988
FXUS63 KMKX 242030
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds, fog and drizzle/light rain will spread into
  southern Wisconsin this afternoon and linger into Tuesday.
  Periods of dense fog are possible.

- Much colder and blustery for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow for
  the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rest of Today through Wednesday:

We continue to expect low clouds and some fog as well as
mist/drizzle to push in over the next several hours though it
has bee much slower to push in than previously thought. It still
remains uncertain on how quickly this will occur but it at least
appears likely to happen at some point. The other uncertainties
more have to do with how impactful the fog will be once it moves
in. Some dense fog will be possible, especially overnight. In
addition some patches of light rain may push in as well, likely
due to the PVA from the weakening trough aloft, some WAA, with
enough midlevel moisture to support some showers. Regardless
drizzle and mist look to remain likely for much of the area
given the low level moisture and minor low level forcing.
However, southern WI still in large part expects to be missed by
the vast majority of the better forcing to the north and
southeast that would bring better rain amounts. We may be able
to expect some better rain chances in far southeast WI and
toward central WI later tonight into Tuesday morning.

As the warm front lifts through tonight we may dry out into
Tuesday, though drizzle will remain possible. We should also
expect to warm up a bit with southerly winds but clouds will
likely keep temperatures from escaping the low 50s. The cold
front will then be expected to swing through Tuesday
evening/night bringing the best chances (60-80%) for widespread
rain showers. With the surface low becoming fairly strong this
will help usher in some very chilly air by late Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Given that we will still have the
surface low in the region with some TROWAL effect we could
easily see some snow on the backside of this system. In fact it
cannot be ruled out that we see some mild accumulations up to an
inch on the northern side of the CWA over the course of the day
Wednesday.

With a strong LLJ aloft, winds will significantly increase by
early Wednesday morning with afternoon wind gusts over the land
having potential to reach Wind Advisory criteria, especially
closer to the lake.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Wednesday night through Monday:

Winds will come down a bit Wednesday night as the LLJ weakens
and the low pushes further east but we expect to remain breezy
into Thursday. Given the continued breeziness and very cold
conditions ushered in by the cold front expect wind chills in
the single digits Thursday morning. Forecast 1000-500mb
thicknesses are expected to reach near 515dam from Thursday
morning through Friday morning. This will keep very chilly
temperatures through that period. Wind chills Friday morning
will also reach the single digits but that will largely be
because of cooler temperatures but weaker winds overall. Likely
less cloud cover Friday due to higher pressure overhead will
contribute to lower temperatures.

Into Saturday, attention quickly turns to the uncertainty in the
forecast of an upper level trough to the west and various
embedded disturbances that will play a substantial role in the
potential for an impactful winter system. Currently the
uncertainty is such that no discernible outlook would properly
encompass the situation as there is timing, phasing, and track
issues with this next system that each of which will greatly
change the impact of this system. Various models bring some
light snow ahead of the main system which brings largely rain
while other models suggest mostly snow, early arrival, and
substantial accumulation potential. While uncertainty is
massive, it remains something to keep an eye on as the impacts
could be significant if it trends toward a compact, panhandle
hook scenario that we remain on the cool side of. In addition
this impacts the forecast into early next week with substantial
temp differences within ensembles given the differences in the
development and progression of the upper low/trough over the
weekend.

Kuroski

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The onset of aviation impacts today has been delayed likely by
some low level dry air. However, LIFR/IFR CIGS with MVFR to IFR
VSBYS are finally starting to push in from the southwest this
afternoon with impacts to VSBYS and CIGS expected for much of
southern WI over the next several hours but may be until tonight
before is fully encompasses southern WI. Drizzle/mist will also
be likely given the abundant very low level moisture. There is
some uncertainty on how widespread the lowest VSBYS get and how
low but some quarter mile VSBYS seem possible, particularly
later tonight. CIGS look much more likely to be LIFR, perhaps
even some VLIFR with some periods of MVFR/IFR as the lower end
CIGS push in. The timing looks focused for tonight. The best
chances for rain this evening and tonight appear largely focused
for west central and far southeast WI.

Some VSBY and CIG improvement is expected into the day Tuesday
but generally expected to remain IFR at least and continuing
through Tuesday night.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 230 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Southerly winds will decrease tonight as the broadened low
pressure around 29.7 inches pushes over the western Great Lakes
region through the day Tuesday. The low will strengthen to 29.6
inches as it tracks across Minnesota Tuesday with the associated
cold front surging across southern Lake Michigan Tuesday night
and lifting through northern Lake Michigan Wednesday as the low
further deepens to 29.3 inches over eastern Lake Superior. The
strong low will generally maintain its strength as it crosses
Ontario Wednesday night and Quebec on Thursday.

Westerly gales will likely develop over southern Lake Michigan
early Wednesday morning and expand into the north half several
hours later. The westerly gales will become northwesterly
Wednesday night and persist into Thursday afternoon before
diminishing. It remains possible for some storm force gusts
Wednesday afternoon and night and thus we cannot rule out
shorter fused Storm Warning. However, a Gale Watch remains in
effect at this time.

Winds will diminish as high pressure of 30.5 inches crosses the
midwest on Friday. Look for southerly winds to develop Sunday as
low pressure develops over the western half of the country. More
gales will bee possible this weekend into early next week.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM Friday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Wednesday to 12
     AM Friday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 AM Wednesday to 6
     PM Thursday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee