968
FXUS63 KMKX 021627 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
1027 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of light snow is expected later tonight into
  Wednesday morning, as a cold front moves through the area.
  This may bring slippery roads for the Wednesday morning
  commute.

- The cold front will bring colder temperatures and wind chills
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Continued below average temperatures into the weekend.

- Relatively active pattern this weekend into next week, but
  with low confidence on the details.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 1027 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low stratus is quite thin across the area, as visible imagery
shows the snow cover beneath it, with the smoke stacks across
parts of the area giving brief clearing. There is some
uncertainty with if there will be breaks in this shallow low
stratus deck this afternoon, before more moves into the area
tonight. The better chances may be in eastern parts of the area
for any scattering out of this low deck. Winds will shift to the
southwest into this afternoon, with highs in the middle 20s
expected.

Warm air advection tonight into Wednesday morning should keep
temperatures fairly steady, before a cold front moves southeast
through the area Wednesday morning. The front should move
southeast of the area by midday. The front will bring a period
of light snow to the area later tonight into Wednesday morning,
with some modest low level frontogenesis response and the modest
warm air advection.

The moisture profiles on area forecast soundings are saturated
for a three to five hour window, generally speaking, later
tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be around one half
inch of snowfall during this period, which may bring slippery
driving conditions for the Wednesday morning commute. Amounts
may be a little higher if the upward vertical motion gets
stronger with the 12Z suite of guidance.

Temperatures will then shift northwest Wednesday afternoon and
night, with strong cold air advection bringing colder
temperatures and wind chills into the area. Temperatures will
fall in the afternoon and through Wednesday night, with lows in
the single digits below zero over most of the area by 12Z
Thursday.

Wind chills of 14 below to 19 below zero are expected as well
later Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and again Thursday
night into Friday morning. At this time, not expecting wind
chills to drop below 20 below zero, but will continue to monitor
this potential.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 210 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Today and Tonight:

The light snow that affected the region Monday afternoon and
evening has moved east as of early this morning. A few breaks in
the clouds are occurring across southeastern Wisconsin, but
additional stratus is moving in from the west. Partly to mostly
cloudy conditions are expected today, with highs in the mid 20s.
No additional precipitation is expected.

Increasing southerly flow tonight will keep temperatures from
falling much, with overnight lows generally in the upper teens
to around 20. Wind chills will be in the upper single digits to
low teens. Light snow will move in from the north toward
daybreak on Wednesday, along and ahead of a cold front.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 210 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Wednesday through Monday:

Breezy winds are expected with the frontal passage on Wednesday,
along with continued chances for light snow. While most of the
area should see at least a few flakes, QPF and thus snow amounts
look very light; generally less than a half inch. Highs on
Wednesday will likely occur around noon, with temperatures
falling through the 20s during the afternoon hours.

High pressure moves toward the area Wednesday night into
Thursday morning, with clearing skies. This will set the stage
for a very cold start to the day on Thursday, with morning lows
across the east between 0 and -5, and -5 to -10 across the
western portions of the forecast area. Wind chills look to stay
just above advisory levels, but will still be very chilly, with
readings around -15.

Cold temperatures continue Thursday and Thursday night, with
highs on Thursday around 10, and lows Thursday night a few
degrees on either side of zero.

Extended guidance continues to point toward a period of active
northwest flow Friday into next week, with shortwave passages
every day to every other day. Very tough to nail down specific
details regarding strength of these shortwaves and resulting
precipitation at this distance, but the overall pattern would
suggest increased potential for below average temperatures as
well as additional chances for light snow.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 1027 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Low stratus in the 400 to 900 foot AGL range is quite thin
across the area, as satellite imagery shows the snow cover
beneath it, with the smoke stacks across parts of the area
giving brief clearing. There is some uncertainty with if there
will be breaks in this shallow low stratus deck this afternoon,
before more moves into the area tonight. The better chances may
be in eastern parts of the area for any scattering out of this
low deck. Winds will shift to the southwest into this afternoon.

Southwest winds will linger tonight into Wednesday morning,
before a cold front moves southeast through the area. The front
should move southeast of the area by midday, with winds shifting
northwest behind it and becoming gusty in the afternoon and
lingering into Wednesday night.

The front will bring a period of light snow to the area later
tonight into Wednesday morning. There may be around one half
inch of snowfall during this period, with rates under one tenth
of an inch per hour. This may still bring slippery conditions to
runways. Amounts may be a little higher if the front becomes
stronger.

Ceilings should be in the 500 to 1000 foot AGL range generally
later tonight into Wednesday morning, then 1000 to 1500 feet AGL
in the afternoon. Visibility may be reduced to 1 to 4 miles at
times with the light snow.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 1027 AM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

High pressure around 30.1 inches well to the south of the
region will bring light west winds today, becoming southwest and
increasing by early this evening.

A strong cold front along a low pressure trough around 29.8
inches will then cross Lake Michigan Wednesday. Gusty southwest
winds are expected ahead of this front early Wednesday morning,
with gusty northwest winds behind it Wednesday afternoon and
night. Winds will remain just below gales for most the lake,
though a brief period of low end gales is possible Wednesday
night over the far northern part of the lake. Very cold air with
this system will result in a risk for freezing spray Wednesday
night and Thursday.

Light winds are expected Thursday with the influence of high
pressure around 30.4 inches over Illinois and Indiana. Another
period of elevated southwest winds will occur Thursday night
into Friday, as another low pressure trough around 29.8 inches
crosses the Upper Great Lakes region.

Boxell/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...midnight
     Wednesday to 6 AM Thursday.

&&

$$

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