776
FXUS62 KMHX 030307
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1007 PM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong low pressure system will exit off the Carolina coast
today. High pressure then rebuilds into the area from the north
through midweek before another low pressure system impacts the
region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 10 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Clearing skies overnight with cold temperatures

Low pressure rapidly moving well away from the area and precip
has moved well offshore this afternoon but continue to have low
stratus across much of ENC this evening. Stratus will gradually
dissipate and move offshore overnight as drier air advects into
the region. On track for lows in the lower 30s inland and low to
mid 40s immediate coast. Have cancelled the High Surf Advisory
with seas and breaking wave subiding.

Previous discussion...After a healthy dousing of rain (up to 2"
reported so far for OBX and Crystal Coast), compact but quick
moving area of low pressure is rapidly lifting towards the
Delmarva Peninsula and taking precipitation with it as WAA
weakens and gives way to strengthening CAA overnight.
Precipitation axis is focused roughly along Highway 17 and will
be fully off the coast of the Outer Banks by about 20z, although
it will only add a tenth or two of additional precip. Low-level
moisture will linger for a few hours longer so expecting a
cloudy close to the evening. Once more robust CAA kicks in,
skies will clear overnight as temps fall to around freezing Wed
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages..

 - No hazardous weather expected

High pressure firmly in control tomorrow results in clear skies
inland with subsiding northwesterly winds. Exception will be OBX
where CAA strato-cu will straddle the coastline for most of the
day. As is typical in northerly flow, high temps across
Albemarle Sound and northern Outer banks likely overstated by a
few degrees and knocked forecast temps here to the mid to upper
40s. South of Highway 70, temps will jump into the low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1 AM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - High pressure brings dry conditions and below normal
   temperatures Wednesday and Thursday

 - Another low pressure system is expected to impact the region
   late in the week

High pressure will keep things cool and dry through Thursday
with highs rebounding to the mid 50s.

An unsettled period will start Friday and linger through early
Sunday as another low lifts along the southeast coast and a
series of shortwaves move through aloft. Uncertainty still
remains regarding how close to shore the low will track, but
trends will continue to be monitored. At this time, highest PoPs
are Friday night and into early Saturday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages

 - Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions to continue for several more
   hours

 - Gradually improving aviation conditions overnight

Precip has moved offshore late this afternoon but IFR/LIFR cigs
will continue across rtes through much of the evening before
improving after midnight, although some guidance showing another
area of STCU moving south out of VA bringing an addition period
of IFR/MVFR cigs around 5-8z. Mainly sunny skies expected
Wednesday with the exception of the OBX where STCU will skirt
the coast. High pressure will build in through the day with
winds becoming light and variable.

Outlook: The next weather system is slated to move through ENC
Friday and Saturday with another risk of sub VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 225 PM Tuesday...

Key Messages...

 - Gale warning continues into this afternoon; SCA conditions
   linger into Wednesday morning

After a brief but intense period of gales earlier today (Diamond
Shoals appears to be our windiest spot with a gust up to 44 kt
late morning), winds are beginning to ease and veer out of the
west as low pressure lifts off to the north and east. Seas have
responded in kind, currently 8-10 feet south of Cape Hatteras
and 5-8 feet north.

Gale conditions are now likely confined to the warmer waters of
the Gulf Stream, and a downgrade to SCA is likely by late
afternoon. Expecting a relatively brief surge of northwesterly
winds later tonight as stronger CAA takes hold behind the
departing low, and this will impact all waters except for the
inland rivers. Added the Albemarle Sound to the SCA suite
running through Wed morning.

All headlines forecast to end by Wed midday as broad surface
high establishes itself over much of the eastern CONUS. Winds
tomorrow fall to 5-10 kt out of the northwest with seas 3-5
feet.

Outlook: The current forecast should keep all waters headline
free through the weekend. Very marginal SCA conditions are
possible across area waters late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ135-230-
     231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...MS
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...OJC
AVIATION...RM
MARINE...MS