Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
398 FXUS63 KMKX 011546 AAA AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 946 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow this afternoon and evening, especially along and south of I-94. - Much colder Wednesday night through Thursday night. - Several chances for light snow through mid to late week, though with low confidence on details. && .UPDATE... Issued 946 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Snow is on track to arrive southwest to northeast late this afternoon into the evening. No significant changes to the light totals are expected based on 12Z guidance that has come in so far. Overall, the forecast looks on track through the remainder of the day. DDV && .SHORT TERM... Issued 225 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Today through Tuesday: Several hours of mostly clear skies and light winds allowed temperatures to drop sharply in many locations early this morning, with a few spots dropping to or below zero. High clouds are beginning to move in from the south, and expect temperatures to even out and perhaps rise a few degrees through sunrise in response to the increased cloud cover. A shortwave moving across the lower Missouri Valley will bring a period of light snow to the area starting this afternoon and continuing into this evening. Amounts will range from 1-2 inches near the Illinois state line to around an inch across the I-94 corridor, to just a trace toward central Wisconsin. Snow is expected to end by mid evening. Quiet conditions are expected tonight, with lows falling into the single digits to around 10 above. If clouds clear faster than expected, temperatures could end up colder than forecast. Quiet weather is expected on Tuesday, with highs in the mid 20s. Boxell && .LONG TERM... Issued 225 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Tuesday night through Sunday: The next system of note will move through the area later Wednesday into Thursday, with a cold front bringing much colder temperatures to the area Wednesday night, when lows are expected to fall below zero in most locations. A steady northwest breeze will result in wind chills around -15. Some light snow is also possible with the frontal passage, though the chance for meaningful accumulation is low at this time. Highs Thursday are only expected to make it into the low teens, with lows Thursday night around or below zero. Extended guidance is suggesting a fairly active period of northwest flow over the region into and through the weekend, though with high uncertainty with any particular shortwave passage. Overall, this pattern favors at or below average temperatures, with several chances for additional light snow. Boxell && .AVIATION... Issued 946 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Visibilities and ceilings have improved most places this morning, with mainly mid and high level clouds expected the rest of the morning. Ceilings will then rapidly go back down west to east this afternoon as a shortwave approaches. Light snow is still expected ahead of the wave this afternoon and evening, moving in west to east across southern Wisconsin from roughly 19Z to 23Z. The snow will wind down between 03Z and 06Z, with dry weather expected the rest of the night into Tuesday. Snow totals of around an inch are possible through the I-94 corridor, with lesser amounts toward the north and totals pushing 2 inches towards the WI/IL border. The snow will likely be a drier snow given temps in the low to mid 20s, with snow to liquid ratios 15-18 to 1. Winds should remain on the light side through during the snow event. Ceilings are expected to drop below 1 kft during the snow, with visibilities in the 1 to 3 mile range. Visibilites will likely improve for overnight and Tuesday, with MVFR ceilings possibly hanging around much of the day. DDV && .MARINE... Issued 225 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Light and variable winds this morning will turn southerly by this afternoon as high pressure moves into the Northeast. Light west to southwest winds are expected late tonight and Tuesday as another area of high pressure moves through the Ohio Valley. A strong cold front will move across the lake Wednesday and Wednesday night. Gusty winds are expected, though for now, they are expected to remain just below gale force. Very cold air with this system will result in a risk for freezing spray Wednesday and Thursday. Boxell && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee