500
FXUS66 KMFR 202232
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
232 PM PST Thu Nov 20 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows instability clouds along with a
few isolated showers over Curry County. Any showers will end late
this afternoon.

The upper low will move south into California tonight with dry
weather likely. However, low level moisture from Wednesday night and
Thursday morning precipitation will be high, which could lead to
favorable conditions for low clouds and fog formation for the
interior west side valleys, and east side valleys later tonight and
probably lasting through most, if not all of Friday morning.

Friday through Saturday is likely to be dry as upper ridging nudges
in from the west as the cutoff low moves towards southern
California. The upper flow will likely remain westerly with the
ridge remaining over the area Saturday. This will likely keep the
storm track farther north, this keeping our area dry.

As mentioned in the morning update, the previous operational models
and ensembles runs were suggesting an earlier arrival of
precipitation. The latest run continues to show this along with some
of the higher res models showing evidence of this towards the end of
the model period. This is a change from the last few days.

The general consensus is for the front to move into the northwest
part of the forecast area late Sunday morning, then move southeast
Sunday afternoon. So while the timing of the front is now sooner,
the amount of moisture has not varied that much. Most of the
precipitation will be Sunday afternoon, then the front is expected
to weaken as it moves southeast Sunday evening and night. This will
keep rainfall amounts in check, even for the more favorable areas.

The front will weaken further as it as it moves through the area
Monday morning, and it`s possible it could dry out Monday afternoon.

A cooler and drier airmass will follow Monday night and could
possibly last into the peak travel day for the Thanksgiving Holiday
weekend. However, the peak holiday travel day (next Wednesday) could
be a bit of grey area with some of the operational models and
ensemble members suggesting there will be precipitation Wednesday
afternoon and night. So far it looks like snow levels will be high
enough to keep snow concerns limited to the higher passes, but the I-
5 corridor at Siskiyou Summit should be okay. However, it`s a ways
out and details could change in the coming days, so stay tuned for
updates. -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...20/18z TAFs...Isolated convective showers will linger
through 21z along the coast and portions of Josephine, Curry, Coos
and Douglas County. Convective showers and cloud cover will diminish
early this afternoon. VFR conditions will continue through this
evening, then low clouds with fog are expected for the inland
terminals due to stable conditions and ample low level moisture with
IFR and brief periods of LIFR conditions that will likely last until
the end of the TAF period. -Petrucelli


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Thursday, November 20, 2025...Area seas
are starting to increase as long-period westerly swell builds. This
swill will support steep seas in all waters, with areas of localized
very steep and hazardous seas possible in waters beyond 30 nm from
shore. Seas of 14 to 17 feet at 15 seconds are possible today. Seas
will decrease through Saturday morning before another westerly long-
period swell arrives. The Saturday swell looks to have lower wave
heights, which looks to keep seas steep into early next week. A
period of below advisory seas is possible into midweek. -TAD


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 PM PST Thursday, November
20, 2025...Guidance is showing a long period swell arriving today
and persisting through Friday morning. With swells peaking in the 15-
17 foot range (15 sec period) this evening, this will result in 20-
22 foot breaking waves in the surf zone. A high surf advisory has
been issued. Beaches and jetties will be hazardous areas, and some
coastal erosion is possible.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST
     Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$