263
FXUS63 KMKX 061620
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1020 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread accumulating snowfall this evening into early
  Sunday. Snow totals generally of 1 to 4 inches north of I-94
  and 3 to 6 inches south. A Winter Weather Advisory is in
  effect for portions of southern Wisconsin from Sauk County to
  Milwaukee County and southward.

- Below normal temperatures will persist much of next week.
  Additional rounds of light snow at times next week, possibly
  mixed with rain later Tue into early Wed.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1021 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A sharp edge to the cloud bank is noted on satellite as a weak
arctic front pushes through the remainder of southern Wisconsin.
Clouds will accordingly exit briefly this morning into early
this afternoon before additional cloud cover moves in from the
west ahead of the clipper system to impact the area tonight.
Current trends with 12Z mesoscale models indicate a slight
southward shift to the highest snowfall potential, but still
modeling agrees on at least 3 inches of snow across the Advisory
area (Sauk County to Milwaukee County southward), so no
adjustments have been made. The locally higher amounts would be
due to banding precipitation in the southwest and lake
enhancement in the far southeast (Racine and Kenosha Counties
primarily). Will make adjustments if needed as the system shows
its hand through today.

MH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 324 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Today through Sunday:

Clouds will likely decrease in coverage this morning as high
pressure briefly moves through the area. Colder temps are
expected today behind the shortwave that moved through last
evening, with well below normal highs in the low to mid 20s.

Clouds will then quickly return to the area later today into
this evening as a shortwave approaches from the west. This
system will bring widespread accumulating snowfall to southern
Wisconsin during the evening and overnight hours, winding down
west to east early Sun morning. While there remains some
differences among model solutions as to the amplitude of the
shortwave and strength/placement of the surface low, the overall
trend has been towards a farther north and snowier solution for
southern Wisconsin.

The bulk of large scale models and mesoscale models show ample
forcing via warm air advection and frontogenesis, especially
across the southern forecast area. The deterministic GFS
continues to remain on the lower end with precip amounts but is
notably lower than the GEFS ensemble mean. While the dendrite
growth zone isn`t very deep per latest model soundings, the DGZ
is expected to be in the heart of the better forcing. Between
this and the colder nature of the system, expecting snow to
liquid ratios of 14-17 to 1. With the precip totals trending
upward, these ratios give forecast snow totals of generally of
1"-4" north of I-94 and 3" to 6" south.

Not out of the question to see some lake enhancement come
onshore later tonight into early Sunday, particularly from
Milwaukee southward. Still some uncertainty with the mean flow
from the surface to 850 mb though, so confidence isn`t high in
lake enhancement. Still opted to put a slight bump up in totals
in the far southeast to reflect this potential.

Given the higher expected snowfall totals and increased overall
confidence in this snow event, a Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for roughly the southern half of the forecast area.
Could see the need for the advisory to be expanded northward a
bit if this northward model trend continues.

Clouds will decrease Sunday morning into early afternoon behind
the departing low pressure system. Despite the sunshine, highs
will be chilly, only topping out in the upper teens to low 20s
most places. Breezy northerly winds will keep wind chills in the
single digits above zero through the day. Could see little lake
effect snow in the far southeast forecast area Sunday night as
winds veer from northerly to easterly. Not expecting much more
than a dusting given that the wind direction will be changing
through this period, limiting a prolonged fetch from any
particular direction.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 324 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Monday through Friday:

High pressure will bring dry and continued well below normal
temps to the area Monday. A quick moving shortwave may bring a
dusting of snow to southern Wisconsin Monday night as the high
pushes eastward. Another low pressure system is expected to
move through the area later Tuesday into early Wednesday. Models
continue to suggest a more northern track with this system,
which could lead to a little rain/snow mix, particularly in the
southern forecast area. A colder airmass is then expected to
quickly return to the area behind the low Wednesday night into
Thursday, with more snow chances returning on Thursday, possibly
lingering into Friday.

DDV

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1021 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Ceilings between 1500 and 2500 ft are slowly moving southward as
a weak front pushes clear skies into much of southern Wisconsin
this morning into this afternoon. Additional cloud cover moves
in late this afternoon into tonight as a clipper system pushes
eastward. As ceilings lower tonight, expect snowfall to also
develop, lowering visibilites as well. IFR conditions are
expected overnight into Sunday morning before slowly improving
from west to east as high pressure moves in.

Light northerly to northwesterly winds this morning, becoming
northeasterly into this evening and turning northerly and
becoming gusty into early Sunday morning. Gusts of 15-20 kt are
expected Sunday morning, diminishing into Sunday afternoon.

MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 324 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Breezy westerly winds this morning will gradually ease while
veering to the northwest today, as high pressure of 30.0 inches
builds in from the west. Breezy northerly winds are then
expected later tonight into Sunday as low pressure passes by to
the south and strong high pressure of 30.5 inches begins to
build in from the west. More rounds of gusty winds are expected
at times through at least the first half of next week, as
multiple low pressure systems move through the region.

DDV

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ056-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ067-WIZ068-
     WIZ069...8 PM Saturday to 6 AM Sunday.

     Winter Weather Advisory...WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ066-WIZ070-WIZ071-
     WIZ072...10 PM Saturday to 8 AM Sunday.

LM...None.
&&

$$

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