677
FXUS62 KMHX 102351
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
651 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A reinforcing Arctic front will push across the area tonight.
High pressure builds into the region for the middle to latter
half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 630 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season arrives tonight into Tuesday.

 - Freeze warning remains in effect for most of Mainland ENC.

 - Scattered non-accumulating light snow or flurries possible
   late tonight, with best chances across the northern tier.

A deep upper low will slide from the eastern Great Lakes to New
England through Tuesday with an Arctic airmass building into the
region. A reinforcing Arctic front will push through Mid-
Atlantic tonight as a stout embedded shortwave axis moves
through the upper low and across the region with strong CAA
bringing gusty winds and plummeting temps. Temps expected to
drop below freezing for much of inland ENC, with upper 20s to
lower 30s expected. This may bring record to near-record low
temps for some areas along the coast. Freeze Warnings continue
for most of the area, except Downeast and the Outer Banks where
temps are expected to remain in the mid to upper 30s. Wind chill
values expected to drop into the upper teens to lower 20s
inland and mid to upper 20s along the coast.

Strong forcing associated with the shortwave will support a
brief period of light rain/snow to light snow showers/flurries
after midnight tonight. Will continue 20-30% pops across the
northern counties where forcing will be strongest though could
see occasional flurries into the southern sections as well. No
impacts are expected as ground temps are too warm for much in
the way of accumulation, though a light dusting on grassy areas
may occur where heavier precip rates develop, with best chance
occurring along the Hwy 64 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - The coldest air of the season arrives Tuesday

Arctic high pressure becomes centered across the Southeast
Tuesday then pushes southward ahead of another northern stream
shortwave Tuesday night. Low level thicknesses bottom out on
Tue, with highs only in the 40s area-wide, some 20 degrees below
climo. Winds back to SW Tuesday night and are expected to
remain around 5-10 mph overnight which will limit radiational
cooling preventing temps from cratering. Current forecast
bringing lows in the mid 30s inland and low/mid 40s coast, but
if winds are able to decouple, low temps could be several
degrees cooler than currently forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Monday...High pressure remains centered across the
SE US Wednesday with southerly flow bringing warming
temperatures, but still ~5 degrees below normal with highs in
the lower 60s. A mid level shortwave pushes across the Mid-
Atlantic Wednesday night with an attendant sfc trough/front
pushing through the area, however the airmass remains very dry
and don`t expect much in the way of clouds, let alone precip,
with this system. Deep westerly downslope flow ahead of ridging
sliding across Sern CONUS will actually bring a few degrees of
warming temps on Thursday with highs expected in the mid 60s.
High pressure builds into the area Friday before sliding
offshore first half of the weekend with highs in the low to mid
60s. The next front will approach the area late next weekend
and early next week, with increasing rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 630 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Light SN/flurries possible this evening through tonight
 - Gusty W to NW winds (20-25kt) continue into Wednesday
 - Low chance for MVFR conditions tonight (10-30% chance)

VFR conditions persist across ENC early this evening, with a BKN
to OVC cloud deck at 6-7 kft slowly overspreading the region. A
reinforcing cold front will push through the region tonight,
with west/northwest winds again gusting to 20-25 kts after the
front moves through. These gusts will bring crosswind concerns
to ISO/EWN and will continue through the day tomorrow. While
ceilings are expected to lower for a few hours tonight as the
front pushes through, guidances has backed off on chances for
MVFR ceilings, with chances generally 30% or less. Will continue
to carry a SCT030 deck in the TAFs for this chance for a few
hours tonight, however. -SHSN or very light SN may accompany
this front as well, but the risk of sub-VFR visibilities
continues to appear LOW (less than 30% chance). Have added a
PROB30 group for light snow, but do not expect any
accumulations. Skies then quickly clear around dawn tomorrow,
with VFR conditions and gusty winds persisting through the day.

Outlook: Through the end of the week, the main aviation impact
across ENC looks to be periods of gusty winds. The strongest
wind gusts are expected through Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 PM Monday...

Key Messages

 - Strong W/NW winds will develop late tonight and Tuesday
  morning

 - SCA conditions, possible Gales, expected again Wednesday

An initial cold front pushed across the waters this morning and
current obs show WNW-NW winds 10-20 kt and seas 3-5 ft. An
Arctic front will push across the waters this evening with
strong CAA developing with W-NW winds increasing to 20-30 kt
gusting 25-40 kt. Gale Warnings continue for the coastal waters
and sounds with SCAs for the rivers through mid day Tue. Seas
build as high as 6-9 ft for the waters s of Hatteras.

Winds relax a bit Tue night, but gradients tighten again early
Wed as a dry front approaches the waters. SCA conditions
expected to return across most waters Wed and Wed night, and
could see some gales south of Cape Hatteras once again. Winds
and seas finally begin to lay down by Thursday as high pressure
builds over SECONUS eventually sliding off the coast first half
of the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 400 PM Monday...

Elevated fire concerns Tuesday and Wednesday due to breezy
winds and low relative humidities.

A much drier airmass has arrived in the wake of last night`s cold
front. This dry airmass will remain in place through much of the
upcoming week, and will be accompanied by periods of breezy west to
southwest winds. The greatest overlap of breezy and dry conditions
is expected Tuesday and Wednesday, and this is the period that
stands out the most for potential fire weather concerns. These two
days also come after the expected freeze for many inland locations
tonight, with more rapid curing expected. In coordination with
the NCFS, an Increased Fire Danger statement has been issued for
all of ENC from 10am-6pm Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 4PM Mon...Potent cold air advection will bring strong
westerly winds to ENC starting overnight tonight and persisting
into Tuesday evening before subsiding. The current forecast is
for winds to increase to 25-35 mph across the Albemarle,
Croatan, Roanoke, and Pamlico Sounds tonight with higher gusts
possible along the OBX. This is forecast to result in minor
water level rises up to about 1 ft AGL and some soundside
flooding from Duck down to Hatteras Village with a chance for
some locally higher water levels at Roanoke Island starting late
tonight. This threat is forecast to continue for much of
Tuesday before subsiding Tuesday evening as high pressure
gradually builds into ENC allowing for winds and water levels
to lower.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>092-094-193>195-198-199.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Tuesday
     for AMZ131-136-137.
     Gale Warning from 2 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ135.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to noon EST Tuesday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 2 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 11 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ230-231.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SK/ZC
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...ZC
MARINE...SK
FIRE WEATHER...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX