933
FXUS62 KMHX 171250
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
750 AM EST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler high pressure builds back in from the northwest today.
A quick moving front then pushes through the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Behind this system, a warming trend will bring
increasing temperatures through late week with the next
potential frontal system impacting the area over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 530AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Below average temps and dry conditions expected today

Only minor tweaks to near term temps on this update as areas
that have decoupled have fallen to about freezing across the
Coastal Plain this morning. Temps should not drop much more from
where they are at right now, however highs today will remain
below avg.

As we get into the day today, expect high pressure to continue
to build over the Mid-Atlantic through the afternoon and evening
bringing mo clear skies and a steady 5-10 mph NW`rly wind with
gusts up to 15-20 mph mainly in the morning to early afternoon
hours. This will promote CAA across the region keeping high
temps below avg, ranging from the upper 50s to low 60s today.
In addition to this, we will remain dry with RH`s generally
ranging from the 20-35% range across the area. While this would
typically promote an increased fire danger risk across the
region, given the lighter winds elected to not hoist one. (See
Fire Weather Section for more details)

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 2 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Cold and dry tonight

High pressure will continue to build over the Mid-Atlantic
tonight, likely becoming centered around the NC/VA vicinity
after sunset. This will promote clear skies,and light winds
allowing for a great setup for radiational cooling across the
region. As a result, have gone with the lower end of guidance
with lows getting into the low to mid 30s inland and low to mid
40s along the immediate coast and OBX. Would not be shocked if
we saw temps near or just below freezing across the Coastal
Plain tonight given the setup but with the frost freeze program
ended across these counties already, no headlines are planned
for tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 2 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

 - Extended period of above normal temperatures appears likely
   from mid-week on

 - Stronger frontal system possible this weekend

Will have a weak upper trough tracking across the Mid-Atalntic
on Tue and Wed with the associated mid level shortwave doing the
same. Upper ridging then builds over the Southeast from Wed
evening on into the end of the week. Forecast uncertainty then
increases over the weekend and into early next week with the
potential for another trough or two to track across the Mid-
Atlantic, though exact evolution of these upper level features
remains highly uncertain for now.

At the surface, high pressure pushes offshore Tue as a low and
its associated cold front then push across the region Tue night
into Wed. This will bring a chance for cloud cover and a few
scattered showers mainly along and north of Hwy 264 where Chc
PoP`s are noted. While SChc PoPs extend as far south as central
Duplin/Jones and Craven Counties. General timing for precip if
it were to occur falls between about 10PM Tue to 10AM Wed. With
winds briefly becoming S`rly Tue night into Wed expect a
warming trend with highs in the upper 50s to 60s Tue and upper
60s to low 70s Wed ahead of the front with lows Tue night
getting into the mid 40s to low 50s. Low and front quickly push
offshore by Wed afternoon allowing skies to clear as high
pressure builds in from the west. This will bring benign
weather and continued avg to above avg temps to ENC through the
end of the week.

As mentioned before, incoming upper trough this weekend could
bring a stronger frontal system through ENC which would bring a
better chance at some precip, though given larger than avg
uncertainty in the forecast, exact details still need to be
hashed out. High pressure is then forecast to build in behind
whatever frontal system impacts ENC. Temps continue to remain
avg to above avg going into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 630 AM Monday...

Key Messages:

- VFR conditions expected through the TAF period

- NW winds gusting to 15-20 knots today

High pressure builds into the region through the TAF period
bringing clear skies. NW winds will gust around 15-20 kt from
mid morning through midday, then diminishing through the
afternoon. Wind quickly become light/calm early this evening as
we decouple.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through Tuesday with high
pressure building across the region. A couple of weak systems
transit the area Tuesday night through Thursday that could bring
isolated showers across rtes with lower cigs, however guidance
keeps VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 AM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Winds quickly ease this morning

 - Elevated seas are forecast to lower this morning

 - Elevated winds and seas potentially return this weekend

Cold front has pushed offshore this morning with widespread
10-20 kt NW`rly winds and wind gusts up around 20-25 kts noted
across all our waters this morning. Seas along the coastal
waters generally remain around 4-6 ft. This has kept SCA`s up
across the Pamlico Sound and Coastal Waters, though with winds
and seas underperforming, could see a much quicker end (4-7AM
timeframe) of the ongoing SCA`s as high pressure builds into the
area. As high pressure builds into the area from the west,
winds ease further through the day to 5-15 kts with gusts up
around 15-20 kts while seas lower down to 2-4 ft by late this
morning. This will end any SCA conditions across our waters with
relatively benign boating conditions forecast from Mon
afternoon on.

Outlook: High pressure moves offshore on Tue shifting winds to a
SW`rly direction. Then as a weak cold front pushes through the
region Tue night into Wed, winds shift to a N-NE direction at
5-15 kts, with 2-4 ft seas and scattered showers possible.
Lighter winds and seas remain in place through Fri morning
before increasing Sat with the approach of a stronger cold
front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1230 AM Monday...

Key Messages:

 - Dry conditions with minimum relative humidity around 20-35%
   this afternoon

 - Wind gusts around 15-20 mph today

High pressure will build into the area today bringing a very dry
airmass. After a night with only moderate RH recoveries around
50-60%, minimum RH values are expected to be around 20-25%
across much of the coastal plain and 25-35% closer to the coast
this afternoon. NW winds are expected to gust around 15-20 mph
with the higher end from mid morning once deeper mixing
commences to mid day, then gradients gradually relax with the
gustiness gradually diminishing through the afternoon. Although
minimum RHs will meet criteria for an Increased Fire Danger
Statement, the winds will remain below the threshold and will
forgo issuing an IFD.

High pressure will become centered over the area tonight and
Tuesday with a dry airmass remaining in place and expect minimum
RH values around 25-35% away from the coast but winds will be
light at mainly less than 10 mph.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...RCF
FIRE WEATHER...MHX