134
FXUS62 KMHX 070016
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
716 PM EST Sat Dec 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue to build over the Carolinas this
weekend, as a front remains stalled offshore. A cold front will
move through early next week with low pressure developing along
it. High pressure will build back over the area mid week.
Another low and cold front move in late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 645 PM Saturday...

Based on the latest guidance, and current temperature trends,
the mention of freezing fog was expanded to include more of the
coastal plain later this evening into early Sunday morning. The
back edge of the cirrus shield has now reached central NC, and
guidance suggests it will reach ENC around 10pm this evening.
It`s after this point that the probability of fog is expected to
increase, and short-term guidance continues to show a decent
signal for this. We`ll continue to closely monitor trends to
determine if fog headlines are needed, including the potential
for any freezing fog headlines.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Area of isentropically driven -RA cont to
sweep eastward through ENC, with most widespread south of Hwy
70 and little to no rain to the north. This band of lift and
associated rain will shift eastward and weaken by evening, with
a quiet and cool night ensuing. Some patchy to areas of fog
again tonight, with the potential for some patches of fzfg acrs
the nwrd coastal plain counties. Lows in the low 30s away from
the beaches, and in the 30s to near 40 beachfront.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...High pres dominates with temps warming back
into the 50s, still below climo but closer to where we should be
for early Dec. Skies will be partly cloudy to the north, to
mostly cloudy south where an active subtropical jet cont to
stream mid/high clouds through the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sat...Small precip chances Mon, with dry and
seasonably cold mid week. Another weather maker possible by
week`s end.

Monday...The start of next week brings another chc of precip
with passage of cold front expected. Aloft, upper low will swing
through, and spur offshore cyclogenesis late in the day and
evening. Typical cold air chasing moisture scenario, where temps
tumble through late afternoon, but moisture is coming to an end.
There may be some overlap where rain mixes with and changes over
to some snow, but very limited to no impacts expected even if
this low end scenario pans out, as daytime highs will be in the
40s and a `warm` ground would be in place. Mon night lows will
be the coldest of the period, with 20-25 on the mainland, and
30-35 on the beaches and immediate coast.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions across the board
return as high pressure builds back in at the surface behind
Monday`s front and trough axis aloft finally pushes E of the
coast. Highs in the 40s Tue warming back into the 50s Wed as
winds become Sw. Good radiational cooling will bring lows into
the 20s for most of Mainland ENC, with 30s on the beaches and
OBX Tue night/Wed morning.

Friday through Saturday...Next chc for appreciable precip
arrives by week`s end, as next shortwave trough swings through
the Ern CONUS in a cont active synoptic pattern. Due to
uncertainty this far out in details and timing, pops kept at low
chc (30%) or lower for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 645 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Moderate to high confidence in FG formation tonight,
   including a risk of FZFG

Widespread IFR CIGs are ongoing across ENC this evening,
including all TAF sites. The IFR conditions are holding on
longer than previously forecast, and the TAFs have been updated
to reflect this trend. The question, then, is when do low clouds
clear out (if at all), and how quickly will BR/FG form after
that point. There appears to be 2 possible scenarios.

1) Low CIGS continue to linger longer than expected, then
gradually lower through the night with modest reductions to VIS.

2) Low CIGs clear out, and widespread FG develops shortly after
with significant reductions to VIS.

The latest guidance appears to be leaning towards scenario #2,
and the TAFs will reflect this as well. In either scenario, a
mix of IFR and LIFR conditions are expected, and confidence in
IFR/LIFR is now high. The biggest difference between the 2
scenarios appears to be whether or not VIS drops to LIFR, and
whether or not temperatures fall below freezing, allowing a
period of FZFG to develop. At this point, the probability of
FZFG is 20-40% for KOAJ, KISO, and KPGV, and <20% for KEWN.
Given only modest probabilities, I`ve opted to keep FZFG out of
the TAFs for now, but this potential will be closely monitored.
CIGs and VIS should gradually improve Sunday morning, but in
this type of pattern, improvement tends to be slower. I expect
all sites to be back to VFR by Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: By Monday, pattern becomes wet again return to sub-VFR
flight cats likely as the developing low pressure makes it
closest point of approach. VFR conditions are then once again
expected Tue into Wed across ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 3 PM...Latest obs show light nwrly winds in the 5-15 kt
range, and seas of 3-5 ft, highest outer waters. High pressure
will build in from the north through the weekend with stalled
front offshore. Winds become N-NE tonight and Sunday but remain
light. Seas will subside to mainly 2-4 ft tonight, occasionally
up to 5 ft across the outer central waters.

Mon...Backdoor front passes through with a sharp ramp up in nrly
winds. Solid SCA conditions expected, with the possibility for
gales, esp the better mixed Gulf waters offshore south of Cape
Hatteras. A gale watch has been issued where probs for gales
exceed 80%. Seas will quickly inc to 6-10 ft during the day Mon
and remain there through early Tue.

Tue through Thu...Winds and seas relax a bit, though by late
Wed winds turn swrly and inc to 15-25 kt for the sounds and
nearshore waters, and 20-30 kt with potential gale gusts for
the warmer outer waters south of Hatteras.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM/TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RM/SGK
MARINE...TL