354
FXUS66 KMFR 262239
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
239 PM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...A warm front has lifted north with high pressure and
mostly clear skies across the area this afternoon. A low pressure
center will near the coast of Washington and northern Oregon
tonight with a cold front moving onshore by Thursday morning. This
front will be weaken as it moves inland. Models and ensembles
continue to support moderate to high (60-100%) chances for light
rain along the coast, inland into the coastal mountains, Umpqua
Valley, southwest Josephine County and into the south- central
Oregon Cascades. Low chances (10-30%) for rain are also expected
for the Rogue Valley in Jackson County, northeast Josephine
County, far western Siskiyou County, and far northern Klamath
County. East of the Cascades, expect dry but breezy to gusty
conditions on Thursday.

Then, Thursday night the low moves inland north of the area. This
will bring onshore flow and  a trough over the area. Ensembles
show chances for rain showers continuing along the coast (70-95%)
along the coast and inland across Josephine (30-60% chance),
Douglas County (70-90% chance) and across the south- central
Cascades (35-75%). Low chances for showers (10-40%) are expected
across Jackson, far western Siskiyou and northern Klamath
counties as well. Precipitation will be light and snow levels
will be high, around 6000-7500 feet on Thursday, lowering slightly
around 5500-6000 feet Thursday night. So expect little if any
snow is expected, except for higher peaks in the south-central
Oregon Cascades. Light scattered showers linger into Friday across
northwest portions of the CWA, before tapering off during the
afternoon.

On Saturday, models show a building high pressure ridge offshore
with a shortwave trough moving down from the north late Saturday
and Saturday night. This trough may be far enough east that little
if any showers will develop over the area. The National Blend of
Models is showing low chances (10-30%) for light rain and higher
mountain snow across the area during this period Saturday
afternoon and Saturday night. We will continue to monitor and
update the forecast as confidence increases.

Sunday and Monday, models are trending towards a high pressure
ridge building inland and a longwave trough east of the area. This
will likely bring stable and dry weather to the area with cool to
cold overnight/morning temperatures. Then, Monday night and
Tuesday, ensembles support a shortwave trough moving down into the
region from the northwest, bringing chances for light rain and
mountain snow. However, there remains significant variability in
the details for this period.


&&

.AVIATION....AVIATION...26/12z TAFs...Along the coast, areas of light rain and
local MVFR are possible today, mainly north of North Bend. This
evening and tonight, a front will move onshore and bring drizzle and
rain along the coast with areas of MVFR and local IFR. These
conditions will continue into Thursday morning. Inland, VFR
conditions will be the predominate condition through this evening
and likely through the overnight period. The incoming front is
expected to bring increased high and mid clouds tonight west of the
Cascades. However, if there a period of clearing in the late evening
and overnight period, local IFR in valley fog is possible for
valleys in west of the Cascades. Overall, confidence is low in this
occuring so have kept mention out of the Medford and Roseburg TAFs.
Then, early Thursday morning, local MVFR in low clouds and rain is
expected to develop in the Umpqua Valley, including at Roseburg.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, November 26, 2025...A
brief period of improved conditions continue this afternoon as
southerly winds briefly hover below advisory criteria today.
Southerly winds increase again tonight into Thursday morning as a
cold front passes through the region. Meanwhile, a heavy northwest
swell will move into the waters late Thursday morning and
afternoon. These conditions will bring the return of steep seas to
all waters, with very steep seas north of Cape Blanco due to a
mix of wind waves and the heavy swell.

Conditions improve late Friday as winds turn northerly then persist
through the weekend and into early next week. Conditions hazardous
to small craft could return south of Cape Blanco on Sunday.
Meanwhile, a long period swell (peaking around 6 to 9 ft at 16 to 19
seconds) builds in the waters early next week, which could maintain
advisory level conditions into early next week.



&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4
     AM PST Friday for PZZ350-356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$