123
FXUS62 KMHX 152328
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
628 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Arctic high pressure crests over ENC tonight. High pressure
shifts offshore by the middle of next week with moderating
conditions expected. Another strong cold front then moves
through Thursday night with high pressure for the end of the
week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 7 PM Mon...

Key Messages:

 - Coldest night of the season so far as lows drop into the
   lower teens tonight under clear skies and calm winds

 - Possible record lows tonight (see climate section below).

Arctic high pres will crest over ENC tonight. The ridge axis
will be centered over srn portions of ENC, and with very dry
airmass in place and calm/light wind, ideal radiational cooling
will be in place. Continued to trend towards the coldest/below
guidance. Coldest areas will be swrn and srn zones near
Croatan/Hoffman/Holly Shelter regions, and nern mainland zones.
Temps drop to the mid teens here, and will be close to cold wx
advisory thresholds once again...and upper teens to mid 20s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 145 PM Mon...

Key Messages:

 - Below normal temperatures continue

High pressure remains centered over the area Tue, and after a
very cold start temps will be gradually warming, though still
about 10-15 deg below normal. Low level thickness values, W-SW
flow and sunny skies support highs in the mid/upper 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 PM Mon...

Tuesday night through Thursday...High pressure continues to
slide offshore as gradual warming trend continues (highs
expected to warm into the 50s Wednesday and into the 60s by
Thursday). Precip chances increase late Thursday (10-30%) and
Thursday night (60-70%) with another cold front approaching and
moving through the region. Left in a 20% thunder prob, but
instability is very slim on latest model suite.

Friday through Monday...Cold front pushes east by week`s end,
with dry conditions returning. Zonal flow ensues behind fropa,
so temps will actually be above climo behind it, with highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 7 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - VFR conditions expected through the period

VFR conditions persist for almost all of ENC, including TAF
sites, and are expected to persist through the period as high
pressure will remain rooted across the Mid-Atlantic.

Outlook: VFR conditions persist through midweek before the next
chance at sub-VFR conditions Thursday into Fri with the
approach of a frontal system.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 145 PM Mon...

Key Messages:

 - Winds and seas grad diminish this afternoon and evening

 - Gale conditions possible for the Gulf Stream waters Thursday
   night to early Friday as next cold front approaches, with SCA
   possible rest of the marine waters.

Latest obs show NW-N winds 10-20 kt gusting 20-25 kt with seas
3-5 ft south of Ocracoke and 4-7 ft north. SCAs continue for the
coastal waters through this afternoon and early evening.
Moderate to light W-SW 5-15 kt returns Tue and Wed. Gusts may
again increase to near/just above SCA criteria across the Gulf
Stream waters Wednesday. Seas will be generally 2-5 ft, with the
potential for some 6-footers across the Gulf Stream Wednesday
afternoon.

Thursday night into Friday...Another round of SCA conditions looks
likely late this week as southwesterly flow strengthens ahead of the
next approaching cold front starting late Thursday and lasting into
Friday. With warm offshore waters, gale conditions possible over the
Gulf Stream with strong southwesterly flow in place ahead of
next cold front. Winds turn nwrly on Friday behind the cold
front and may remain elevated in the 15-25 kt range before
diminishing prior to the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record Low temps for 12/16 (Tuesday)

LOCATION       TEMP/YEAR
New Bern       13/1943  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras  26/2010  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      5/1958  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City  21/1958  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston        19/2004  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville   20/1968  (NCA ASOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/SGK
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD/TL
AVIATION...SGK/ZC
MARINE...CQD
CLIMATE...MHX