254
FXUS62 KMHX 291945
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
245 PM EST Sat Nov 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure slides offshore tonight. A weak warm front will move
north through ENC Sunday morning before a cold front crosses in the
evening. Behind this system high pressure will briefly build in from
the north Monday, with a stronger low pressure system expected to
move across the Carolinas Tuesday. High pressure then rebuilds into
the area from the north through midweek before another low pressure
system impacts the region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Cold conditions expected again tonight with lows below freezing
inland

With high pressure overhead and light N`rly flow noted across ENC
today, temps have struggled to get out of the mid 40s this afternoon
resulting in a rather brisk start to the weekend. Continue to expect
mostly clear skies for the rest of the afternoon outside of the OBX
where some high cirrus has been noted for most of the day.

As we get into tonight, high pressure will gradually push offshore
while a weak warm front/coastal trough begins to track north near
the coast towards daybreak Sunday. As a result, some increasing
cloud cover may approach the area near daybreak Sun with isolated to
widely scattered showers also possible along the OBX. But, any
inland areas will remain dry regardless of shower coverage. In
addition to this, as the high pushes offshore, winds are forecast to
shift to an E-SE direction overnight. This will allow for some
moisture recovery overnight and some WAA. So what does this mean for
the ambient weather for ENC tonight? The first is that we will
likely have a pre-midnight low as temps drop rapidly into the upper
20s to low 30s inland and into the low 40s along the OBX just after
sunset with temps then remaining steady and maybe even rising a few
degrees after midnight and into daybreak Sunday as cloud cover and
WAA increases. The second is the potential for some fog tonight.
Right now guidance isn`t too keen on any fog development
tonight outside of a few more pessimistic models like the RRFS
which shows a bit more low level moisture recovery overnight.
Currently discounting this however given how dry it has been and
the amount of low level moisture needed to even get fog is on
the higher end. With crossover temps too cold as well, leaning
on a fog less night tonight. With all this in mind, while the
threat is likely 10% or less can`t rule out some patchy fog
completely yet, especially east of Hwy 17.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Rapidly moderating conditions Sunday as a warm front lifts through
the area with highs in the mid to upper 60s possible

- Isolated to scattered showers possible Sunday ahead of and along a
cold front which will move through the area Sunday evening

As the warm front lifts north through ENC Sunday morning, southerly
flow begins in earnest behind the front. This is forecast to bring
much warmer temps to the area with highs getting into the 60s on
Sunday. A fair amount of clouds are likely with moisture increasing
as well, but this should only act to limit temps from getting into
the 70s on Sun. Continue to also see the signal for isolated to
widely scattered showers ahead and along an incoming cold front.
Cold front is forecast to sweep E`wards across ENC Sun
evening/night. Have kept SChc to Chc PoP`s in the forecast given
this, though rainfall amounts will likely be very light generally
0.15 inches or less.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 245 PM Sat...

Key Messages

- A strong low pressure system will impact ENC Tuesday into
  Wednesday with the potential for heavy rain, gusty winds, and
  minor coastal flooding

- Below normal conditions continue the rest of next week, with
  the potential for another low pressure system to move through
  the Carolinas late week

An active weather pattern is shaping up early to mid next week.
During this time, upper level troughing is forecast to develop
across the central U.S., with southwesterly flow developing
aloft across the southern U.S. At the SFC, a notably strong area
of low pressure is forecast to develop along the Gulf Coast
Monday, then lift NE through the Southeastern U.S. early next
week.

The majority of guidance continues to depict low pressure
taking a "just" inland track as it moves through the Carolinas
and up into the Mid-Atlantic. Though there remains some
uncertainty with the track and intensity still, most model
solutions show the potential for Gale Force winds and heavy rain.

With this track we will be on the "warm" side of the low, but
just barely. There remains potential for some convective
elements and thunder, but this should be mostly confined to the
immediate coast and over the nearshore marine waters. A plume
of anomalous moisture and strong forcing, appears supportive of
a period of moderate to heavy rain along the track of the low.
Ensemble guidance and other forecast aids continue to show a
notable signal for heavy rain (1-2"+). The rain is much needed
as a large portion of ENC remains in a moderate drought. That
said, some minor nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out for
areas that see higher rainfall totals and/or higher rain rates.

