503
FXUS62 KMHX 021736
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1236 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak coastal low forms late today impacting the area overnight
into early Monday with rain, heavy at times near the coast. High
pressure builds back over the Carolinas in the low`s wake to
drift offshore Wednesday. Dry cold front crosses the FA late WED
night/early THU with SFC ridge building to the N into late
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Temps have cratered once again under ideal
radiational cooling regime. Frost advisory in effect for the wrn
and srn counties until 8am. Coldest spots will be outer coastal
plain as well as areas of Onslow County near Hofmann, eastward
to places adjacent to the Croatan forest, where lows bottom out
mainly in the mid 30s, with some iso low 30s in sheltered
locales.

Today expect sunny skies this morning, then increasing clouds
through the afternoon as combo of upper low digs acrs the TN
Valley, while coastal trough sharpens offshore. Inc high clouds
from the west, and mid clouds from the sw will keep temps from
rising any higher than the mid 60s. Winds remain light nerly in
the 5-10 mph range. Late this afternoon, some light rain may
start spreading northward off the Atlantic into the Crystal
Coast region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Aforementioned approaching upper low will spur
cyclogenesis off the SE Coast this evening through the
overnight. Periods of rain quickly overspread ENC after the
dinner hour. X-sections indicate large fgen circulation in the
mid levels and strong isentropic signature acrs ENC, prompting
entire area to have categorical pops >= 80% tonight. At the sfc,
coastal trough/low is forecast by model consensus to ride up or
just adjacent to the OBX overnight. Have introduced heavy rain
here and adjusted QPF upwards, now forecasting around 1/2 - 1"
coastal plain counties, to 1.5 - 2.5" ern zones. LPPM from
02/00Z HREF suggest possibility for up to 3" if any convective
cells can migrate ashore. Will keep chc thunder mainly Downeast
Carteret through the OBX, while interior zones will be thunder
free and remain in cool sector. Lows much milder, with readings
in the 50s region- wide.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 0230 Sunday...

Key Messages:

  -  FA lies on the cool side of a low working up the Carolina
     coast monday, representing the only chance of rain during
     the work week.
  -  King Tide cycle this week brings elevated water levels and
     potential for minor coastal flooding
  -  High pressure through much of the period with dry cold
     FROPA middle of the week.

Early Week...Stout positively tilted trough aloft shifts Eward
with cutoff midlevel low traversing SC pushing offshore
deepening the coastal trough to a weak coastal low at the SFC
located somewhere just off, or perhaps directly over the
Crystal Coast, moving NEward through the day Monday. Rain
ongoing from Sunday night, heaviest along the immediate coast
early wanes through the day as the low pulls further away from
the MidAtlantic coast. Upper ridge centered over the Nern Gulf
keeps flow aloft zonal while strengthening SFC high to drifts
Eward across the MS River Valley and eventually off the coast of
the Carolinas Tues night.

Wednesday through end of week....WED, the SFC high furthers its
trip offshore, turning the early week Nerly low level flow
Serly leading to warmer conditions ahead of the next trough
aloft working Eward across the Mid- Atlantic WED night THU
morning. The trough will usher a SFC low across the Great Lakes
toward New England which will drag a dry cold front through the
FA at the same time. Another ridge builds in the wake of the
front toward DelMarVA leading to Nerly SFC flow regime and
cooler temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Monday morning/...
As of 1230 PM Sun...VFR conditions are noted across ENC this
afternoon with just some mid level stratus building into the
Crystal Coast/OBX ahead of a mesoscale complex of rain and
thunderstorms offshore. While we do have radar returns, general
thinking is TAF terminals remain precip free this afternoon as
it is very dry aloft and will take some time to moisten the
atmosphere especially the further inland you go. Expecting
primarily VFR conditions through just about all of the afternoon
with increasing rain chances closer to 22/23Z primarily across
EWN/OAJ terminals. As we get into this evening expect lower
clouds to build in from the south and west as low pressure
develops in off the coast and pushes NE`wards with MVFR ceilings
expected across all terminals by 03Z tonight and across all of
ENC by 06Z at the latest. Then expect ceilings to lower even
further around the 4-6Z timeframe to IFR with mainly IFR
ceilings expected at all TAF sites into Mon morning. In addition
to this, widespread rain and isolated thunderstorm activity is
forecast starting tonight and persisting into this morning.
Think any tstm activity would be east of the TAF sites so did
not include this in this issuance. A return to MVFR and VFR
ceilings is then forecast late Mon morning into Mon afternoon as
the aforementioned low pulls away from the area which would
also end any precip threat. While not explicitly stated there
is a low but non zero threat for some LLWS especially across the
OBX this evening and again on Mon morning as the low approaches
the area and then pulls away

LONG TERM /Monday afternoon through Friday/...
As of 0300 Sunday...


Key Messages...

  -  Sub-VFR conditions Mon improving through the day
  -  VFR flight cats persist through rest of work week once
     coastal departs to the NE

Coastal low pressure system brings widespread rain, heaviest
along coast, and lower clouds and vis to the FA. More benign
weather and VFR conditions are then expected by Tue and into
Wednesday as aforementioned low pulls away from ENC and high
pressure builds overhead. Dry cold front crosses WED night with
high pressure again building over ECONUS late week.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 630 AM Sun...Have added nrn waters north of Oregon Inlet
to SCA suite, as support from ECMWF and WWIV wave models support
seas of 5-7 ft developing here late tonight into Mon AM. No
other changes.

Prev disc...As of 0300 Sunday...Good boating conditions slowly
deteriorate second half of the day SUN as coastal trough
sharpens ahead of approaching upper low. Winds will gradually
increase out of the E-NE through Sunday in response, increasing
to 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt likely after sunset building
2-3ft seas early to 3-5ft this evening.

SCA conditions develop for coastal waters around sunset tonight
as coastal low develops bringing with it periods of heavy rain
with some rumbles of thunder possible over warmer GStream
waters.

LONG TERM /Monday into Friday/...
As of 0300 Sunday...Seas further build Monday as deepening
coastal low works NEward up the NC coast bringing widespread
shower and isolated thunderstorm activity. Winds become more
NWerly once low pressure center gets NE of area waters with
winds and seas remaining elevated. High pressure then begins to
build in from the west Tue pushing aforementioned low further
out to sea resulting in winds and seas briefly laying down. SFC
high drifts offshore Wed turning winds SWerly ahead of a dry
cold front that will cross area waters late WED night/early
Thursday morning representing the next chance for SCA
conditions. High pressure remaining N of the area drifts towards
DelMarVA late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ135-137-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 4 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...CEB/RCF
MARINE...CEB