564
FXUS62 KMHX 032351
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
751 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Minor coastal impacts continue for portions of eastern North
Carolina through tonight. High pressure will continue building
in from the north through Saturday and then push offshore early
next week allowing for return flow to finally set up once
again. This will continue to bring seasonable temperatures and
generally dry conditions to ENC into next week. Cold front
approaches for the middle of next week increasing chances at
unsettled weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

-Last of the more significant coastal flooding impacts end
 tonight with just minor water level rises expected afterwards
 (see coastal flooding section)

-Benign weather resumes with a low chance for patchy fog

Over the next 12-18 hours or so, split flow aloft is forecast, with
weak upper ridging extending into NC from the south and an upper
level trough diving in from the north. While at the surface high
pressure ridging continues to slide in from the north. This has
allowed for winds to ease through the day today. Most obs show 5-10
mph NE`rly winds inland and 10-15 mph winds along the immediate
coast and OBX with gusts up near 20 mph at times. Did see a few iso
showers along the coast and OBX through the day today in association
with a coastal trough but shower activity should end later tonight
as the aforementioned trough pushes inland and weakens. Temps
this afternoon had gotten into the mid to upper 70s and with
dewpoints in the mid 50s to mid 60s RH`s this afternoon have
dropped into the upper 40s to mid 50s resulting in a cool but
overall pleasant fall day today.

As we get into tonight high pressure continues to slide into ENC
weakening the gradient further allowing winds to become light
(Generally 10 mph or less), potentially decoupling in spots,
especially along our inland zones as this will be closest to
the center of the high. Given this, there is a low end threat
for patchy fog/low stratus and have since added patchy fog to
the forecast for our NW`rn zones which will be closest to the
center of the high pressure system. As of right now giving a
20-40% chance for fog given latest Hi-Res guidance so fog
threat is certainly not a slam dunk. Any leftover precip along
the coast should end quickly tonight as aforementioned coastal
trough dissipates. Elected to go on the lower end of guidance
given potential for decoupling with lows in the low to mid 50s
inland and 60s along the coast

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 230 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Benign weather forecast

Not much to say outside of it being a nice fall day outside.
Will likely have some continued minor coastal flood impacts
across areas with a coastal flood advisory, though water level
rises should remain around 1 to potentially 2 ft max with
greatest impacts across areas with weakened dune structures.
Surface high begins to slide east and offshore keeping NE-E`rly
winds light at about 5-10 mph on Sat. Dry airmass aloft will
preclude any precip chances for Sat with the area under partly
cloudy to clear skies. Temps wont change much from Fri as low
level thicknesses remain about the same generally ranging from
the mid 70s to near 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Sfc high pressure will be centered off the
Mid-Atlantic coast while upper ridging builds across the Eastern
CONUS into early next week. NE winds continue into Saturday,
then veer to Ely as the sfc high migrates off the Mid-Atlantic
coast. Generally dry weather is expected for most area although
a coastal trough offshore may produce a few showers across the
coastal waters. Some guidance continues to show some of these
showers working their way toward the coast. Temps warm to near
normal over the weekend and early next week with highs around
80/lower 80s.

By the middle of next week, the upper ridge breaks down as a strong
northern stream trough digs into the Northern Plains and Midwest
with sfc high pressure migrating farther offshore and a sfc
cold front approaching from the NW bringing increasing chances
of showers across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 7:35 PM Friday...Predominantly VFR conditions are expected
for all TAF sites over the next few hours. As we approach the
early morning hours tomorrow, chances for fog and low stratus
will increase, especially for western terminals (PGV and ISO).
The coastal plain will have less cloud cover and is more likely
to decouple, making them the best candidates for MVFR fog
between 10-12z. Guidance has trended more pessimistic with low
stratus with the latest GLAMP showing a 40-50% chance of LIFR
CIGs for PGV. While at least FEW to SCT low stratus is expected
across the coastal plain, confidence is lower for BKN or OVC
skies to develop. I trended this TAF cycle more pessimistic in
terms of low stratus in order to reflect latest guidance, but
all cloud decks have been kept at FEW to SCT at this time. Obs
will be monitored to see if cloud cover needs to be increased.

All obs should return to VFR by 12/13z, making way for a mix of
diurnal cu and high clouds with light variable winds.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 2 AM Friday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the
long term with high pressure building in from the northeast. NE
to E will be less than 15 kt through the period. Cannot rule out
patchy late night fog over the weekend when winds will be
weaker and low levels decouple overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 250 PM Friday...

Key Messages:

 - Elevated seas will continue across our coastal waters through
   Saturday

Winds have eased compared to the previous few days with the
latest obs showing widespread 10-20 kt winds with a few gusts
along our coastal waters to 25 kts. Seas across the coastal
waters are sitting at about 6-10 ft with the lone exception
being along the immediate Crystal Coast where lower seas are
noted. Will note near the Crystal Coast anywhere 2-5+ miles out
likely has 6+ ft seas ongoing. Either way expect conditions to
remain the same into this evening before high pressure ridge
gradually slides towards our waters weakening the pressure
gradient and allowing NE`rly winds to ease down to 5-15 kts.
WInds remain at these speeds through the remainder of the
period. Seas will also be on the downtrend given the weaker
winds falling to 4-8 ft tonight and then 3-7 ft tomorrow. With
this in mind the ongoing small craft advisories along our
coastal waters will remain in place through the period.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 1 AM Thursday...High pressure migrates offshore over the
weekend with easterly winds around 15 kt or less through Monday,
then veers to SE on Tuesday. Seas around 4-8 ft on Saturday
will slowly subside through the long term. Seas expected to drop
below 6 ft by Saturday north of Oregon Inlet, however 4-7 ft
seas expected to continue across the waters south of Oregon
Inlet through Monday, finally dropping below 6 ft on Tuesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 3 PM Friday...While we continue to trim ongoing coastal
flood warnings and advisories, continued long period swell and a
steady NE`rly wind will bring minor coastal flooding impacts to
portions of the the Outer Banks south of Oregon Inlet and soundside
areas adj to the southern Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay/Pamlico
Rivers into Saturday. Final coastal flood warning has been
dropped but coastal flood advisories remain across Hatteras
Island, Core Banks beaches, Downeast Carteret County and across
the adjacent counties by the Neuse/Bay/Pamlico Rivers.

Oceanside...Lingering powerful long period swell from the
combination of ex-hurricanes Humberto and Imelda will persist
across ENC beaches into Saturday, bringing dangerous rip
currents, large breaking waves, ocean overwash, coastal
flooding, and wave runup impacts. While impacts continue to
wane as waves gradually lower, there still is the threat for 1
to 2 ft AGL of inundation around times of high tide around Core
Banks Beaches and Hatteras Island given weakened dune
structures across the area.

Soundside...NE winds will continue to subside
today but elevated water levels expected to continue into
Saturday with 1-2 ft of inundation possible along the southern
Pamlico Sound, Neuse/Bay and Pamlico/Pungo rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ080-094-
     194-196-205.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ196-
     203>205.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ203-205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/OJC
MARINE...SK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX