429
FXUS62 KMHX 181838
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
238 PM EDT Sat Oct 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure off the coast this evening will continue
to push east further into the Atlantic this weekend with the
approach of a cold front. This cold front then crosses the area
SUnday into Monday, which will bring the next chance of rain. Behind
this front mild high pressure builds in through mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key Messages...

-Quiet weather expected through tonight

-Minor coastal flooding possible along Hatteras Island from
 incoming swell

As of 230 PM Sat...A beautiful fall day outside, as clear skies
remain prevalent across ENC this afternoon. Temperatures have
gotten into the upper 60s to mid 70s across ENC as winds have
shifted from the NW to the SW this afternoon allowing WAA to
overspread ENC bringing warmer temps to the region today. One
thing of note is that we have recently issued a coastal flood
and high surf advisory for portions of Hatteras Island for this
evenings high tide cycle given latest observations. (See
COASTAL FLOOD section for more information)

High pressure centered along the Eastern Seaboard today will slide
offshore tonight. This will bring light S`rly winds and mostly
clear skies to ENC resulting in yet another night of favorable
radiational cooling conditions. Though SSW winds will allow
dewpoints to rise a bit, followed previous forecast thinking and
kept on the cooler side of guidance with temps overnight. Lows
falling into the low 50s inland and mid/upper 50s along the
coast.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Offshore high pressure continues to push further
out to sea on Sunday while a cold front begins to approach from the
west. This will begin to pinch the pressure gradient across ENC
allowing for S`rly winds to increase especially Sun afternoon
where gusts up to 20-25 mph will be possible. Front wont begin
to track across the area until the overnight hours which will
preclude any precip entering into the Coastal Plain during the
daylight hours from the west. While some Hi-Res guidance
continues to hint at some isolated to widely scattered shower
activity tracking in along the coast and OBX from our offshore
waters out ahead of the front, chances remain rather low of this
actually occuring (15% or less) so have left the area precip
free through 00Z Mon. Regardless, increasing cloud cover through
the day and temps getting into the 70s are in the cards for
Sun.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages...

  - Next chance of light rain expected late Sunday night through
Monday morning as a cold front moves through

  - Mild and dry conditions continue through next week

Guidance is in rather good agreement regarding the pattern for
next week. The next chance of rain will come late Sunday night
into early Monday as a quick moving cold front moves across the
Southeast. This front will bring a return of cooler temperatures
with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 Monday/Tuesday. A
reinforcing dry cold front is then forecast to push through ENC
Tuesday night into early Wednesday with high pressure building
in behind the front. This will keep temperatures mild through
the end of the coming work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday morning/...
As of 230 PM Sat...VFR conditions remain noted across ENC this
afternoon and are forecast to continue through the period. As we
get into tonight, forecast calls for clear skies with light to
calm winds resulting in a favorable radiational cooling setup.
While this might typically result in a fog threat, given the
amount of dry air across ENC tonight, fog threat remains rather
low outside of some patchy ground fog at the typical sites
(EWN/PGV). Even if ground fog does develop it would be of no
operational impact to the TAF sites or the rest of ENC. As we
get into Sunday, high clouds begin to build in from the west as
the day goes on out ahead of an approaching front. S`rly winds
will also be on the increase Sun morning with 15-20 kt S`rly
gusts forecast starting around 17/18Z Sun.

LONG TERM /Sunday afternoon through Thursday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...Mostly VFR conditions are likely through
the coming week with high pressure over the region. A cold front
will bring scattered showers late Sunday night and into Monday
morning, with temporary flight restrictions possible. Cooler and
drier weather returns for the rest of the work week as high
pressure builds in once more.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 245 PM Sat...Latest obs show widespread 5-10 kt SW`rly
winds across all waters while 5-8 ft seas with periods around
12-14 sec are noted north of Ocracoke Island as a swell train
from a distant strong low out in the central Atlantic continues
to impact our waters. 2-5 ft seas noted south of Ocracoke
Island. As a result have ongoing SCA`s noted from Duck to
Ocracoke this afternooN. While winds will remain light generally
at 5-10 kts through tonight, expect aforementioned elevated
swell to continue to track S`wards impacting our southern waters
bringing 4-6 ft seas south of Ocracoke tonight. As a result
have SCA in place starting at 7PM along the rest of our coastal
waters. As we continue into Sunday pressure gradient tightens
between high pressure to our east and a cold front to our west
resulting in increasing S`rly breezes through the day Sun with
10-20 kt SW`rly winds with gusts up to 25 kts forecast Sun
afternoon across our coastal waters and 10-15 kt winds with
gusts up to 20 kts across the inland sounds and rivers.With
swell likely not changing much through the period will continue
to see 4-6 ft seas south of Ocracoke and 6-9 ft seas north of
Ocracoke through the rest of the period. This will keep ongoing
SCA`s across all coastal waters through the period.

LONG TERM /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 2 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Another period of hazardous marine conditions are expected
   Sunday through Monday ahead of a quick moving cold front

Winds turn SW Sunday morning and strengthen to 15-25 kts ahead
of a cold front. Winds peak 20-30 kts Sunday night with strong
Small Craft conditions expected across most marine zones.
Ensemble probabilities currently suggest a 30-50% chance of
gusts to Gale Force Sunday night. Potential for Gales will
continue to be monitored. Winds will then turn to the NW Monday
behind the front at 10-20 kts, and then continue out of the
W/SW at 10-20 kts Tuesday.

By Sunday seas increase to 6-10 ft as winds increase ahead of a
cold front, and then subside to 5-8 ft Monday, and 3-5 ft
Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM Sat...Large long period swells may produce minor
  ocean overwash on vulnerable sections of Highway 12 on Hatteras
  Island several hours either side of high tide, which will occur
  around 6 pm.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM Sunday to 9 AM EDT Monday for
     AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Monday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT Monday
     for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...RCF/ZC
MARINE...RCF/ZC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX