982
FXUS62 KMHX 150558
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1258 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our west with recenter to the south tomorrow,
and then build offshore through Sunday in advance of a dry cold
front. Cooler high pressure builds back in from the northwest
early next week, with another quick moving front moving through
the area by mid next week. Behind this system high pressure
builds in from the north through the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 2 PM Fri...Dry conditions continue this afternoon with
high pressure centered to our west. RHs are down below 30% in
many inland spots, but thankfully winds are very light to nearly
calm, which should limit fire danger. Temps have climbed into
the low 60s, with perhaps another degree or two of warming to
come before temps quickly fall late this afternoon around
sunset. Great radiational cooling conditions are expected this
evening, until winds begin to increase early tomorrow morning
due to the pressure gradient tightening. During the first half
of tonight temps will drop quickly into the 40s, and then may
hold steady the rest of the night as winds begin to increase.
Lows will range from the low 40s over the coastal plain to the
low 50s across the OBX.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
As of 2 PM Fri...High pressure will build over the Gulf Coast
tomorrow while low pressure tracks across southern Canada. This
will increase the gradient locally, with winds increasing to
15-20 mph in the afternoon. Heights will also build allowing for
temperatures to rise into the low to perhaps mid 70s by early
afternoon. Clear skies expected through the morning, but high
clouds will increase through the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 PM Fri...

Sunday...Warming trend continues Sunday with highs expected to
climb into the mid to upper 70s. A dry cold front will pass
through Sunday night, but the only impact to sensible weather
will be breezy winds and cooler overnight lows back into the
low to mid 40s.

Monday-Friday...High pressure returns early next week with
troughing aloft, and temps returning to near climo. The next
front will impact the area Tuesday night, bringing only slight
rain chances to the area. Below normal temps return for Wed and
Thu with post frontal N-NE flow. A stronger frontal system may
impact the area late week into early next weekend, though still
some timing differences this far out in time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1245 AM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

 - LLWS early this morning and again tonight.

Sfc high pressure slides south of the area through today with a
dry cold front approaching the area tonight. Expect VFR
conditions to prevail with periods of mid and high clouds
across rtes at times, mainly above 8k ft. A mid level shortwave
pushing across the Mid-Atlantic early this morning will bring a
strengthening low level jet and LLWS will be possible between
08-13z this morning. A stronger mid-level shortwave and
attendant cold front approach the area tonight with a stronger
low level jet developing during the evening and persisting
through the rest of the overnight.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected to continue through Wednesday.
A dry cold front will push across rtes Sunday with high
pressure building in Monday into Tuesday. Another cold front
with limited moisture is progged to approach the area Tuesday
night and cross rtes on Wednesday. Cigs with both systems
expected to remain AOA 4k ft.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 2 PM Fri...

Key Messages

- Multiple events with hazardous marine conditions expected this
  weekend

 1.) Small Craft conditions expected to develop across the
coastal waters early Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon/evening as SW winds increase to 20-25 kts with gusts
to 30 kts

 2.) Gale conditions develop across the central and southern
coastal waters Saturday night through most of Sunday with strong
Small Craft conditions developing elsewhere

Light winds will continue this afternoon and early tonight with
high pressure to the west. By early tomorrow morning W/WSW winds
will increase quickly from north to south as the pressure
gradient tightens. Winds will increase to 20-25 kts with gusts
to 30 kts over the coastal waters, with slightly weaker winds
over the sounds and inland rivers. By tomorrow evening, winds
will briefly relax north of Cape Hatteras to 10-15 kts, while
strong winds of 20-30 kts remain to the south. Winds will then
increase rapidly again early tomorrow night, this time from
south to north becoming SSW 25-30 kts with gusts 35-40 kts over
the coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet, and 20-25 with gusts
to 30-35 kts elsewhere. Winds will peak early Sunday morning and
then subside to 15-25 kts Sunday afternoon.

Seas will be 2-4 ft through tonight, and then will increase to
3-5 ft by tomorrow morning. Seas then remain steady through the
day tomorrow before increasing to 6-9 ft tomorrow night, and
remaining at this strength through Sunday morning. Seas begin to
subside Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: Small craft conditions will linger into Monday as a dry
cold front moves through the region as winds become NW 20-30
kts late Sunday night. Conditions improve Monday with winds NW
10-15 kts. SW winds return late Tuesday before another dry cold
front moves through the waters Wednesday. Marginal Small Craft
conditions are possible both ahead of and behind this front.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Monday
     for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EST Monday
     for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ152-154.
     Gale Warning from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 8 PM EST
     this evening for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...SGK
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SGK