific. As this
front approaches, light southerly winds may bring just enough mixing
to either clear out early morning fog or prevent development
altogether. This front will bring rainfall to the coast by late
Sunday morning, with light showers moving inland through the
afternoon into early Monday morning. Coastal and Cascades terrain
may get 0.5 inches of precipitation in this timeframe, while most
other areas will see lower amounts. Snow levels of 5500-6500 feet
will keep most snowfall to the highest peaks and ridgelines.
Cascades passes may see very light snow showers on Sunday evening
into early Monday morning.

THe rest of Monday should be free of activity. A passing warm front
and onshore flow may bring some midweek showers to northernmost
parts of the area. Slight shower chances (20-40%) develop over Coos,
Douglas, and northern lake and Klamath County from Tuesday afternoon
into Thursday. Any rain that falls would likely be measured in the
hundreths. Warm air behind the Tuesday front will bring daytime
highs 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms, and cloud cover may
help to mitigate fog chances.

Uncertainty remains for the end of the week and beyond.
Deterministic imagery shows a trough descending into the continental
US. In these outcomes, showers miss the area and pass over Idaho and
Montana as the trough deepens. Ensemble guidance for the ECMWF and
GFS models show some agreement in some precipitation for most areas
Saturday into Sunday, but the variety of timing and amounts offer
little to build confidence in what that something is. There`s more
agreement on northerly flow aloft bringing a cooling trend for
Friday through Sunday. With that cooler air expected, looking for
more certainty in the occurrence or absence of precipitation will
be a focal point of future forecasts. -TAD


BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 PM PST Saturday, November
22, 2025...Wave heights of 10-15 feet with a period of 17 seconds
will bring an increased risk of sneaker waves at the beaches this
weekend. A Beach Hazards Statement is now in effect for sneaker
waves that can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal.
These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can suddenly knock
people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. They can
also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone
caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any time, the
greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of the tides
if venturing out onto the beaches this weekend.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through Sunday evening for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$