665
FXUS63 KMKX 042012
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
312 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record highs may be reached at MSN and MKE today, with MSN`s
  record set at 87 degrees in 2005 and MKE`s record set at 88
  degrees in 1897.

- Dry and abnormally warm conditions continue through Sunday,
  with gusty southwesterly winds leading to minor fire weather
  concerns.

- Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (40-75%) return late
  Sunday night and continue through Monday night with a slow cold
  frontal passage.

- Small Craft Advisories are in effect from tonight into Sunday
  night for areas north of Port Washington, and from Sunday
  afternoon into Sunday night from Wind Point to Port
  Washington. A Gale Watch is in effect Sunday evening through
  late Sunday night for the northern third of the open waters of
  Lake Michigan.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 313 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Tonight and Sunday:

Temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will continue for the next
couple hours before falling into the upper 70s. Tonight, expect
low temperatures in the low 60s and steady southwesterly winds.
Winds increase again into Sunday, with gusts of 25 to 30 mph
expected by midday. Enhanced mixing and high cloud cover moving in
from the west will prevent temperatures from rising as high as
today, but still expecting highs in the low to mid 80s (well
above average). A more southerly tilt to the winds Sunday
afternoon may allow for Lake Michigan shoreline regions to see
highs only in the upper 70s as onshore flow increases. Dry airmass
will keep heat index values near the temperatures. In addition,
this will continue to provide some concern for fire weather.
However, fuels moisture values remain high enough to limit
impacts.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 313 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Sunday night through Saturday:

Sunday night, expect lower gusts but continued steady south-
southwesterly winds. A cold front will slowly track southeastward
through southern Wisconsin late Sunday night into Monday morning,
bringing showers and possibly a few isolated bolts of lightning
(PoPs 30 to 50 percent). A few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE develop
during the afternoon hours Monday, bringing better chances for
lightning as the frontal feature stalls and its parent low
propagates northward into the Hudson Bay (PoPs 40 to 60 percent).
Weak shortwaves riding along the frontal boundary are expected to
produce additional rain and storms (60 to 80 percent chance)
through the overnight hours Monday before the front finally sinks
southward into northern Illinois Tuesday morning.

Northerly winds and clearing skies Tuesday as high pressure
settles into the region behind the front. High pressure lingers
through Thursday, propagating eastward into the Northeast U.S.
into Friday morning, with the next chances for precipitation along
a weak cold front Thursday night into Friday (~20 percent).
Temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s are expected Tuesday
through Saturday.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 313 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Diurnal cumulus between 5000 and 6000 ft will dissipate around
sunset tonight, with VFR conditions expected to continue
overnight. Southwesterly winds will continue to gust near 20 kt
through the rest of the afternoon, becoming steady and
southwesterly around 9 kt overnight. MSN to SBM northward may see
low level wind shear around 35 kt as gusts diminish but winds
above the inversion increase as low pressure deepens in northern
Minnesota. Wind gusts increase again into Sunday morning, with a
gusts between 25 and 30 kt possible by afternoon. VFR conditions
are expected to continue, with an early afternoon diurnal cumulus
deck around 5000 ft replaced with high level clouds ahead of a
frontal passage overnight.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 313 PM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Broad high pressure lingers along the Mid-Atlantic coast as low
pressure over eastern North Dakota strengthens and lifts
northeastward into Ontario tonight into Sunday. Expect
southwesterly winds to continue throughout tonight, becoming
southerly into Sunday afternoon and strengthening to 25 to 30 kt.
Small Craft Advisories are in effect from tonight into Sunday
night for areas north of Port Washington, and from Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night from Wind Point to Port Washington. Gales
are possible in the northern third of the open waters, with a
Gale Watch in effect Sunday evening through late Sunday night.
Winds will diminish and change to northwesterly as a cold front
pushes north to south across the lake late Sunday night into
Monday. A few thunderstorms are possible with this front. High
pressure then settles in Tuesday and Wednesday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643 until 7 AM Monday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ644-LMZ645...1 PM Sunday to 1 AM
     Monday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ563...5 PM Sunday to 2 AM
     Monday.

&&

$$

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