096
FXUS63 KMKX 052110
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
310 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A dusting of snow possible this afternoon and evening. Patchy
  freezing drizzle may mix in during the evening hours.

- Accumulating, light snow is likely Saturday night into early
  Sunday.

- Below normal temperatures will persist into next week, with
  additional rounds of light snow possible at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 310 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Tonight:

Light snow spread into western WI and will continue to march
eastward across the rest of WI this evening. This is tied to mid
level vorticity advection and low-mid level warm air advection
that are associated with a trough of low pressure. Mid levels
are saturating first, and then it takes a little time for the
snow to start reaching the ground. Tracking the steadier area of
snow upstream, it should arrive in the Madison area around 5 pm
and Waukesha around 730 pm. While the better forcing will pull
toward northeast WI, the precip coverage will be rather broad
and most of southern WI (including with WI/IL border) should see
at least some flurries. Accumulations toward central WI will
also be light, with up to a half inch.

Drier air will overspread the mid layers in southern WI late
this evening behind the trough. This will dry out the snow
growth layer and there continues to be a risk for some light
freezing drizzle over southern WI between 8 pm and midnight.
This is due to lingering low level moisture and very weak
frontogenesis to produce a small amount of lift (about -2
mbar/sec omega) before all the moisture departs. If freezing
drizzle occurs, then a light glaze is possible, mainly on
elevated and untreated surfaces.

Saturday through Sunday:

The next system will arrive in southwest WI early Saturday
evening as low pressure tracks into Nebraska. Light snow will
overspread southern WI Saturday night as the low goes through
Iowa and northern IL. This is a compact system tied to a weak
shortwave trough, but the northern portion of that trough slows
down a bit as it crosses WI, while the southern portion (main
show) and the low level warm air advection keeps tracking
eastward into IN. This causes the precip with the system to
become a little disjointed as it crosses southern WI overnight.
Therefore, highest snowfall rates will be confined to northern
IL and possibly far southern WI, the favorable time for this to
occur from midnight through 9 am Sun, with western areas having
the earliest start and end time compared to eastern areas.
Snowfall totals are forecast to range from 1-2 inches toward
central WI and 2 to 3 inches toward the IL border. This will
cause travel headaches for anyone traveling early Sunday
morning. Some areas of southern WI may need a Winter Weather
Advisory.

One thing to watch will be a lake effect band that may affect
the shoreline of east central or southeast WI early Sunday
morning.

Snow will exit by noon Sunday and winds will be a little brisk
out of the north. Sunday highs will be around 20.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 310 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Sunday night through Friday:

A lake effect snow band will likely develop along the long axis
of Lake Michigan and then may drift into southwest WI
Sunday night. It will be a cold night with arctic air overhead,
so inland areas will likely drop below zero.

A clipper will cross northern WI on Monday, but this will
largely remain north of our area. One more clipper on its heels
will also track across northern WI Monday night. This one will
have higher precip amounts, and the southern fringe of it may
sweep across southern WI Monday night.

The next clipper will track across central WI Tuesday night and
exit Wednesday. Accumulating snow is probable but the track is
still very uncertain. One more low on the horizon could bring a
swath of snow through southern WI or southern IL (or anywhere in
between) Thursday afternoon or night.

Cronce

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 310 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions will persist through mid afternoon until shortly
after the snow arrives. The light snow that is currently
ongoing across southwest WI and central WI will track through srn
WI late this afternoon and exit late this evening. Expect
visibility down to 2 miles at times, especially north of I-94.
Ceilings will come down to around 1500 ft during the snow, and
then areas may drop to IFR as the snow tapers off during the
evening.

Amounts up to a half inch are possible toward central WI, with
trace amounts near the IL border. A brief period of light
freezing drizzle is possible on the tail end of the precip
between 8 and midnight as we lose ice crystal aloft as drier
air works in. Expect MVFR during the overnight hours with areas
of clearing possible toward east central WI toward morning.

Ceiling heights will be largely VFR during the daytime hours
Saturday. Expect accumulating (light) snow to spread into
southern WI after 00Z Sunday.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 310 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A low pressure trough will cross Lake Michigan this evening and
winds will veer to the west and become breezy Saturday morning
as high pressure builds in from the west. Breezy northerly
winds are then expected Sunday as low pressure crosses IL and
the strengthening high pressure reaches Minnesota. Gusts are
expected to remain below gales.

Monday night will feature gusty southwest winds with a few gale
force gusts possible as low pressure crosses Lake Superior. A
low crossing central WI Tuesday night will bring another round
of gusty winds and this system may also bring a few gale force
gusts.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until
     midnight Saturday.

&&

$$

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