Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
726 FXUS63 KMKX 201722 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Stratus clouds and some fog continuing into tonight. - Temperatures hovering near or just above normal this weekend into early next week. - More active pattern with a cooling trend Wednesday and Thursday (Thanksgiving) next week. && .UPDATE... Issued 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 This afternoon into Saturday morning: Swly winds and weak warm advection will likely maintain the stratus clouds and some fog this afternoon into tonight. This is occurring well south of cyclogenesis from nrn Ontario into Hudson Bay with its weak, trailing cold front to gradually move across srn WI tnt. Fairly significant subsidence and drying will then take hold toward Fri AM with PWATs dropping to 0.20 inches. Thus expect to lose the stratus sometime during the morning hours. A separate shortwave trough in the srn USA jet stream will then track from the central Great Plains across the Ohio Valley for Fri-Sat. The QG dynamics and overall lift will remain to the south, but broken to overcast high cloud cover could occur over far srn WI on Fri. Otherwise a weak sfc ridge will prevail over srn WI with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies north of the high cloud cover into Sat AM. Temps will remain several degrees above normal. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Today through tonight: Main concern through the early morning hours is fog development across southwestern to far south-central Wisconsin. Patchy dense fog has developed across Lafayette, Green, and Rock Counties, with a Special Weather Statement in effect for 1/2 to 1/4 mile visibilities through 8 AM CST this morning. Pockets of drizzle continuing over southeastern Wisconsin are keeping visibilites higher in the 1-3 mile range, with visibilities along lake Michigan remaining at 4-5 miles. Fog will lift after sunrise this morning, with areas of drizzle expected to continue throughout the day (visibilities lowered within these drizzle patches), tapering off from north to south into the overnight hours. High temperatures today will remain in the 40s, with surface WAA battling low clouds and drizzle. Some models have temperatures reaching the 50s, while others keep temperatures as low as 40 degrees through the afternoon. Thinking that WAA will at least serve to bring in highs in the mid-40s, but the wide spread of temperature values may require updates through the day today. Tonight, as drizzle tapers off and low clouds exit behind a cold front, expect temperatures to fall into the upper 30s near Lake Michigan, mid-30s inland, and low 30s in southwestern Wisconsin. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Saturday through Thursday: For Saturday afternoon and Sunday a Canadian shortwave trough in nwly flow aloft will track from the nrn Great Lakes to the lower Great Lakes. At the surface, a trough/cold front will approach Sat afternoon with swly winds and warm advection ensuing. A band of cloud cover will occur with the QG lift but no precipitation is expected at this time. The weak cold front will then pass late Sat nt. High pressure will then follow for Sun afternoon and night. Relatively mild temps will continue for the weekend. Will begin to see an upper-level ridge begin to build in for the start of next week and warm things up a bit through Monday. However, 500mb cluster model analysis continue to hint a longwave trough to dig across the central CONUS Tuesday through midweek, which may bring a bout of precip to the Upper Midwest region. Latest long range model guidance favor a mild pattern for the start of the week, thus looking mostly like any precip would be rain at this time. And looking further ahead toward the Thanksgiving holiday, there is a persisting signal for things cool down, with potential for below normal temps for the second half of the week. Still several days out and there will be plenty of changes with next week`s system as uncertainty remains high given hints of phasing mid-level troughs. Gehring/Wagner && .AVIATION... Issued 1122 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 MVFR Cigs will continue along the counties adjacent to Lake MI this afternoon and tnt but areas of Cigs below 1 kft are possible. For the remainder of srn WI, Cigs will mostly remain under 1 kft with pockets of fog, with clearing around or after sunrise on Fri. VFR conditions to then prevail for the remainder of Fri. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 308 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 High pressure will remain over the eastern Great Lakes through today, while low pressure progresses eastward through northern Ontario and deepens in the Hudson Bay overnight tonight. Expect light southwesterly winds to develop this morning, becoming breezy this afternoon and evening. Winds shift to become northwesterly and diminish overnight as a cold front from this low progresses eastward across the Lake. Light northwest winds continue through Friday, becoming light and variable Saturday as weak high pressure passes over the lake. Winds will become southwesterly again Saturday night into Sunday, and westerly by Sunday night as an additional low pressure system deepens across the Hudson Bay and brings another weak cold front through the Lake. MH && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee