105
FXUS62 KMHX 240102
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
802 PM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front crosses through ENC tonight with high pressure
building through Christmas day. A warm front moves through late
Friday with next chance for rain. An arctic cold front moves
through late Sunday with a return to cold by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1845 Tuesday...Minor adjustments to sensible wx grids to
account for the sunset temp crash but no impacts to MinT.

Previous disco...as of 3 PM Tue...Cold front still set to move
through, as winds are swrly acrs ENC with clearing skies from nw
to se. Behind the weak cold front CAA will be meager, and
expect lows to remain in the mid to upper 40s as the boundary
layer remains mixed and TD`s relatively high. Could see some
patchy to areas of fog develop, esp if winds become calm. Best
chc would be acrs nrn tier where a bit of rain fell earlier
today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...High pressure will continue to build in from
the southwest and northwest Christmas Eve. This will keep
nnwrly flow at the surface while low level thicknesses remain
above normal. It will actually be a warmer day than Tue due to
downsloping flow and sunny skies, with highs overachieving into
the 70 degree range for most of ENC. Cooler 60s along the OBX
with adjacent cold water.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tue...

Key Messages...

- Mostly dry conditions expected into this weekend with only
  some minor chances for light rain

- Above normal conditions continue through this weekend, with
  highs in the 65-72 range each day (except Friday which will be
  cooler in the 50s to low 60s)

- A pattern changing arctic cold front will move through the
  area Sunday or early Monday and bring a return to below normal
  temps early next week

Christmas Day...A strong ridge of high pressure will develop
across the Gulf States pumping warm swrly winds into ENC. This
will give us warm temps in the 60s (beaches) to low 70s
(interior).

Friday through Sunday...Brief cool day Fri behind backdoor cold
front with highs near climo in the mid 50s to low 60s. Warm
front then pushes north Friday night with perhaps best chance
for overrunning light rain, with 20-60% pops, highest nern zones
and lowest swrn zones. Temps warm up behind front with swrly
flow ensuing and highs in the 60s beaches to low 70s inland this
weekend.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Next cold front sweeps through
late Sunday with next chc of rain, but only small chances as GOM
will be cut off with most of the energy and moisture being
absorbed by the Appalachians. Much colder air mass builds in
behind arctic front with highs in the 30s-40s and lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1845 Tuesday...

Drier air aloft has moved in leading to SKC. While drying will
occur aloft, the near-surface layer is expected to remain fairly
moist through tonight, and with light winds, this may allow a
risk of BR/FG to develop. For all TAF sites, probabilistic
guidance only shows a 10-20% chance of sub VFR VIS developing.
However, this risk is probably a bit higher for areas where rain
fell earlier today. For the TAF sites, this would only include
PGV. At time of writing, PGV has decoupled, but this is only
expected to be temporary with FROPA expected after midnight
tonight. This is something we`ll continue to monitor in later
TAF updates, but for now the risk appears too low to mention in
TAFs. Drier low- level air then filters in on Wednesday behind
the front. That boundary will lead to a northerly wind shift,
along with a bump up in winds in the afternoon.

For the next few hours, a moderate southwesterly low- level jet
will continue to support a risk of LLWS impacts for OAJ/EWN, but
this threat is waning and pushing offshore.

Outlook: Generally quiet through the end of the week with VFR
conditions expected for much of ENC.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1930 Tuesday...
Gale gusts have dropped off over GStream waters. Have been
replaced with SCAs.

Key Messages...

- Gale warning was able to be cancelled early

- Small Craft conditions will be seen over the coastal waters

- On Wednesday, a surge of northerly winds will bring SCA for
  Croatan/Roanoke/Pamlico sounds and keep high seas in place for
  the coastal waters.

- On and off Small Craft conditions expected for the Gulf Stream
  waters the weekend with general swrly flow.

Tonight...Strong marine inversion keeping winds in the 5-10 kt g
15 kt range for Pamlico Sound and remaining sounds/rivers. Just
offshore however, Diamond Shoals gusting to gale force due to
warm waters providing good mixing. Should remain sub SCA
through this evening for the sounds.

Wednesday...There will be a brief period of sub SCA conditions
over central and Sern coastal waters behind the front, but not
long enough of a lull to warrant a separate SCA for the
afternoon Northerly surge which will bring back low end SCA wind
gusts. Have just extended the SCA from tonight through the Nerly
surge. Pamlico/Croatan/Roanoke sounds have had an SCA added for
Wed afternoon as well. The SCA will linger longer over the
coastal waters with high seas 6+ ft hanging on through Wed
evening.

Thursday...Return swrly flow brings another bout of SCA for the
Gulf waters south of Oregon Inlet. Backdoor front brings nerly
surge of SCA or near SCA for all sounds and coastal waters.

Friday through Sunday...Winds and seas relax below SCA on Fri.
Light winds through Sat with good boating conditions. Next Front
moves through late Sun with SCA conditions developing Sun night.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon to 6 PM EST Wednesday for
     AMZ135-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Thursday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...TL/CEB