Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
460 FXUS63 KMKX 030226 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 926 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures climbing well above normal today through the weekend. Highs in the mid to upper 80s are expected Friday and Saturday. - Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances (~30-60%) return for early next week. - Gusty winds return Sunday. Marine headlines are anticipated. && .UPDATE... Issued 900 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 No major concerns in the forecast as things remain on track with mostly clear skies expected through the day Friday with high pressure continuing to dominate the region. The only feature that may come into play is a weak low level WAA that may bring some elevated shower activity but given the dry air below that it appears that showers would be unlikely to reach the surface. This would primarily be late tonight through the morning hours Friday. Kuroski && .SHORT TERM... Issued 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Tonight through Sunday... Strong high pressure over the eastern US stretching from New England, southwest into the Ohio River Valley and southern Appalachians, will continue to promote mostly quiet and dry weather. Some CAMs depict a bit of 850mb WAA leaning into central WI from MN/IA tonight, sparking some elevated shower development. Given the weak CAPE depicted (< 200 j/kg) and a 6000 ft depth of dry air beneath the unstable layer, have opted to mention sprinkles in favor of light rain/thunder overnight into early Friday, mainly northwest of Hwy 151. The strong high is expected to sink south into Middle Appalachia by Saturday afternoon. While the high remains in place, a strong ridge aloft will allow for unseasonably warm air to build over much of the eastern US. For us here in southern Wisconsin, highs will reach into the upper 80s Friday and Saturday (cooler by Lake Michigan), and low to mid 80s on Sunday. Dew points should be comfortable through the weekend and remain in the 50s to low 60s. The high pressure will also continue to promote light to moderate southerly winds until a stronger pressure gradient moves overhead Sunday, leading to gusty southerlies. Overnight lows will fall into the low to mid 60s. Given drying throughout the week, models struggle to depict widespread fog, but a few patchy areas of ground fog can`t be ruled out nightly. CMiller && .LONG TERM... Issued 207 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Sunday Night through Thursday... Ridging aloft begins to break down Sunday afternoon and the high is expected to shrink eastward late Sunday into Sunday night. A large trough is then depicted by long range models to approach the eastern Great Plains to Minnesota by Monday morning, with a zone of baroclinicity and frontogenesis forming from the Upper Peninsula of Michigan southwest into Kansas. This frontal zone then stalls through at least Tuesday afternoon, before the trough aloft kicks the front through mid week. While the front is stalled, periods of showers and storms will occur Monday through Tuesday. EPS ensembles depict a swath of 60-80% chances for total QPF through Wednesday >= 0.5 inches, but only 20-30% chances for total QPF for >= 1 inch (30-50%, and 10-30% respectively from the GEFS. Bottom line: rain next week is not expected to completely remove any drought deficits at this time. The rain and cloud cover along the frontal boundary will promote cooler temperatures with highs in the 70s on Monday and then low to mid 60s Tuesday through Thursday following the frontal passage, which is right around normal for this time of the year. CMiller && .AVIATION... Issued 925 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly clear skies dominating the period. Very slight chance for a brief shower across central WI late tonight through the morning Friday but no impacts are expected from this, if it occurs at all. Otherwise generally expect light southwest winds that will turn southeast near the lake in the afternoon with the passage of the lake breeze. Kuroski && .MARINE... Issued 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025 Broad high pressure will linger over the east coast of the United States into this weekend, generally moving southward with time. Winds will continue from a southerly to southwesterly direction, with light to moderate speeds through Friday. Winds are expected to pick up Saturday afternoon as a stronger pressure gradient moves over the lake between the high pressure and approaching low pressure over the northern plains. Gusty south to southwest winds will then continue through Sunday, with some potential for gales Sunday afternoon over the northern half of Lake Michigan. Winds should then ease early Monday morning following the passage of a frontal boundary. CMiller && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee