861
FXUS63 KMKX 020803
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
303 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures climbing well above normal today through the
  weekend.

- Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm chances
  (~20-40%) return for early next week.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Today through Friday:

The shortwave trough over the Mid MO River Valley will lift
newd and weaken today and tnt with just weak PVA and mid to high
cloud cover at times. At the surface, ssely sfc winds and low
level warm advection will boost temps back into the lower 80s
for well inland locations. The sfc winds will then shift swly
for Fri with continued low level warm advection, as upper
ridging returns to the Upper MS River Valley and wrn Great
Lakes. This will boost 925 mb temps to 22-23C with sfc temps
warming into the upper 80s away from the lake.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Friday night through Wednesday:

High pressure will remain entrenched over the Mid-Atlantic region
keeping weak high pressure over southern WI as low pressure builds
northeast from the upper plains. In the upper levels, large scale
ridging will remain the dominant feature over most of the US.
However, the upper low over the far western US will steadily lift
through the central US over the weekend. While the upper low and
correlated surface low will not directly impact southern WI the
system appears likely to drag a front through the region early
next week. While support in the upper levels seems limited the low
to mid levels seem to carry enough moisture and forcing (WAA,
front) to bring showers and maybe some thunderstorms to the
region. In addition the nature of the trailing front may stall for
a bit, becoming somewhat of a stationary front. This will then
bring ongoing potential for shower/storms across southern WI from
Monday through Tuesday before higher pressure nudges back in
behind the front for the middle of the week.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR conditions today into Friday. Sct-bkn mid to high clouds are
forecast.

Gehring

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 303 AM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

Modest southeast winds will gradually weaken through the day then
shift southerly tonight through Friday night as high pressure
around 30.4 inches over New England shifts south into the Mid
Atlantic States. Broad low pressure will form over the northern
Great Plains Saturday, and will gradually attempt to work toward
the upper Mississippi River Valley by the end of the weekend. This
will bring breezy southerly winds to Lake Michigan for the weekend
with gales possible over the north half for Sunday afternoon and
night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until noon today north
of Wind Point for high waves.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645 until noon
     Thursday.

&&

$$

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