


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
429 FXUS62 KMHX 181838 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 238 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure off the coast this evening will continue to push east further into the Atlantic this weekend with the approach of a cold front. This cold front then crosses the area SUnday into Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain. Behind this front mild high pressure builds in through mid next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key Messages... -Quiet weather expected through tonight -Minor coastal flooding possible along Hatteras Island from incoming swell As of 230 PM Sat...A beautiful fall day outside, as clear skies remain prevalent across ENC this afternoon. Temperatures have gotten into the upper 60s to mid 70s across ENC as winds have shifted from the NW to the SW this afternoon allowing WAA to overspread ENC bringing warmer temps to the region today. One thing of note is that we have recently issued a coastal flood and high surf advisory for portions of Hatteras Island for this evenings high tide cycle given latest observations. (See COASTAL FLOOD section for more information) High pressure centered along the Eastern Seaboard today will slide offshore tonight. This will bring light S`rly winds and mostly clear skies to ENC resulting in yet another night of favorable radiational cooling conditions. Though SSW winds will allow dewpoints to rise a bit, followed previous forecast thinking and kept on the cooler side of guidance with temps overnight. Lows falling into the low 50s inland and mid/upper 50s along the coast. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM Sat...Offshore high pressure continues to push further out to sea on Sunday while a cold front begins to approach from the west. This will begin to pinch the pressure gradient across ENC allowing for S`rly winds to increase especially Sun afternoon where gusts up to 20-25 mph will be possible. Front wont begin to track across the area until the overnight hours which will preclude any precip entering into the Coastal Plain during the daylight hours from the west. While some Hi-Res guidance continues to hint at some isolated to widely scattered shower activity tracking in along the coast and OBX from our offshore waters out ahead of the front, chances remain rather low of this actually occuring (15% or less) so have left the area precip free through 00Z Mon. Regardless, increasing cloud cover through the day and temps getting into the 70s are in the cards for Sun. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 2 AM Saturday... Key Messages... - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through Monday morning as a cold front moves through - Mild and dry conditions continue through next week Guidance is in rather good agreement regarding the pattern for next week. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night into early Monday as a quick moving cold front moves across the Southeast. This front will bring a return of cooler temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday/Tuesday. A reinforcing dry cold front is then forecast to push through ENC Tuesday night into early Wednesday with high pressure building in behind the front. This will keep temperatures mild through the end of the coming work week. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/... As of 230 PM Sat...VFR conditions remain noted across ENC this afternoon and are forecast to continue through the period. As we get into tonight, forecast calls for clear skies with light to calm winds resulting in a favorable radiational cooling setup. While this might typically result in a fog threat, given the amount of dry air across ENC tonight, fog threat remains rather low outside of some patchy ground fog at the typical sites (EWN/PGV). Even if ground fog does develop it would be of no operational impact to the TAF sites or the rest of ENC. As we get into Sunday, high clouds begin to build in from the west as the day goes on out ahead of an approaching front. S`rly winds will also be on the increase Sun morning with 15-20 kt S`rly gusts forecast starting around 17/18Z Sun. LONG TERM /Sunday afternoon through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through the coming week with high pressure over the region. A cold front will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday morning, with temporary flight restrictions possible. Cooler and drier weather returns for the rest of the work week as high pressure builds in once more. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Sunday/... As of 245 PM Sat...Latest obs show widespread 5-10 kt SW`rly winds across all waters while 5-8 ft seas with periods around 12-14 sec are noted north of Ocracoke Island as a swell train from a distant strong low out in the central Atlantic continues to impact our waters. 2-5 ft seas noted south of Ocracoke Island. As a result have ongoing SCA`s noted from Duck to Ocracoke this afternooN. While winds will remain light generally at 5-10 kts through tonight, expect aforementioned elevated swell to continue to track S`wards impacting our southern waters bringing 4-6 ft seas south of Ocracoke tonight. As a result have SCA in place starting at 7PM along the rest of our coastal waters. As we continue into Sunday pressure gradient tightens between high pressure to our east and a cold front to our west resulting in increasing S`rly breezes through the day Sun with 10-20 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up to 25 kts forecast Sun afternoon across our coastal waters and 10-15 kt winds with gusts up to 20 kts across the inland sounds and rivers.With swell likely not changing much through the period will continue to see 4-6 ft seas south of Ocracoke and 6-9 ft seas north of Ocracoke through the rest of the period. This will keep ongoing SCA`s across all coastal waters through the period. LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/... As of 2 AM Saturday... Key Messages - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday through Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones. Ensemble probabilities currently suggest a 30-50% chance of gusts to Gale Force Sunday night. Potential for Gales will continue to be monitored. Winds will then turn to the NW Monday behind the front at 10-20 kts, and then continue out of the W/SW at 10-20 kts Tuesday. By Sunday seas increase to 6-10 ft as winds increase ahead of a cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday, and 3-5 ft Tuesday. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 245 PM Sat...Large long period swells may produce minor ocean overwash on vulnerable sections of Highway 12 on Hatteras Island several hours either side of high tide, which will occur around 6 pm. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203- 205. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ205. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 9 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135-231. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RCF SHORT TERM...RCF LONG TERM...ZC AVIATION...RCF/ZC MARINE...RCF/ZC TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX