963
FXUS62 KMHX 152244
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
544 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to our south will build offshore through Sunday
in advance of a dry cold front. Cooler high pressure builds back
in from the northwest early this week, with another quick
moving front pushing through the area by mid-week. Behind this
system, high pressure builds in from the north through the end
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 545 PM Saturday...Winds will pick up tonight as a
shortwave trough moves across the area ahead of deeper trough
digging across the upper midwest, which will further pinch the
gradient over ENC. Later tonight, SW winds will gust to 20-30
mph inland and 30-35 mph along the Outer Banks. Keeping things
well mixed overnight will keep lows more mild, dropping to the
upper 50s area wide.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 1 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Dry cold front passing tomorrow afternoon

 - Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Martin, Pitt, and Greene
   counties Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon (see Fire
   Weather section)

A dry cold front will approach ENC tomorrow, but gusty SW flow ahead
of the front will help send high temps to the mid 70s inland
and upper 60s along the Outer Banks. The front will cross in the
afternoon, veering gusty winds from SW to NW and leaving a
cooler and notably drier airmass in its wake. Fire weather will
be a concern tomorrow, especially across our inland tier of
counties, where winds will gust to 25-35 mph and dews will drop
off quickly behind the front, decreasing RHs to 20-25% (see Fire
Weather section for more details).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1 PM Saturday...

Key Messages:

 - Moisture starved cold front Tuesday night

 - Pleasant temperatures through the week

 - Stronger frontal system possible late week/early next weekend

Great radiational cooling will take place tomorrow night. Overnight
dews in the mid 20s with light winds and clear skies will leave the
door open for lows to tank farther than currently forecast (upper
30s coastal plain, mid 40s Outer Banks). As the forecast stands,
overnight lows are expected to be at least 15-20 degrees colder
than tonight.

High pressure will build in behind Sunday`s FROPA, keeping the
weather dry through the start of the week with highs rebounding to
the upper 50s on Monday and low to mid 60s on Tuesday. Another cold
front will cross ENC Tuesday night, but this one also looks fairly
moisture starved with only slight chance PoPs in the forecast for
northern zones. High pressure will build back in on Wednesday with
temperatures reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s through the rest of
the period. We`ll round out the week and start the weekend with a
stronger frontal system that will bring a better chance of rain to
the area (20-25%).

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 545 PM Saturday...

Key Messages

 - Gusty winds and LLWS to impact the area this evening through
   Sunday

 - Crosswind impacts expected at KEWN and KISO Sunday
   afternoon/evening

Southwesterly winds will gradually increase tonight well in
advance of a cold front approaching the region from the NW.
Aloft, a strong southwesterly low-level jet will overspread the
area, setting up an increased risk of LLWS impacts from early
this evening through early Sunday morning. The LLWS impacts will
then transition to impacts from gusty winds as daytime mixing
deepens. During this time, wind gusts of 25-30kt appear likely,
especially this afternoon as the cold front moves through with a
period of enhanced mixing. During the enhanced mixing, some
guidance suggests the potential for a brief period of wind gusts
of 30-35kt, especially from KISO to KPGV. It is worth noting
that we could see a quick shift in winds from SW to NW in the
afternoon and evening hours behind the cold front. Post frontal
NW winds in the late afternoon/evening hours tomorrow will
bring crosswind impacts at KEWN runway 4R/22L and KISO runway.

Outlook: A series of cold fronts are forecast to move through
ENC over the next 3-5 days, each with a risk of gusty winds and
LLWS impacts. These fronts generally look dry (only a 10-20%
chance of SHRA), but could be accompanied by lower clouds. Late
in the week, one of the fronts may have a slightly higher chance
of SHRA (20-30%).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1 PM Saturday..

Key Messages

 - Deteriorating marine conditions through tomorrow morning

 - Gale Warnings in effect for the coastal waters south of Oregon
   Inlet

 - Small Craft Advisories in effect for all other waters

15-20 kt SW winds will increase to 25-30 kt late tonight/early
Sunday with gusts to 35-40 kt south of Oregon Inlet and 25-30 kt to
the north. Seas will build to 6-10 ft south of Cape Hatteras, 5-9 ft
north of Cape Hatteras, and 4-7 ft across the northern waters. As a
cold front passes tomorrow afternoon, the winds will veer from SW to
NW and briefly decrease to 15-25 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt. A surge
of NW winds will occur Sunday night, ramping winds back up to 20-25
kt with gusts to 30-35 kt. Conditions will improve on Monday
with NW winds decreasing to 10-15 kt and seas subsiding to 3-5
ft by the evening.

Outlook: Winds will be back to the SW late Tuesday before veering to
the NW late Wednesday, and NE on Thursday. A stronger frontal system
is expected late weekend/early weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 100 PM Saturday...

Fire Weather Watch now in effect for portions of ENC for Sunday
afternoon.

Breezy southwest winds Sunday morning are expected to flip to
west, then northwest, during the afternoon and early evening
hours as a cold front moves through. Despite higher relative
humidities (RH) in the morning, deepening mixing and an
increasingly downsloped flow along and behind the cold front
appear supportive of several hours of increased fire concerns
for portions of Eastern NC. Just behind the cold front,
especially, RHs are forecast to drop to 20-25%, with deep mixing
supporting sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts as high as
25-35 mph. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the areas
with the longest duration of breezy winds and low RH. It should
be noted that this watch not only accounts for wind and RH, but
also for the wind shift with the cold front and ongoing moderate
to severe drought conditions. Surrounding the watch area, an
Increased Fire Danger Statement may be necessary pending future
collaboration with the NCFS.

Additional fire weather concerns are possible next week with
the passage of a couple of mostly dry cold fronts.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
     afternoon for NCZ029-044-079.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for AMZ131-230-231.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday for AMZ136-
     137.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Monday for AMZ150.
     Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday for
     AMZ152-154-156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...ZC
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...OJC
FIRE WEATHER...MHX