144
FXUS62 KMHX 092036
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
336 PM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue building into the area through
tonight. High pressure moves offshore Wednesday ahead of a fast
moving front that will push across the area Wednesday night.
High pressure builds in again Thursday and Friday, then pushes
offshore Friday night ahead of another low pressure system
potentially impacting the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1:20 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Cool and dry

High pressure continues to build into the area today, which has
helped erode clouds over the past few hours. A weak shortwave
is approaching the area and coverage of mid and high clouds
will increase through the evening as the high moves to our south.
Although our winds are expected to become light to calm
overnight, cloud cover is expected to be variable, going in and
out of periods of clear skies and greater cloud coverage, which
will greatly impact how well we radiate. With this being said,
there`s room for lows to drop below the current forecast (upper
20s across the coastal plain and mid 30s to low 40s at the
beaches) should we have longer periods of less cloud cover.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1:20 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Warmer with gusty winds ahead of a dry cold front

A northern stream shortwave will dig across the eastern CONUS
tomorrow with a surface low moving across the Great Lakes
region. A dry cold front will approach the area but won`t pass
ENC until tomorrow night. Ahead of the front, the gradient will
become more pinched and cause an increase in southwest winds.
It`ll be pretty breezy tomorrow afternoon and evening with
10-15 mph winds gusting to 25-30 mph across the coastal plain.
Along the Outer Banks, winds will be 20-30 mph with gusts to 30
to 40 mph. Increasing heights will warm us up a bit, sending
highs into the low to mid 50s across the coastal plain and upper
50s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1:20 PM Tuesday...

Key messages...

 - A dry cold front will cross the area Wednesday night

 - A low pressure system with limited moisture is expected on
   Sunday

Wednesday night...Southwest winds will veer to the northwest
overnight, continuing to gust to 10-15 mph across the coastal
plain and 30-40 mph along the Outer Banks. Our warm up tomorrow
will keep lows slightly milder tomorrow night with temps
expected to reach the mid 30s across the coastal plain and upper
30s to low 40s along the Outer Banks.

Thursday through Friday...We`ll finish out the week with
another round of high pressure. The post-frontal airmass will
leave us with mostly sunny skies on Thursday but keep highs a
few degrees cooler (mid to upper 40s). Lows will be back into
the mid to upper 30s across the coastal plain and mid 30s along
the Outer Banks. A passing shortwave will introduce greater
cloud coverage on Friday, but flow returning to the southwest
will warm us a few degrees with highs ranging from the upper 40s
across northwestern zones to mid 50s along the coast. Lows will
be in the low to mid 30s for much of the area (low 40s coast).

Saturday through Tuesday...Another northern stream shortwave
will move across the upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic through the
weekend. A surface low lifting across the Carolinas will drag a
cold front across the area Sunday evening. The warmest temps of
the period will be Saturday and Sunday ahead of this cold
front, reaching the upper 50s to low 60s both days. While this
FROPA will provide a slightly better opportunity for precip than
our front on Wednesday night, it`ll still be fairly moisture
starved. PoPs are currently slight chance to low end chance
across the area on Sunday, but both the EURO and GFS trended
drier from their 06z to 12z runs. A cooler airmass will build in
behind the front to start next week, knocking highs back down
to the 40s Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 PM Tue...

VFR SKC currently across ENC. A batch of high clouds will stream
through tonight, but rapid clearing is expected again towards
sunrise. A small camp of guidance shows a low-end chance of patchy
shallow fog Wednesday morning, but light/calm winds and drier low-
level conditions are expected to preclude any fog threat at this
time. Swrly winds up to 20 kt out ahead of a cold front Wed
afternoon. The front passes through on the dry side, with VFR
through the weekend expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1:20 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Winds and seas gradually diminish through this evening

 - Southwest winds increase Wednesday and Wednesday night

 - Gales expected for the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet
   starting tomorrow afternoon

 - SCAs elsewhere except for the Pamlico and Pungo Rivers

Today and Wednesday...SCAs are currently in effect for all
coastal waters with subsiding 6-8 ft seas. The SCA south of
Ocracoke Inlet will drop off around midnight as seas drop below
6 ft. 6 footers will linger across the central waters overnight.

10-20 kt NW winds will weaken tonight as they back to the
SW and then ramp up tomorrow morning ahead of an approaching
cold front. SW winds will peak tomorrow evening at
25-30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt across the coastal waters south
of Oregon Inlet. The Gale Watch for these zones has been
upgraded to a Gale Warning starting at 3 PM tomorrow.

The coastal waters north of Oregon Inlet will have a brief
period of sub-SCA conditions between tonight and tomorrow
morning. However, with the period between this current round of
SCA seas and the upcoming round of SCA winds and seas being so
brief, the SCA has been extended to cover both events. SW winds
will increase through tomorrow, peaking in the afternoon at
20-25 kt with gusts to 30+ kt. Seas will build to 4-6 ft.

SW winds across the sounds and Neuse and Bay Rivers will
increase to 15-25 kt with gusts to 25-30 kt, peaking tomorrow
night. SCAs are in effect for these zones starting tomorrow
afternoon.

Thursday through Monday...High pressure will build across the
waters Thursday and Friday, then slide off the coast Saturday.
Conditions are expected to drop below SCA criteria by Thursday
afternoon with descent boating conditions continuing through
Saturday. Our next cold front will pass on Sunday, bringing our
next chance of SCA winds and seas that could last into the start
of next week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ131-230.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 11 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ137.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Thursday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 3 PM Wednesday to 5 AM EST Thursday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM EST Thursday
     for AMZ231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...TL
MARINE...OJC