Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
065 FXUS63 KMKX 111524 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1024 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A few showers possible near Lake Michigan today, but otherwise dry weather through the weekend - Shower chances return Sunday night into Monday && .UPDATE... Issued 1017 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 No major changes to the going forecast this morning. Still expecting some slight chances for scattered light showers/sprinkles along the Lake Michigan shoreline this afternoon with approaching cloud cover from the northeast. CMiller && .SHORT TERM... Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Today through Sunday: Satellite imagery clearly depicts a low pressure system spinning over eastern Ontario early this morning. One more weak surface trough will drop down Lake Superior this morning and cause a wind shift to the NNE. The favorable fetch down the long axis of the lake and a lake to 850mb temp diff in the 9 to 12C range supports lake effect clouds. These should affect our nearshore and lakeshore areas from late morning through much of the afternoon. The leading edge of the low clouds that are currently over the northern part of Lake Michigan are steadily tracking south-southwest and should reach Sheboygan around 6 AM and Milwaukee around 9 AM. There may be a little push of moisture down the lake later in the day, as forecast RAP and NAM soundings show a slightly deeper cloud layer (although the HRRR maintains a shallow cloud layer). A few light rain showers or sprinkles near the lakeshore north of Milwaukee still look possible, so kept the slight chance of precip in the fcst, but removed it for Milwaukee and south due to forecast drier air there. The lake clouds may thin or scatter out a bit tonight, but should linger into Sunday morning. This will keep temps warmer by the lake, but clear skies inland will allow for mid 40s for lows. Winds will begin to increase out of the southeast Sunday morning as low pressure approaches from the Northern Plains. Any lingering low clouds near the lake should diminish as warmer air moves in, and high clouds should start to increase for inland areas. Highs are expected to reach the lower 70s inland and upper 60s near the lake. Cronce && .LONG TERM... Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Sunday night through Friday: The models have fairly good agreement on strong low pressure around 985 mb over srn Manitoba Sunday evening tracking to Hudson Bay by 00Z Tue as it fills to 997 mb. Meanwhile an upper ridge will extend from ern TX into Lower MI. Thus the trailing cold front from the Canadian low will weaken as it approaches srn WI, but the frontal passage will likely still occur on Mon. Only 10-30 percent chances for lgt rain is forecast. Strong high pressure will then follow in the wake of the strong low from west to east across far srn Canada, with the high reaching Lake Superior on Wed, then into much of the Great Lakes for Thu. Aloft an upper ridge will be building over the Great Plains then moving into the wrn Great Lakes for Fri. A warm, moist advection pattern within the building ridge will generate some showers west of the MS River with drier air mostly inhibiting rain chances for srn WI. Cannot completely rule out rain though, with rain chances of 20-30 percent at times. Temps will be near to slightly above normal for the week. Gehring && .AVIATION... Issued 1024 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Expect continuing VFR over inland Wisconsin into this afternoon, while lakeshore terminals experience MVFR clouds moving in from the lakeshore. A few sprinkles, to light showers will be possible with the afternoon clouds. CMiller && .MARINE... Issued 327 AM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025 Low pressure over eastern Ontario will weaken today, but a weak surface trough extending back from it will slide down Lake Michigan later this morning and bring a wind shift to the north- northeast. High pressure will cross the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Modest southeast winds will then prevail from late tonight through Sunday night, and become southerly on Monday. This will occur as strong high pressure prevails over southeast Canada and low pressure tracks from the northern high plains into Manitoba. Nearshore: The persistent northerly winds continue to create waves up to 4 feet south of Milwaukee, so we extended the Small Craft Advisory until mid morning for the southern two zones. Waves have diminished to 3 feet or less north of there, so we will allow the SC.Y to expire at 09Z/4AM. Another Small Craft Advisory will be needed from early Sunday morning through Monday due to persistent southeast winds, a few gusts up to 25 kt, and waves over 4 feet. Highest waves will be toward Sheboygan. Cronce && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee