935
FXUS63 KMKX 071501 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
901 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mix of light rain and light snow developing inland from the
  lake Saturday afternoon, with rain for the lake counties,
  although locations toward central Wisconsin could stay dry.
  Precipitation transitioning to all light snow Saturday night
  but with accumulations under an inch and still mostly rain
  from Milwaukee south to Kenosha.

- First winter-like air of the season arrives late this weekend
  into early next week, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
  below normal Sunday and Monday.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 901 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Keeping an eye on an area of showers across southern Wisconsin
associated with a shortwave. Will need to bump precip chances
up for this afternoon into early evening if this area of rain
holds together. Otherwise, expect plenty of sunshine through
the morning, with forecast high temps on track for the afternoon
hours.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 444 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Today through Saturday night:

Skies have cleared nicely in the wake of the showers and storms.
A weak cold front over wrn WI will pass over the next few hours,
while a sfc low around 995 mb over Upper MI slightly deepens on
its way to srn Quebec for tnt. A secondary cold front will then
pass late this afternoon and evening along with another
shortwave trough that is currently over ND. Fcst soundings do
saturate from 850-700 mb with some minor lift so will maintain
the 20 percent chance of showers late this afternoon into the
early evening. Temps will warm well into the 50s today ahead of
the secondary cold front.

As weak high pressure shifts into nrn WI tnt and with low
pressure moving away, nely boundary layer flow will develop with
chances for lake effect rain showers over far se WI late tnt
then increasing to 50-60% chance on Saturday. A stronger
shortwave trough over the Dakotas will then track to ern MO and
wrn IL by 00Z Sun. It will then track along the nrn Ohio Valley
Sat nt with a developing sfc low following a similar track. A
nrn stream upper trough will then dig swd into WI late Sat nt.
Thus the best PVA, Fgen, and WAA at the jet level sets up
across nrn IL. The ensemble mean QPF of the Canadian and ECMWF
keeps the axis over nrn IL while the GEFS is along the IL and WI
border. The 06Z NAM however is now taking a farther srn
solution similar to the Canadian and ECMWF. Thus lowered the QPF
a bit and would expect any rain or snowfall rates to be light
with the exception of near the lake, but temps will remain warm
enough for rain for much of this event. Farther inland, light
rain will develop late Sat afternoon or early evening and
transition to light snow, but there is some doubt on
precipitation even occurring toward central WI. Any snow accums
will remain under an inch and mostly after dark for srn WI.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 444 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Sunday through Thursday:

Gusty northwest winds behind the strengthening low to the
southeast on Sunday will bring strong cold air advection into the
area. Some light snow showers may linger Sunday, as a deep and
anomalously low 500 mb trough shifts into the region per 500 mb
cluster analysis. Ensembles suggest cold temperatures below
seasonal normal values, with highs only in the middle 30s Sunday
and middle to upper 30s Monday. Lows Sunday night should be in
the upper teens to lower 20s, with lower to middle 20s Monday
night. Wind chills should be in the 20s Sunday and Monday with
teens Sunday night and Monday night.

500 mb cluster analysis suggests the deep and anomalously low 500
mb height trough should gradually push east of the region by
later Tuesday into Wednesday. General northwest flow with the
trough well east and a ridge developing well to the west may
result over the region later in the week. Warm air advection may
occur at times Tuesday into the rest of the week, which should
allow for temperatures to moderate closer to seasonal normal
values. Gusty winds may occur at times, with the relatively tight
pressure gradients over the region during the week.

Wood

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 901 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Mostly clear skies this morning will be followed by increasing
clouds this afternoon into the evening as a shortwave and cold
front drop through the area. Could see sprinkles or a few
showers as well later this afternoon into this evening. Latest
short term models along with upstream observations suggest that
ceilings could dip to MVFR at times later today into Saturday.
There will be a much better chance for lower ceilings then later
tomorrow into tomorrow night as widespread precipitation moves
into the area. Still watching the potential for a rain/snow mix
with this second round of precip, possibly transitioning to
mainly light snow Saturday night. Any snow accumulations would
be light and largely confined to grassy areas and elevated
surfaces due to relatively mild ground temps.

Breezy westerly winds this morning will become lighter and veer
to northerly this evening into tonight. Light northeast winds
are then expected through the day Saturday.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 444 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Low pressure around 29.4 inches over Lake Superior early this
morning will deepen slightly as it moves to southwest Quebec by
early this evening. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the open
waters through early this morning for southwest gales.

A cold front will cross the lake just after sunrise today with
winds shifting to brisk westerly winds for the remainder of the
morning but below gales. Another cold front will then shift winds
to northwesterly this afternoon then northerly tonight, but with
diminishing winds as weak high pressure builds into northern
Wisconsin.

Another low pressure area will then develop and track from
Illinois across the northern Ohio Valley Saturday night and the
Mid Atlantic States on Sunday. North to northwest gales may
develop later Saturday night into Sunday across the southern half
of the open waters. Northwest to north winds remain gusty into
Monday, with some gales possible.

A Small Craft Advisory will continue through the day from
Sheboygan to Winthrop Harbor. Additional advisories will be
needed late this weekend into next week due to a windy period
forecast. Gales may occur at times.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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