766
FXUS63 KMKX 020352
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
952 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow through this evening with accumulations between 0.5
  and 1.5 inches.

- Another light snow event early Wednesday morning with amounts
  of an inch or less.

- Much colder Wednesday night through Thursday night.

- Several chances for light snow late in the week, though with
  low confidence on details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 950 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

The accumulating light snow is slowly coming to an end from the
northwest to the southeast late this evening. The snow will end
as the PVA from a mid and upper level shortwave pulls away from
the state to the northeast. The 500 mb shortwave is lagging
behind the 700mb shortwave just a bit so flurries may linger
into the early morning hours but not expecting much additional
accumulations with this activity. Bridges, overpasses and other
elevated surfaces will be the most susceptible for any slick
spots, but as always use caution when the roads are wet and snow
covered.

Patterson

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight:

Snow is spreading into southern Wisconsin this afternoon. This
is due to a mid level shortwave trough making its way across the
region. Once the low levels saturate, visibilities are dropping
down to 1 to 2 miles. This saturation is filling in from west to
east. Despite the healthy layer (up to 5000 ft) of clouds within
the dendritic growth zone, the overall lift (omega) is weak.
Therefore, still expecting snowfall totals just shy of an inch
north of I-94 from Madison to Milwaukee and US-14 west of
Madison, to up to 1.5 to 2 inches near the WI/IL border.

We are seeing an elongated area, or axis, where snow is
beginning earlier than surrounding areas, primarily from Dubuque
to Madison and Oshkosh, and now over to Sheboygan. There is
weak frontogenesis ongoing at the 600mb level and also warm air
advection at 700mb. This led to mid clouds producing snow aloft
to help saturate the lower levels quicker than surrounding
areas. The deeper moisture is translating into southeast WI now,
and it is beginning to snow in Milwaukee.

The steadier snow is expected to exit southeast WI from west to
east from 9 pm to 1 am. However, upstream obs in the Twin Cities
area are showing light snow coincident with the lagging edge of
the mid level shortwave trough. This feature should exit eastern
WI between midnight and 3 am. We will keep an eye on trends this
evening and potentially extend the light snow/flurry chances
into the overnight hours. This would not affect the overall
snowfall totals. Winds will be light throughout this snowfall
event. Lows will be in the lower teens tonight, although single
digits will be possible northwest of Madison if any clearing
occurs.

Tuesday through Wednesday:

The surface high pressure ridge will be passing by to our south
on Tuesday. With a weak low pressure trough crossing the
northern Plains, expect steady southerly winds across southern
WI. We should manage to see breaks in the clouds at times. Highs
are expected to top out in the lower to mid 20s, similar to
today.

Tuesday night, clouds and moisture will return to southern WI
ahead of a strengthening surface trough and a weak shortwave
trough. Look for increasing southerly winds overnight. Lows will
be in the mid to upper teens, but those lows will occur in the
evening and then gradually rise toward morning.

Light snow along the surface trough will likely begin in
central WI prior to daybreak Wednesday and then slide across the
rest of srn WI through midday. This is looking like a half to
one inch light snow event with this clipper. High temperatures
will occur while it is snowing, in the lower 30s.

Gusty northwest winds will develop behind the cold front
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Arctic air will bring low
temperatures down to the single digits below zero for all of
southern WI except the lakeshore counties. While this is much
colder than normal for early December, the lows are not quite in
record territory. Wind chill values early Thu morning will be in
the 17 to 20 below range which is approaching Wind Chill
Advisory levels.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Thursday through Monday:

High pressure and the arctic air should allow for sunshine on
Thursday and highs around 10 to 15. The next clipper system
should arrive Friday afternoon but this looks like it could just
be flurries.

A weak warm air advection precip feature with a shortwave will
slide across the Midwest on Saturday afternoon or night. This
snow may clip southern WI.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 950 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Largely MVFR to IFR conditions tonight become VFR to MVFR
Tuesday. Conditions tonight are largely due to the lower
visibilities associated with the light snow. Visibilities range
from 1-4 SM for under the snow showers. Flurries may linger into
the early morning hours, but once the accumulating snowfall has
ended visibilities will climb back to 7 to 10 SM. Ceilings
range from 1.5 to 3.5 kft this evening and will remain around
that level through the overnight hours. Ceilings will slowly
rise Tuesday after sunrise and a few locations along the lake
shore could see ceilings become scattered for a couple hours.
Visibilities and ceilings will fall again Tuesday night into
Wednesday as snow returns to the state.

Light southwest winds will become variable to westerly
overnight. Tuesday morning southwest winds return and increase
slightly. Southwest winds remain through the period.

Patterson

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 353 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Steady southerly winds will become west to southwest late tonight
and Tuesday as an area of high pressure moves through the Ohio
Valley.

A strong cold front along a low pressure trough will cross Lake
Michigan Wednesday. Gusty southwest winds are expected ahead of
this front early Wednesday morning, with gusty northwest winds
behind it Wednesday afternoon and night. Winds are expected to
remain just below gale force, although a few gale force gusts
look possible. Very cold air with this system will result in a
risk for freezing spray Wednesday night and Thursday.

Light winds are expected Thursday with the influence of high
pressure over Illinois and Indiana. Another period of elevated
southwest winds will occur Thursday night into Friday as another
low pressure trough crosses the Upper Great Lakes.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

$$

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