Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
813 FXUS63 KMKX 231956 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 156 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low clouds and eventually fog and drizzle will build into the area on Monday. - 60-80% chance for light rain showers Monday night, with additional showers Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of a strong cold front. - Much colder, blustery for Wednesday and Thursday. - Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 156 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tonight through Monday night: Quiet weather conditions are expected for the first part of tonight, with temperatures falling into the 30s. By early Monday morning, southerly flow will push increased amounts of low level moisture into the area from the south, eventually resulting in low stratus and fog across the region. There is some uncertainty with the timing of this, but it does appear likely that most of Monday will be cloudy and potentially foggy and drizzly. Temperatures will remain relatively mild in the mid to upper 40s. As moisture continues to increase late Monday, drizzle will give way to light rain showers as shortwave energy lifts northeastward through Missouri and Iowa. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 156 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tuesday through Sunday: We may see a brief break in the shower activity Tuesday morning before it picks back up as another, stronger shortwave approaches from the west. An occluded front will move across the region Tuesday evening, followed by a strong cold front Tuesday night. Temperatures are expected to fall rapidly during the pre-dawn hours on Wednesday, with daily highs for the 26th likely being set at midnight. Temperatures may hold steady or perhaps warm a degree or two during the day Wednesday, but will otherwise continue to fall into the 20s by Wednesday evening, with morning lows on Thanksgiving in the low 20s. The bulk of any post-frontal precipitation is will remain to our north Wednesday and Thursday, though a few pockets of flurries can`t be ruled out. Northwest winds will remain gusty on Thanksgiving Day, with wind chills in the teens to around 20. Guidance continues to suggest an active pattern heading into next weekend, including the potential for accumulating snow across the region. That said, there is a large range of potential outcomes, and confidence is not high in any of the particular details. This will be a timeframe to keep an eye on over the next several days, especially for those with post- Thanksgiving travel interests across the Great Lakes and Midwest. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 156 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR conditions are expected for the rest of this afternoon and evening. Late tonight into early Monday, low clouds and potentially some areas of fog are expected to move into the region from the south. There is moderate to high confidence that this will occur, but higher levels of uncertainty with the exact timing as well as how low ceilings and visibility will fall. Current TAFs are indicating MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR fog, but ceilings could end up being lower. Once these lower flight conditions move in, they are expected to prevail into at least Monday night. Winds will turn southwesterly by this evening, and remain from the southwest through the day Monday. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 156 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Winds will turn southwesterly tonight, as high pressure moves into the Mid Atlantic region. Winds will turns southerly and increase on Monday as low pressure around 29.8 inches develops in the Middle Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds will continue into Tuesday as low pressure deepens to 29.6 inches over Minnesota. Tuesday night, a cold front from this low will surge eastward across the lake as the low continues to deepen, bringing westerly gales by Wednesday morning to both the open waters and nearshore. Westerly gales will become northwesterly Wednesday night, continuing into Thursday morning before diminishing as low pressure finally lifts northward into northern Quebec. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee