184
FXUS63 KMKX 111634
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1034 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy southwest winds are anticipated late this morning and
  into the mid afternoon, with gusts between 25 and 35 mph.
  Higher speeds in that range will occur along the Lake Michigan
  shoreline.

- Temperatures warm through the week and are trending above
  normal for the end of the week.

- Chances (30 to 50 percent) for showers and thunderstorms
  develop over the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1011 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Dry conditions are expected through the rest of today, but
southwest winds will grow gusty late this morning and through
the mid afternoon. Gusts between 25 to 35 knots are expected,
with the higher end of that range occuring over counties closer
to Lake Michigan.

CMiller

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 314 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Today through Thursday night:

A narrow north to south band of virga or brief very light snow
or flurries will move ewd across srn WI through 14Z, supported
by strong 700 mb warm advection and PVA from a vorticity maximum.
At the surface, a wave of low pressure and warm front will then
pass this afternoon but no pcpn is expected due to a dry
airmass. Temps will warm into the lower 40s but brisk winds will
cap wind chills in the lower 30s.

Nwly flow aloft will continue into the middle of the week while
low pressure tracks from Ontario into Quebec. This will help
maintain brisk wnwly winds into Wed, although temps may warm to
50F.

Upper ridging will then take hold over the Great Plains for
Thu-Thu nt as an upper trough moves into the wrn USA. At the
surface, high pressure will shift across srn WI Thu afternoon
and evening. Warm, moist advection may result in mostly cloudy
skies in the afternoon and evening, but the warming trend will
continue.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 314 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Friday through Monday:

The upper altitude ridge makes steady eastward progress into the
region late this week. GEFS and ECMWF-ENS temperature plots
indicate the warming trend is set to continue steadily through the
end of the week, peaking on Saturday with highs around 60
degrees, perhaps even the low to mid 60s depending on the choice
of ensemble. To put this in context, 1991-2020 climatological
`normal` temperatures for Madison on November 15th would be a high
of 45 and a low of 29. We`re forecasting a high in the low to mid
60s and a low in the mid 40s. Records for MKE and MSN are in the
upper 60s, and are unlikely to be broken based on the current
forecast. Light southeast winds accompany the rising temperatures
on Friday, keeping shoreline areas several degrees cooler. Modest
southerlies would then take over on Saturday, with the warmth
likely to spread further east.

Low pressure tracking east across Canada drags a cold front
through the region this weekend, with an arrival of Saturday
evening or later (hence the warmth peaking during the day
Saturday, with surface WAA ahead of the front). We have mostly
cloudy skies and 20% rain chances through the daytime hours of
Saturday to account for the strong WAA ahead of the front,
followed by 25-45% rain chances Saturday night through Sunday
along and behind the cold front. Behind this front, temperatures
slowly return towards normal (or just a few degrees above normal) into
early next week, with low predictability from then onwards.
Ensembles indicate that despite the modest CAA behind this
weekend`s cold front, we`re looking at an `all rain` event through
the weekend, with our forecast minimum temperatures not
approaching freezing or even entering the 30s until Sunday night
and Monday night. Only 1 of the 50 ECMWF ensemble members I
checked called for light snow with the system, and none of the 30
GEFS members.

Sheppard

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Expect gusty southwest winds from 20 to 25 knots, with some
higher gusts along the lakeshore, late this morning and into
the mid afternoon amid VFR conditions. Winds will become more
westerly tonight, with gusts easing to below 20 knots. West-
northwest gusts then return to 25 to 30 knots tomorrow.

CMiller

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 314 AM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

A high pressure ridge of 30.0 inches will move east across Lake
Michigan early this morning, quickly followed by the passage of a
low pressure trough around 29.7 inches late this afternoon and
early evening. Brisk westerly winds this morning will back to
southwesterly gales over the south half of the lake this afternoon
and early evening. A Gale Warning is in effect. The winds will
remain just under gale force in the north. Brisk west to northwest
winds will then prevail late tonight through Wednesday. The winds
may briefly approach gales. Much lighter winds are then expected
Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night as high pressure
approaches from the west. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect
from 9 AM CST today until 9 PM CST Wed from Sheboygan to
Winthrop Harbor for brisk westerly winds.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-
     LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
     until 9 PM Tuesday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 9 PM
     Wednesday.

&&

$$

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