259
FXUS66 KMFR 092319
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
319 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025

.UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.


&&

.AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs...VFR is expected across the area into this
evening, then areas of fog will develop in valleys west of the
Cascades tonight into Monday morning. Along the coast, expect area
of fog with IFR/LIFR tonight, lifting to MVFR/IFR in low clouds as a
weak front moves on shore in the morning. Low clouds and fog across
inland areas will clear to VFR around 17-19z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 228 PM PST Sun Nov 9 2025/

DISCUSSION...Like a broken record, we started off with fog once
again for west side valleys. However, there was a difference with
the Rogue Valley clearing out quicker this morning (by around 9
AM) while the other valleys took longer to lift and were closer to
noon. Highs in the upper 60s were forecast for more west side
spots, but I am looking for the coast to reach this while the west
side valleys reach the mid-60s. Tonight will have more onshore
flow which could bring marine stratus to the coast, bringing the
risk of fog near North Bend as early as this evening. The Umpqua
Basin will follow suit with fog developing in the evening, and
other west side valleys will see fog between 3-5 AM.

After the fog tomorrow morning, there will be mostly clear to partly
cloudy skies and more 60s for highs. There will be a weak front that
moves in, but these rain chances Monday into Tuesday are forecast to
stay offshore, with the exception of a stray shower in Coos County
and northern Douglas County. The next chance for more activity will
begin Wednesday into Thursday and will bring more wind and
precipitation. Snow levels are expected to start around 7,000`-
8,000` and fall to 5,000`-6,000` Thursday afternoon, meaning most of
this will fall as rain. The rain will start to move in Wednesday
afternoon and be heaviest later Wednesday afternoon and night.

Winds have been adjusted for the next front that arrives Wednesday
into Thursday, mainly for east side and the Shasta valley. These
winds will be coming in from the south, which brings a concern for
funneling into the Shasta Valley. Forecast 700 mb winds Wednesday
are reaching 50-55 kt, and this helps show that strong gusts are
possible there. Likewise, 700 mb winds are forecast to reach 60-65
kt east of the Cascades on higher terrain, including near Summer
Lake, so this has been adjusted to show a potential of stronger
gusts near 35-45 kt for now. On Friday rain chances are mostly
along and west of the Cascades. Starting Friday night there are
more differences with how much coverage there should be as the EC
is favoring a more widespread precipitation route. This will be
reviewed in the coming days with CAMs coming in. -9


MARINE...Updated 100 PM PDT Sunday, November 9, 2025...South
winds and swell dominated seas will remain below advisory criteria
into Monday, though expect increasing southwest swell today. Winds
turn northerly on Monday, and could approach advisory strength south
of Cape Blanco late Monday into Tuesday, resulting in borderline
conditions hazardous to small craft. More impactful winds, seas and
weather are expected to return Wednesday, with gusty winds and high
to very high and steep seas possible through Friday. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$