For coastal areas, especially the Outer Banks, we`ll have to
closely monitor the potential for oceanside and soundside
flooding impacts due to the potential for strong winds, large
waves, and a higher tide cycle.

High pressure briefly builds in towards the middle of the week,
but this may be short-lived as yet another coastal low may
impact the area towards the end of next week.

Temperatures fall back down below normal Monday, but bounce
back up on Tuesday. Below normal conditions then likely return
for the rest of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM Saturday...VFR conditions will prevail through
much of tonight, then a low chance for sub-VFR conditions late
tonight into Sunday morning.

Arctic high pressure centered across the region this afternoon
bringing a very dry airmass with dewpoints in the teens inland
and 20s along the coast. The high slides offshore tonight with
low level flow slowly veering to SE Sunday morning and
eventually Sly Sunday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold
front. Fog potential remains very low tonight despite gradual
dewpoint recovery overnight as temps will remain well above
cross-over temps. However, cannot completely rule out shallow
ground fog, mainly across eastern rtes closer to the coast given
near saturated conditions. Could also see stratus moving
onshore late tonight into Sunday morning as low-level flow veers
to SE bringing the potential for a period of MVFR cigs. Probs
remain quite low, generally less than 30% and will keep mentions
to few-sct at coastal TAF sites.

Outlook: Could see a period of sub-VFR conditions with widely
scattered showers ahead of a cold front Sunday evening. High
pressure builds back into the area Monday with pred VFR
conditions expected. Widespread sub-VFR likely Tuesday as a low
pressure system is forecast to lift along the coast. High
pressure builds back into the area Wednesday and Thursday with
pred VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM Sat...

Key Messages...

- Small Craft conditions likely develop late Sunday night behind a
cold front through most of Monday

- Increasing potential for Gale Force winds Tuesday as a strong low
pressure system moves over the Carolinas

- Hazardous boating conditions will likely continue into Wednesday

No big changes today in the forecast as relatively benign
boating conditions are noted across our waters this afternoon
with widespread 10-15 kt N`rly winds with 20 kt gusts and 2-4 ft
seas noted across our waters today. Winds veer tonight to an
east and then southeasterly direction as a weak warm
front/coastal trough lift north across our waters Southerly
winds increase to 10-20 kts Sunday afternoon, and then switch to
the NW late Sunday night behind a cold front. Winds strengthen
to NNW 15-25 kts with gusts to 30 kts overnight into Monday
morning. Isolated to widely scattered showers will be possible
as well along the warm front Sun morning and then again out
ahead and along a cold front approaching from the west Sun
evening/night.

Seas will be mostly 2-3 ft through Sunday evening with seas then
quickly building after midnight Mon from north to south to 4-6 ft.

Outlook: Improving conditions expected after sunrise Monday, but
this will be short lived as a strong low pressure system is expected
to move through the coastal waters Tuesday. There is potential for
Gale Force winds across much of the coastal waters, with the exact
strength of the winds (and wind direction) still to be worked out.
Hazardous marine conditions will continue for some time behind this
system through Wednesday.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM Sat...A strong low pressure system moving through
North Carolina Tuesday will bring elevated winds and seas. This
comes as we enter a king tide cycle Tuesday (12/2) through
Monday (12/9) of next week. Areas with vulnerable dune
structures along the Outer Banks have the potential to see minor
coastal flooding, heightened during Tuesday evening`s and early
Wednesday morning`s high tides. The forecast magnitude and
direction of winds and waves with this system depends on the
eventual track and strength of the low pressure system. And as a
result, specific coastal flooding impacts and their severity
are still unclear at this time.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RCF
SHORT TERM...RCF
LONG TERM...SGK/RCF
AVIATION...SK
MARINE...SGK/RCF
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX