397
FXUS62 KMHX 071820
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
120 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance moves across the area through tonight which
will bring a few showers across ENC. An Arctic front will
approach the region Sunday bringing a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms. A much colder airmass builds into the
region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 -  Isolated to scattered showers will lift across ENC through
    this evening.

A dampening mid level shortwave is approaching the area today
and will move across the area late tonight. Ahead of this
feature, a weak coastal trough combined with WAA is bringing
mostly cloudy skies across ENC today with an area of light
showers lifting into southern sections of the FA. The showers
will continue to lift across the area this afternoon and
evening as the trough lifts north and favorable jet dynamics
briefly resides over the area. Could see an isolated
thunderstorm across the coastal waters, perhaps skirting the
OBX, where weak instability will develop but most inland areas
will have limited instability. Clouds and sly winds will keep
temps mild tonight with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
As of 1 PM Friday...Deep westerly downslope flow and
weak/unfavorable dynamics will keep precip chances minimal with
mostly sunny skies on Saturday. Southerly flow will bring
additional warming with highs climbing into the mid to upper 70s
inland and lower 70s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible Sunday ahead of
   a strong cold front

 - An Arctic front will push across the area Sunday night with
   much colder temperatures early next week. Near or below
   freezing temperatures expected Monday and Tuesday nights

A strong northern stream trough will dig into the central CONUS
this weekend and then move to the East Coast early next week,
bringing the coldest airmass of the season. Moderate southerly
flow will persist Sunday head of the attendant Arctic front with
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. Temps will
remain well above normal Sunday with highs in the mid to upper
70s inland and lower 70s along the coast.

The Arctic front is progged to push across the area Sunday
night with strong CAA and gusty NW winds developing on Monday.
Monday will likely see highs in the mid to upper 50s and highs
around 50 Tuesday, which is more than 15 degrees below normal
for this time of year. Lows on Monday night are expected to drop
below freezing with upper 20s to lower 30s across most inland
areas and mid 30s to around 40 along the coast. The high
pressure axis will slide offshore late Tuesday with SW return
flow developing, which may keep temps from dropping quite as
cool Tuesday night, but with light winds and clear skies, areas
that decouple could drop below freezing once again.

High pressure remains centered across the Southeast Wednesday
with southerly flow bringing warming temperatures, but still
5-10 degrees below normal with highs in the lower 60s. A mid
level shortwave pushes across the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday night
with an attendant sfc trough/front pushing through the area,
however the airmass remains very dry and don`t expect much in
the way of clouds, let alone precip, with this system. Deep
westerly downslope flow will actually bring a few degrees of
warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday with highs in the low
to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Fri...VFR conditions prevail across eastern NC
terminals this morning despite weak wave of low pressure
migrating along a sharpening coastal trough, bringing and
increase in clouds and very spotty shower activity along the
southern coast. These showers may pose a brief but low impact
risk to OAJ for the next few hours before dry weather returns
for the evening.

VFR likely persist overnight. Some CAMs are oddly insistent on a
widespread fog bank to develop after midnight, but this seems
unlikely given presence of steady light south to southwesterly
winds at the surface. It may more likely be an attempt for a sea
fog signal given dropping near-shore SSTs into the low to mid
60s. Regardless, this appears overblown and omitted from TAFs
this cycle.

Dry and largely clear skies for flying on Saturday
under southwest winds under 10 kt.

Outlook: Increasing clouds and moisture expected late this weekend
with an approaching frontal system, with potential for ocnl sub VFR
in showers and iso embedded tstorms. Best chance for any
thunder is on Sunday just ahead of arctic cold front. Much
drier conditions build in for early next week, with VFR
conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - The potential for Small Craft Advisory conditions returns
   late Sunday becoming likely Monday behind a strong cold
   front.

 - A period of Gale Force conditions possible Monday night into
   Tuesday.

High pressure has shifted offshore and winds will continue to
veer to Sly through the afternoon while increasing to 10-15 kt.
A weak shortwave will serve to tighten the gradients further
tonight with winds increasing to 10-20 kt and could see
occasional gusts to 25 kt across the coastal waters. Seas
currently around 2-3 ft will build to 3-5 ft tonight. SW winds
then relax to less than 15 kt on Saturday with seas subsiding
to 2-3 ft by late in the day. A backdoor front may briefly dip
into the northern waters Saturday afternoon allowing winds to
back to N to NEly but will veer back to SE to Sly Saturday
night.

A strong Arctic front will approach the area late in the
weekend and is currently progged to push across the waters late
Sunday night. SW winds increase to around 15-20 kt on Sunday and
could see minimal SCA conditions develop with gusts around 25
kt and seas approaching 6 ft, with best chances near the Gulf
Stream. Winds become NW behind the front with the true Arctic
surge developing late Monday with winds increasing to 20-30 kt
with a potential for Gale Force winds, especially in gusts, and
seas building to 4-7 ft Monday night into Tuesday.

Winds diminish to around 15-25 kt late Tuesday and Tuesday night
while backing to WSW with high pressure centered south of the
area. However, another front will approach on Wednesday with
strong SCA conditions developing.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...MS
MARINE...SK