276
FXUS62 KMHX 261817
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
117 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the area tonight. This front will
be followed up by a reinforcing cold front late Thursday. High
pressure then builds in over the weekend. High pressure shifts
offshore early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH today/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - One more day of well above normal temperatures today

 - Turning colder tonight

 - Cold and dry conditions expected over Thanksgiving

A warm front will continue to lift quickly north early this
morning, pushing well north of the area by this afternoon.
Meanwhile, a cold front (currently moving through the Ohio
Valley), will be approaching the area by early this evening.
Despite widespread cloudcover, continued southerly flow and
building low-level thicknesses will support one more day of
above to well above normal highs. Where breaks in the clouds
occur, highs could near 80 degrees for some inland locations.
For Crystal Coast beaches, warm air advecting over the cooler
shelf waters may lead to a brief period of patchy, dense fog
this morning before stronger southerly winds develop. Those
cooler shelf waters may also temper highs in that area some as
well. Still above normal, but not as warm as further inland.

During the daytime hours today, it still looks like an overall
lack of appreciable forcing should limit the risk of deep
convection, and severe weather is not anticipated. It may even
be tough to get much in the way of showers to develop. The
forecast will continue to reflect a chance of showers and
thunderstorms, but it appears that rainfall amounts will be
limited.

The above-mentionedcold front will move through tonight
(10pm-1am timeframe), and will usher in much drier and colder
air. Any shower or thunderstorm risk will quickly end from west
to east in the wake of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Tonight/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

A dry, cold airmass will settle into the Carolinas over the
Thanksgiving holiday. Highs are expected to top out in the 40s
and 50s Thursday and Friday, which is a solid 10-20 degrees
below normal for late November. Overnight lows are expected to
dip into the 20s and 30s. The coldest period of this airmass is
expected to be Friday and Friday night. Of note, with high
pressure overhead Friday night, excellent radiational cooling
conditions may allow some inland areas of the coastal plain to
fall into the upper teens.

Please see the Fire Weather section below for additional
information on the dry and breezy conditions expected on Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Monitoring the potential for meaningful rainfall next week

The cold airmass from Thanksgiving is expected to begin to
moderate over the weekend as southerly return flow develops.
This will occur in advance of a positively-tilted upper trough
that is forecast to develop from the Southwest U.S. into the
Central U.S. Within this regime, medium range guidance shows
some significant differences regarding individual shortwaves
that are forecast to traverse the Southeast U.S. It`s a pattern
worth keeping an eye on as there is a decent signal for coastal
low development, especially early to mid next week. This signal
shows up in both deterministic and machine learning guidance.
This pattern typically carries a higher level of uncertainty,
though, as guidance often struggles with the evolution of
shortwaves as they eject out of the base of the trough.

At face value, the latest signal in deterministic and machine
learning guidance suggests an increased risk of meaningful
rainfall, and the forecast will reflect this potential.

Temperatures are expected to moderate by Sunday, but may then
get pulled back down if more persistent northeasterly flow
redevelops next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1 PM Wed...Cold front currently entering WNC will push
eastward and cross ENC this evening. Gusty swrly winds ahead of
the front will weaken with loss of diurnal heating late this
afternoon. Short duration of tempo MVFR early this afternoon
quickly scatter by late afternoon, with skies becoming skc this
evening.

Thu through Sat...Mainly VFR with dry and cold high pres
overhead through early weekend. Bouts of gusty nwrly winds due
to strong CAA both Thu afternoon and again Fri afternoon.

Sun through Mon...The high moves offshore Saturday night with
precip chances increasing later on Sun as next cold front
approaches, and along with it a chance for sub VFR cond
developing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages

 - Short duration of dense fog this morning

 - Gale Warning now in effect from Cape Lookout to Cape
   Hatteras

 - Elevated winds and seas to last into tonight, and then
   redevelop Thursday night into Friday

A warm front will continue to lift quickly north through area
waters early this morning. Along and ahead of this feature, a
period of 15- 25kt winds is expected. Just behind the front, the
pressure gradient will relax, leading to a few hours of lighter
winds. During the period of lighter winds, warm air advecting
over the cooler shelf waters may lead to a brief period of dense
fog, with visibilities less than 1SM. The best chance appears
to be in/around the Crystal Coast and inland along the Neuse
River.

Eventually, the gradient is expected to quickly restrengthen as
a cold front approaches from the west. Ahead of the front, a
moderate gradient plus shallow to modest mixing should support a
period of 15- 25kt southwesterly winds. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the waters where 25kt wind gusts are the
most likely. Over the warmest coastal waters (Cape Lookout to
Cape Hatteras), frequent gusts of 35-40kt are expected this
afternoon and evening, and the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a
Gale Warning for that area. South of Lookout, and north of
Hatteras, cooler shelf waters should limit the occurrence and
duration of 35kt+ gusts. Therefore, I opted to cancel the Gale
Watch and just go with a strongly worded Small Craft Advisory.

A cold front will cross area waters tonight, putting an end to
the stronger southerly flow. Despite enhanced mixing behind the
front, winds aloft are not expected to be as strong, which
should limit the risk of 25kt+ winds. Because of this, the
current marine headlines will only address the southerly, pre-
frontal winds.

Seas of 4-6ft this morning are expected to build to 5-8ft
through the day and into this evening, then gradually lay down
to 3-5ft by late tonight.

Outlook: A reinforcing shot of cold air and enhanced mixing
will likely lead to another risk of 25kt winds across much of
the ENC waters Thursday night into Friday. Marine headlines are
likely to be issued at a later time for this surge of
northwesterly winds. High pressure then builds in over the
weekend, leading to lighter winds (5-15kt) and lower seas
(2-3ft).

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1 PM Wed...

Key Messages:

 - Fire weather concerns Thursday and Friday with gusty winds
   and low relative humidities.

Eastern NC has been experiencing Moderate to locally Severe
drought conditions with a long duration of little to no
rainfall. Behind a cold front tonight, dry air ushers into the
region, allowing relative humidities to drop into the 20-30%
range Thu afternoon, and 25-35% Fri afternoon. In addition, wind
gusts will be in the 20+ mph each day. Considering the drought
conditions and decreasing greenery as the fall season
progresses, we will see an increased potential for fire weather
concerns.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-152-
     158.
     Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ154-156.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...RM
FIRE WEATHER...TL