684
FXUS63 KMKX 241205 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
605 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds, fog and drizzle/light rain will spread into
  southern Wisconsin today and linger into Tuesday. Periods of
  dense fog are possible.

- Much colder and blustery for Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day.

- Active pattern with the potential for accumulating snow by
  next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 605 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

An area of low clouds and fog over eastern Iowa will spread
into south central Wisconsin this morning. This is associated
with an area of low level moisture- this was present over
Missouri Saturday night, it advected into Iowa last night, and
it will keep advecting into southern WI today. Timing is
uncertain, but it could arrive in Madison as early as 9 or 10
am. The fog is dense in Iowa early this morning, but the
expectation is that it would disperse a bit with daylight and
have visibility of 1 to 2 miles. The visibility and cloud base
height should remain slightly higher along the lakeshore due to
better mixing.

Cronce

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 352 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today through Tuesday:

A closed upper low over the Plains will make its way across
Nebraska today and Missouri tonight while weakening into an open
shortwave trough. Mid level vorticity advection and upper
divergence with the entrance region of an upper jet will produce
a broad area of lift over Iowa, Illinois and southern Wisconsin
this afternoon. The steadier rain this afternoon and tonight will
be focused along the 700-600mb frontogenesis which will be
mainly over central WI. For most of southern WI, expect areas of
drizzle with low clouds are are expected to develop by midday.
Light fog is possible as well due to increasing dewpoints.

On Tuesday, surface low pressure strengthening over central WI
will help keep the low level moisture in place over southern WI.
Drizzle or light rain will continue to be possible. Clouds will
keep temperatures on the lower end of guidance Monday and
Tuesday, with highs around 50.

Cronce

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 352 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Tuesday night through Sunday:

As low pressure occludes and ejects eastward into the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan, expect a wave of rain along an occluded
front propagating west to east across southern Wisconsin (70-90%
chance). After the front propagates through, northwesterly winds
will begin to gust between 25 and 35 mph and scattered rain/snow
mix showers will develop (20-50% chance, highest in central
Wisconsin). Low pressure will continue to deepen across eastern
Ontario through Wednesday, keeping southern Wisconsin within the
northwesterly flow and wrap-around precipitation regime through
Wednesday evening. Wrap-around precipitation through Wednesday is
expected to be snowfall with temperatures remaining near freezing
through the afternoon hours, with NBM PoPs of 20-50% reasonable at
this point with substantial model agreement on the evolution of
the low but coverage of snow showers lower due to the more diffuse
nature of wrap-around precipitation. GFS soundings indicate some
potential for dry air intrusion in the upper levels near the
dendritic growth zone, which may result in some periods of
freezing drizzle, but confidence in this outcome remains low at
this time, so continued with a straight rain-to-snow solution.

Any lingering precipitation will taper off from west to east
overnight Wednesday, but northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph
will continue throughout the overnight hours and into Thursday
(Thanksgiving Day). This will bring in cooler than average
temperatures under high pressure from the Canadian Prairies
Thursday (Thanksgiving) and Friday, with highs in the low 30s and
lows in the teens.

Active weather returns into the weekend, with a developing low
pressure system in the lee of the Colorado/New Mexico Rockies. A
warm front and overrunning precipitation will begin to nudge
northward into southern Wisconsin late Friday night into Saturday
morning (20-40% chance precipitation), with precipitation becoming
more widespread into Saturday and Saturday night (40-60% chance)
as the low deepens and progresses eastward into the Mississippi
Valley. Confidence in exact strength and duration of this
system remains low, as the heavier/longer duration precipitation
solutions are dependent on the system phasing with a shortwave
from the Canadian Rockies propagating southeastward during the
development phase of the Colorado Rockies low. The GFS is the
most aggressive with duration and precipitation, continuing snow
and rain through Sunday, while the Euro and Canadian lean
toward a dry solution by Sunday. Due to uncertainty, kept NBM
PoPs through the weekend. Regardless, high temperatures across
southern Wisconsin throughout the weekend are expected to be in
the low 30s, so the majority of precipitation would fall as
snow.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 605 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

An area of low clouds and fog over eastern Iowa will spread
into south central Wisconsin this morning. Cloud bases should be
LIFR, in the 200 to 500 ft range. Timing is uncertain, but it
could arrive in Madison as early as 9 or 10 am. The fog is dense
in Iowa early this morning, but the expectation is that it
would disperse a bit with daylight and have visibility of 1 to 2
miles. The visibility and cloud base height should remain
slightly higher along the lakeshore due to better mixing.

Cronce

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 352 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Southerly winds will increase today as low pressure around 29.7
inches develops in the Northern Plains. The low will strengthen
to 29.6 inches as it tracks across Minnesota on Tuesday. The
associated cold front will surge across southern Lake Michigan
Tuesday night and expand into northern Lake Michigan Wednesday as
the low further deepens to 29.3 inches over eastern Lake
Superior. The strong low will generally maintain its strength as
it crosses Ontario Wednesday night and Quebec on Thursday.

Westerly gales will likely develop over southern Lake Michigan
early Wednesday morning and expand into the north half several
hours later. The westerly gales will become northwesterly
Wednesday night and persist into Thursday afternoon before
diminishing. A Gale Watch is in effect for all of Lake Michigan
and also the nearshore areas of southeast Wisconsin.

Winds will diminish as high pressure of 30.5 inches crosses the
midwest on Friday. Look for southerly winds to develop Sunday as
low pressure develops over the western half of the country.

Cronce

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Watch...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
     LMZ868...9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM Friday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...3 AM Wednesday to 9
     PM Thursday.

     Gale Watch...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...3 AM Wednesday to 6
     PM Thursday.

&&

$$

Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee
www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee