896
FXUS63 KMKX 292056
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
256 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow, heavy at times, will persist through tonight. The
  heaviest rates and travel impacts are expected through this
  evening, possibly hanging on into tonight in the east. A
  Winter Storm Warning is in effect.

- Blowing and drifting snow is a concern on Sunday as winds
  pick up behind the departing system.

- Below normal temperatures and a few chances for additional
  snow expected through the coming week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

This afternoon through Sunday:

The ongoing winter storm continues to look largely on track
compared to the forecast over the last day or two. Overall,
still expecting widespread storm totals of 8 to 12 inches, with
some locally higher amounts possible along and east of the
Kettle Moraine.

The most notable difference from earlier expectations with this
storm so far was the lower snow to liquid ratios this morning.
The overall average was around 10 to 1, with a sandier compact
snowfall across southern Wisconsin. Looking at models soundings
through the morning, it appears that the best lift was largely
not lined up with the dendrite growth zone, likely contributing
to the lack of dendrites and smaller flakes/ice crystals.
Expecting more lift in the DGZ in soundings for the afternoon
and evening though, leading to higher confidence in SLRs closer
to 12-15 to 1. Current appearance of snow falling in the area
looks like bigger flakes and more dendrites than earlier.

The overall liquid equivalent precipitation forecast hasn`t
changed much at all from previous expectations. Latest guidance
has totals ranging from 0.65"-0.9" north to south across the
western two-thirds of the forecast area, with totals up to an
inch in the east. A few mesoscale models still exceed an inch in
the east due to the lake enhancement and low level convergence
this afternoon into tonight. There continues to be run to run
variance among the models with where exactly these highest
totals will occur in the east.

The most impactful snowfall with this storm is still expected
to be through this evening most places, with some higher rates
hanging on in the east into tonight. Models have slowed just a
touch with the timing of the snow exiting early Sunday, so now
thinking there may still be some accumulating snow in the east
between 6 and 8 am, with snow coming to a quick end by around 9
am. Additionally, gusty winds developing by early Sunday may
result in some blowing and drifting snowfall through at least
the morning, especially in the east. This could warrant the need
for a Winter Weather Advisory through at least morning after
the Winter Storm Warning expires.

DDV

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Sunday night through Saturday:

Continued signal for stretch of Arctic air settling into the region
into the start of the week. Sunday night temps fall into the single
digits with the exception of the lakeshore, but winds chills are
expected to dip a bit lower to around zero and even below zero in a
few locations. Continue with the cold, below normal temps for Monday
as high pressure works its way across the region with daytime temps
creeping only into the lower 20s and single digit overnight lows.
However, a mid-level shortwave trough is progged to dig across the
plains and lift up the Ohio River Valley overnight Monday and pull
in enough moisture to clip southern portion of the CWA. Model
trends do have this system trekking a bit further north than
yesterday, thus there is an increasing chance to see some better
snow accumulations with this system. Latest trend suggests
additional amounts anywhere from few tenths to around an inch
given the moist, saturated profile aloft sitting at below freezing
with modest lift from mid-level dCVA and northern fringes of the
low- level WAA in the DGZ.

Tuesday will remain chilly as another high pressure tracks across
the region, but midweek will see temps warm a bit back toward
normal, but still on the colder side of climo. This trend will be
short-lived as the pattern becomes more active with a series of
clippers traversing the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions into
next weekend. This will start off with an Arctic cold front expected
to drop temps back down 15-20F below normal on later Wednesday into
Thursday and may bring an additional round of snow. Then long-range
models continue to show a series of clippers developing and tracking
across the region Friday and Saturday yielding additional snowfall
accumulations. Will continue to monitor these wintry trends, but
meteorological winter (December 1st) looks to coincide with the
onset of our wintry weather this year.

Wagner

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings ranging from 0.5-1.8 kft and
visibility a mile or less continue across southern WI as snow
continues this afternoon. Beginning to see higher snowfall rates
move into southern WI bringing 1/4SM visibility and hourly
rates approaching 1 inch per hour. Expect this to spread
northeastward through the late afternoon and into the early
evening hours. This will be the window to see the greatest
accumulations with an additional 6-9 inches as low pressure
lifts just south of the WI/IL border into lower MI. Lower flight
conditions will continue through the late evening and overnight
hours as snow/snow rates gradually lessen from southwest to the
northeast after 03z, but will linger longer along the lakeshore
through 06z. Light to moderate snow lingers holds on into
Sunday morning before gradually diminishing after daybreak.

East-southeast winds are picking up a bit through the afternoon with
gusts of 20-25kt for a couple of hours. Winds then shift more
southerly for southeastern WI and east northeast for areas north of
I-94 later this evening as the low pressure skirts south of the
WI/IL border. Overnight winds will back to the northwest and
increase through early Sunday morning and through the afternoon with
another round of gusts of 20-25 kt through Sunday afternoon. With
these two windows for gustier winds and falling snow/fresh snowpack
on the ground on a bit more on the fluffier side, can expect some
blowing/drifting snow impacts as well, even as the snowfall ends.

Wagner

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 255 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Breezy east to southeasterly winds will gradually pick up
through the afternoon across the southern portion of Lake
Michigan as low pressure over northern MO lift south of the lake
this evening. Still expecting southeasterly gales for the
southern third of the lake and the Gale Warning remains in
effect into tonight as well as small craft conditions for the
southeastern WI nearshore waters. Then the low pressure is
expected to deepen as it lifts into lower MI overnight into
Sunday. Will see winds back to the northwest across all of the
lake into Sunday. Expecting winds to ramp back up to small craft
levels in the nearshores and gale force out over the open
waters, especially for the east side of Lake Michigan through
the evening. Given the confidence of the gusty winds building
behind the departing low, will upgrade to a Gale Warning for
Sunday. Winds will gradually ease Sunday night into Monday as
high pressure builds across the Great Lakes exiting to the east
Monday night.

Wagner

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-
     WIZ057-WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ060-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-
     WIZ066-WIZ067-WIZ068-WIZ069-WIZ070-WIZ071-WIZ072 until 6
     AM Sunday.

LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ876-LMZ878 until
     9 PM Saturday.

     Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...6 AM Sunday
     to 7 PM Sunday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 11 PM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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