Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
825 FXUS63 KMKX 240333 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 933 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low clouds and eventually some fog and drizzle/very light rain will build into the area on Monday. - 60 to 80 percent chances for light rain showers Monday night, with additional showers Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of a strong cold front. - Much colder and blustery for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day. - Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow by next weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued 933 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 An area of low clouds and possibly some fog should move northeast into the southwest parts of the area overnight into early Monday morning, with the low clouds and some fog spreading further northeast into the rest of Monday. The timing may still be in question for any fog, as well as how much fog may occur. For now, kept patchy fog mention in these areas until better confidence on timing and extent of the fog is found. Weak warm air advection overnight should help slow the rather quick drop in temperatures, with values remaining steady or very slowly rising. This may allow for some fog in low lying areas as well. Continued warm air advection into the rest of Monday should support the low clouds and some drizzle or very light rain to develop. Have rising PoPs from 20 to 50 percent, highest in the northwest parts of the area, Monday afternoon to account for this. Temperatures Monday may be limited to the upper 40s to around 50 with the low clouds. Should see more widespread light rain Monday night (60 to 80 percent chances), as the main 500 mb shortwave trough slides by just to the south, and the warm air advection continues over and to the north of the area. Wood && .SHORT TERM... Issued 156 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tonight through Monday night: Quiet weather conditions are expected for the first part of tonight, with temperatures falling into the 30s. By early Monday morning, southerly flow will push increased amounts of low level moisture into the area from the south, eventually resulting in low stratus and fog across the region. There is some uncertainty with the timing of this, but it does appear likely that most of Monday will be cloudy and potentially foggy and drizzly. Temperatures will remain relatively mild in the mid to upper 40s. As moisture continues to increase late Monday, drizzle will give way to light rain showers as shortwave energy lifts northeastward through Missouri and Iowa. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 156 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tuesday through Sunday: We may see a brief break in the shower activity Tuesday morning before it picks back up as another, stronger shortwave approaches from the west. An occluded front will move across the region Tuesday evening, followed by a strong cold front Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to fall rapidly during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, with daily highs for the 26th likely being set at midnight. Temperatures may hold steady or perhaps warm a degree or two during the day Wednesday, but will otherwise continue to fall into the 20s by Wednesday evening, with morning lows on Thanksgiving in the low 20s. The bulk of any post-frontal precipitation is will remain to our north Wednesday and Thursday, though a few pockets of flurries can`t be ruled out. Northwest winds will remain gusty on Thanksgiving Day, with wind chills in the teens to around 20. Guidance continues to suggest an active pattern heading into next weekend, including the potential for accumulating snow across the region. That said, there is a large range of potential outcomes, and confidence is not high in any of the particular details. This will be a timeframe to keep an eye on over the next several days, especially for those with post- Thanksgiving travel interests across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 933 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Light south winds are expected overnight into Monday. An area of low clouds with ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet AGL and possibly some light fog of 2 to 5 miles should move northeast into the southwest parts of the area overnight into early Monday morning. The low clouds and some fog should spread further northeast into the rest of Monday. The timing may still be in question for any fog, as well as how much fog may occur. Some fog may develop in low lying areas as well overnight. Low clouds should linger Monday into Monday night, with ceilings dropping to 500 to 800 feet AGL Monday night. Some drizzle or very light rain may develop Monday afternoon and become more widespread Monday night. Visibility may drop to 2 to 5 miles at times. Winds should remain fairly light and southerly Monday night. Wood && .MARINE... Issued 933 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Southwest winds are expected overnight, as high pressure around 30.4 inches moves into the Mid-Atlantic region. Winds will be south to southwest and increase on Monday, as low pressure around 29.8 inches develops in the Middle Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds will continue into Tuesday, as low pressure strengthens to 29.6 inches over Minnesota. A cold front from this low will surge eastward across the lake Tuesday night, as the low continues to strengthen to around 29.3 inches, bringing westerly gales by Wednesday morning. Westerly gales will become northwesterly Wednesday night, continuing into Thursday morning before diminishing, as the low pressure system finally shifts into northern Quebec. Boxell/Wood && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee