052
FXUS62 KMHX 041909
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
209 PM EST Thu Dec 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak front crosses the area this evening, stalling offshore to
the south. Another low pressure system will develop and travel
along the boundary, impacting the Carolinas Friday morning into
Saturday. The front will remain stalled off the southern NC
coast behind this system leading to unsettled weather through
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - A brief wintry mix possible across extreme NW sections of
   ENC Friday morning

 - Below normal temperatures to continue into this weekend

A subtle, and dampening, shortwave is forecast to translate
east from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic Coast over the
next 24- 36 hours. Meanwhile, at the surface, a cold front will
slide south through ENC this evening, then stall offshore
tonight. A weak area of low pressure is then forecast to develop
along the stalled front, scooting quickly east to the south of
ENC on Friday. North of the stalled front, a quick-hitting round
of WAA-driven precipitation is expected to overspread the area
late tonight through Friday evening. In addition to the strong
WAA, strong isentropic ascent and modest low-mid level
frontogenesis within a deep layer of moisture should support a
period of moderate precipitation rates on Friday, with liquid
equivalent amounts of 0.50"-1.50" expected. The highest rainfall
totals (1"+) are expected along the coast where the greatest
moisture and strongest low-level forcing will overlap.

Across the far northwestern sections of ENC, temperatures may
cool enough to support a very brief period of wintry
precipitation. Forecast soundings show a deep, but just above
freezing, isothermal layer, with low-level temps near or just
above freezing. At face value, this suggests a cold rain, or
perhaps a brief period of freezing rain, where temps are below
32. However, if the isothermal layer ends up slightly cooler
than forecast, the precip type would tend to favor snow, even
where temps are just above 32. For now, the forecast will
reflect a rain/snow mix across extreme western Pitt and Martin
Counties from 4am-9am Friday morning. Given the marginal thermal
profiles with this event, no winter-related impacts are
expected. Even in the scenario where temps aloft are slightly
cooler, the residence time of temps near freezing appears to
only support a max of a dusting to half an inch of snow
accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Temperatures will be well below normal on Friday thanks to
widespread clouds, precip, and northeasterly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

A frontal boundary is forecast to remain stalled just south of
ENC on Saturday. Given the close proximity, and various upper
level waves moving through the region, there`s the potential for
areas of very light precipitation at times, especially across
the southern half of ENC. Guidance differs on how much dry air
can work in behind Friday`s system, which leads to lower
confidence in where/if light precip will occur on Saturday.
Where precipitation occurs, temperatures should remain warm
enough for all liquid, but we`ll closely monitor this in case
drier low-level air can work in, leading to lower wet-bulb temps
and perhaps a conditional risk of some light wintry precip.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 0230 Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Unsettled pattern through at least Monday
 - Drier midweek

The forecast becomes more unsettled as a series of lows will
move along a stalled boundary offshore and several shortwaves
move through aloft. These lows will keep rain chances in the
forecast into early next week. More uniform temps across the FA
SAT as the offshore low pulls high pressure over ENC from NW to
SE; MaxTs upper 40s inland, low 50s along the coast. Slight
chance/low end chance PoPs will stick around on Sunday (highest
along the coast) with highs in the low to mid 50s.

The start of next week looks to remain unsettled along the
eastern half of the CWA with lingering PoPs with passage of cold
front expected Monday. Dry conditions across the board return
Tuesday as high pressure builds back in at the SFC behind
Monday`s front and troughing aloft that plagues ECONUS this
weekend pushes offshore. Highs will be in the mid 40s to low 50s
MON/TUE with widespread sub- freezing MinTs away from the
immediate each night, coldest MON night/TUE am.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1 PM Thu...

Key Messages

- Increasing chances for rain and sub-VFR conditions late
  tonight into Fri morning

VFR conditions continue to prevail across ENC this afternoon as
high clouds with bases well above 10 kft have begun to
overspread the area out ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary. Clouds continue to gradually increase and will slowly
lower through the remainder of the afternoon and into tonight
as a low and its associated fronts begin to approach from the
south and west. Ceilings likely lower below VFR levels after 06Z
with the current forecast suggesting sometime between 06-12Z.
For now have TAF sites falling to a MVFR cloud deck between
08-10Z and IFR ceilings between 10-13Z across all TAF sites with
everywhere else across ENC following shortly thereafter. In
addition to this, a steady rain is forecast as well which could
reduce visibility some as well across ENC. Rain also starts
early Fri morning and continues through the forecast period.
Once ceilings reach IFR heights they likely remain IFR into Fri
night. Winds remain light generally persisting at 5-10 kts or
less.

Outlook: The next systems will move through ENC Saturday with
another one impacting the area early next week bringing
additional risks of widespread sub-VFR conditions. Periods of
moderate to heavy rain will be possible as well.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 130 PM Thursday...

Key Messages

 - Elevated winds and seas this evening through Friday evening

 - Strong, potentially gale-force, winds possible Monday

A cold front will slide south through the area this evening,
then stall south of the Crystal Coast tonight. A weak area of
low pressure is then forecast to ride along the front on Friday,
moving away from the coast by Friday night. The tightening
pressure gradient north of the low appears supportive of a
period of 20-25kt winds and elevated seas, mainly north of
Ocracoke Inlet. While a bit marginal, the setup still appears
worth keeping a Small Craft Advisory in effect for the central
and northern coastal waters from this evening through Friday
evening. Guidance did trend down with winds, though, and the
forecast reflects a slight adjustment down. Lighter winds are
then expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in.

Seas are forecast to build to 4-7 ft north of Ocracoke Inlet
through tonight. South of there, seas of 3-5ft are expected by
tonight. For all waters, seas should lay down to 2-4ft by late
Saturday.

Outlook: A series of coastal lows will move through this
weekend, bringing solid chances for rain. On the backside of
MON`s low, strong Nerly winds will develop. SCAs likely over all
ENC waters, inside and outside, with Gales possible for all
coastal waters and maybe larger sounds.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 3 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM EST
     Saturday for AMZ152-154.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RM/CEB
AVIATION...RCF
MARINE...RM/CEB