136
FXUS63 KMKX 051627 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1027 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dusting of snow possible this afternoon and evening. Patchy
  freezing drizzle may mix in during the evening hours.

- An inch or two of snow is possible Saturday night into early
  Sunday.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week, with
  additional rounds of light snow possible at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Winds will remain steady out of the southwest today as a weak
low pressure trough approaches from MN. There is an area of
light snow over southern MN right now. This is associated with
the mid level vorticity advection and low level frontogenesis.
That area will make its way across central WI this afternoon and
evening. While there is a large dry layer between 5 and 10kft
over srn WI right now, there should be just enough forcing with
the trough to saturate the column and allow for light snow and
flurries. So the precip coverage will be rather broad and most
of southern WI (including with WI/IL border) should see at
least some flurries. Accumulations toward central WI will also
be light, with up to a half inch.

As the surface low lifts toward Lake Huron early this evening,
drier air will overspread the mid layers in southern WI behind
the trough. This will dry out the snow growth layer and there
continues to be a risk for some light freezing drizzle over
southern WI during the evening hours. This is due to lingering
low level moisture and very weak frontogenesis to produce a
small amount of lift (about -2 mbar/sec omega) before all the
moisture departs. Amounts, if any, will be light and we are not
anticipating evening travel hazards at this time.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 349 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Today and Tonight:

A shortwave will bring some light precipitation to southern
Wisconsin this afternoon and evening. Latest model soundings
show fairly deep saturation once the better forcing arrives by
late afternoon, with mainly snow likely initially due to plenty
of saturation within the dendrite growth zone. There could be
some drying out within the DGZ as the precip winds down, so left
a mention of freezing drizzle in the forecast for the evening
hours. The best chance for up to 0.5" of snow will be mainly
north of I-94, with decreasing amounts towards the south. Temps
will be somewhat milder today under southwest winds ahead of the
shortwave, though still well below normal highs for early
December.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 349 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure will briefly move through the area on Saturday,
bringing a short round of dry weather. Despite some sunshine,
high temps will be even colder tomorrow behind the departed
shortwave.

Another wave is expected to roll through the area Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing more snow chances to southern Wisconsin.
Still a fair amount of disagreement among model solutions with
the strength and track of the surface low associated with this
wave. Overall, the consensus of the latest models keep the track
of the low and better forcing south, along with the higher
precip totals. Still looks like enough lift and moisture in
southern Wisconsin for an inch or two of snow. Will have to keep
an eye on model trends with the surface low, as a nudge
northward could bring snow totals up a bit.

High pressure will bring dry and well below normal temps to the
area Monday. Additional shortwaves will be possible at times
Monday night through mid-week, with quite a bit of variance
among models at this time as to the the strength and track of
theses systems. Overall though, it looks like below normal
temps and occasionally snowy conditions will persist through
the extended period.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions will persist through mid afternoon until snow
arrives. The light snow that is currently ongoing across all of
southern WI will track into central and srn WI late this
afternoon and exit this evening. Expect visibility down to 2
miles at times, especially north of I-94. Ceilings will come
down to around 1500 ft during the snow, and then areas may drop
to IFR as the snow tapers off during the evening.

Amounts up to a half inch are possible toward central WI, with
trace amounts near the IL border. A brief period of light
freezing drizzle is possible on the tail end of the precip later
this evening as we lose ice crystal aloft as drier air works
in. Expect MVFR during the overnight hours with areas of
clearing toward east central WI toward morning.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1026 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Gusty southwest winds will continue today between a low pressure
trough approaching from the northwest and high pressure over
the northeast United States. The remainder of the gusts are
expected to remain below 35 kt today, so the Gale Warning was
allowed to expire for the open lake.

Breezy westerly winds tonight will gradually ease while veering
to the northwest on Saturday, as high pressure builds in from
the west. Breezy northerly winds are then expected Sunday as low
pressure passes by to the south and strong high pressure begins
to build in from the west. More rounds of gusty winds are
expected at times the first half of next week, as multiple low
pressure systems move through the region. A few gale force gusts
will be possible.

MRC

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     midnight Saturday.

&&

$$

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