619
FXUS62 KMHX 111753
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1253 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing arctic front will push offshore this morning.
High pressure builds into the region through late week. A
frontal system will approach the area late weekend and early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season today. Brisk with temps well
   below normal and breezy WNW winds.

 - Freeze warning remains in effect for most of Mainland ENC.

 - Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries for the
   next few hours, with best chances across the northern tier.

A deep upper low will slide from the eastern Great Lakes to New
England with an Arctic airmass building into the region. A
reinforcing Arctic front will continue to push offshore this
morning as a stout embedded shortwave axis moves through the
upper low and across the region with strong CAA bringing gusty
winds and plummeting temps. Freeze Warnings continue for most
of the area, except Downeast and the Outer Banks where temps are
expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s. Wind chill values
expected to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s inland and
mid to upper 20s along the coast this morning. Radar shows
light returns, likely light snow showers/flurries, moving
through the northern tier early this morning, confirmed by
spotter reports of flurries. Strong forcing associated with the
shortwave will support a brief period of light rain/snow to
light snow showers/flurries for the next few hours, with best
chances across the northern tier. No impacts are expected as
ground temps are too warm for much in the way of accumulation,
though a light dusting on grassy areas may occur where heavier
precip rates develop, with best chance occurring along the Hwy
64 corridor. Arctic high pressure becomes centered across the
Southeast today then pushes southward ahead of another northern
stream shortwave tonight. Low level thicknesses bottom out, with
highs only in the 40s area-wide, about 20 degrees below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

- Freezing temperatures will be possible again inland

High pressure will continue to build in from the south
overnight, while a dry front pushes through. Despite the clear
skies, SW-WSW breeze will limit radiational cooling, but still
expect temps to drop quickly this evening and fall into the low
to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40 deg for the
beaches. If a widespread freeze does not occur this morning,
additional Freeze Warnings may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tue...High pressure remains centered across the SE
US Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures,
but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front
pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry
and don`t expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip,
with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging
sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of
warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding
offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid
60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend and
early next week, with increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty winds (20-25kt) this afternoon and again on Wednesday
 - LLWS impacts expected tonight into early Wednesday AM
 - Crosswind impacts this afternoon for KEWN and KISO

Gusty NW winds of 20-25kt will become westerly by this evening,
then quickly decrease to around 10kt. Light winds overnight are
then expected to give way to another round of gusty winds on
Wednesday, but this time the winds will be out of the SW. Late
tonight into early Wednesday morning, strengthening winds aloft
will overspread the area leading to an increased risk of LLWS
impacts from around 09z-14z. Lastly, the NW winds this afternoon
will lead to crosswind impacts at both KEWN and KISO.

Outlook: The risk of significant aviation impacts appears low
beyond Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 210 AM Tue...

Key Messages

 - Strong W/NW winds will continue through mid day
 - SCA conditions, possible Gales, expected again Wednesday

Latest obs show NW winds 15-25 kt across the inland waters and
20-30 kt gusting to 30-35 kt across the coastal waters and
Pamlico Sound...with seas 5-8 ft (highest south of Hatteras).
Arctic front will continue to push offshore this morning, with
strong CAA developing behind it. W-NW winds will peak at 20-30
kt gusting 25-40 kt. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal
waters and sounds with SCAs for the rivers through mid day. Seas
build as high as 6-9 ft for the waters s of Hatteras. Winds
grad relax a bit tonight, but gradients tighten again early Wed
as a dry front approaches the waters. SCA conditions expected to
return across most waters Wed and Wed night, and could see some
gale force gusts south of Cape Hatteras once again.

Winds and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday 10-20 kt as
high pressure builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the
coast first half of the weekend. Better boating conditions
expected Friday with NW winds 5-15 kt and seas 2-3 ft. Moderate
NNW winds 10-20 kt expected Sat with seas 2-4 ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1245 PM Tuesday...

Elevated fire weather concerns continue through Wednesday due to
dry and breezy conditions.

Despite cool temperatures this afternoon, a very dry airmass
with dewpoints in the teens has allowed relative humidities (RH)
to fall into the low to mid 30s percent. Through the remainder
of the afternoon, RH may bottom out in the upper 20s to low 30s
percent for much of ENC. A mixed airmass should prevent RHs from
showing significant recovery overnight. This will then be
followed up by another day of low RHs on Wednesday. Winds will
become southerly tonight and continue this way into Wednesday,
which should lead to slowly rising dewpoints, and guidance
suggests RHs may only fall to around 30%. This may end up
slightly higher than today. Winds on Wednesday are expected to
be breezy, but not quite as strong as today. In light of all of
this, we will continue with an Increased Fire Danger statement
through this afternoon. Pending any additional collaboration
with the NCFS, the plan is to forego an IFD for Wednesday.
However, the breezy and dry conditions are worth noting.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 210 AM Tue...Potent cold air advection will bring strong
westerly winds to ENC this morning and persisting into the
evening before subsiding. WNW winds will increase to 25-35 mph
across the sounds. This is likely to result in minor water level
rises up to about 1 ft AGL and some soundside flooding from
Duck down to Hatteras Village with a chance for some locally
higher water levels at Roanoke Island. This threat is forecast
to continue for much of today before subsiding this evening as
high pressure gradually builds into ENC allowing for winds and
water levels to lower.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ131-
     136-137.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ135-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for AMZ150-152.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for AMZ154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...CQD
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX