847
FXUS66 KMFR 302343
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
343 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...01/00z TAFs...Aside from persistent MVFR stratus in the
Umpqua Basin, VFR conditions prevail across the region with high
level cirrus streaming overhead. Offshore flow across the area
should keep fog development limited along the coast and east of the
Cascades/Klamath Basin, so VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the TAF period there. There could be a few hours overnight
for some scattered LIFR conditions at North Bend/Coquille Basin, but
easterly flow should keep this from persisting.

For the Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys and the Umpqua Basin,
IFR/LIFR conditions are likely tonight into Monday morning, then
clear to VFR by 18-21z. High level cloud cover is expected to
continue overnight and this could limit the extent of the fog
development and persistence. VFR conditions are expected to prevail
across northern California through the TAF period. /BR-y

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 247 PM PST Sun Nov 30 2025/

DISCUSSION...High pressure over the Pacific Ocean has built a
resilient ridge, with the front edge remaining over the area. With
this pattern, seasonal temperatures and mild weather looks to
continue through most of the week. Northerly or northwesterly flow
will keep midlevel or high level clouds moving through the sky
during the day. Drier air over the area tonight looks to bring
cooler temperatures into early Monday morning, and

An "inside slider" (shortwave troughs that travel down the ridge and
to the southeast into a deeper continental trough) may interrupt the
general pattern early in the week. The first slider approaches on
Monday, raising overnight lows into early Tuesday morning. Some
slight chances for rainfall (25-50%) are present along the coast and
northern Douglas County during the day Tuesday. Any rain that does
fall in these areas will likely be measured in the hundreths of an
inch. Overnight lows will drop across the area Tuesday night into
early Wednesday, and areas along and east of the Cascades will see
cooler daytime highs on Wednesday. A significantly weaker shortwave
trough is in the upper pattern late Wednesday, with some imagery
showing the trough traveling farther east. Unless this trough
deepens and shifts west, it looks to have little to no impact.

The NBM shows signs of precipitation along the coast and Cascades as
early as Thursday afternoon, but this may be optimistic by a day.
Deterministic imagery for the ECMWF and GFS models show a cold front
managing to flatten the Pacific ridge enough to bring some showers
west of and along the Cascades late Friday into Saturday. There`s
some divergence beyond, with the ECMWF drying out by Sunday and the
GFS staying active through the weekend and into next week.
Meteograms for both models generally support their respective
deterministic patterns, although the ECMWF ensemble has ~20% of its
members showing continuing rainfall. If the GFS outcome holds true,
precipitation amounts and snow levels will be a focus of future
forecasts. -TAD

MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November 30, 2025...Northerly
winds will increase this afternoon/evening, with gusts south of
Port Orford reaching Small Craft Advisory strength. The strongest
north winds will shift to the outer waters south of Cape Blanco
tonight, with steep seas expected to persist over the southern
waters at least into Wednesday. Seas may also become steep north
of Cape Blanco on Tuesday. An incoming long period west swell is
expected to peak at 7 to 11 ft Monday into Tuesday with a period
around 21 seconds. Conditions may briefly improve for Thursday,
but the pattern is likely to turn more active late in the week.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 100 PM PST Sunday, November
30, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first
arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday
morning. This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 11 ft at 16
to 18 seconds Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. While seas will
be steep, high surf conditions are not expected along beaches. If
you have plans to visit the coast on Monday, please be aware of this
sneaker wave potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to
the beaches for another day. These waves can wash over rocks and
jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep
them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which
could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves
can occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide.
Please be aware of the tides if venturing out onto the beaches.
Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean!

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PST this
     evening for PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM PST Wednesday for
     PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ376.

&&

$$