Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
329 FXUS63 KMKX 231451 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 851 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through Monday. - 70 to 80 percent chance of rain Monday night, with additional waves of precipitation through Tuesday night (40 to 60 percent chance). - Below normal temperatures move in Wednesday and continue into at least the end of the week. - Snow is possible Friday evening into Sunday across all of southern Wisconsin. && .UPDATE... Issued 851 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Quiet weather is expected today. A mid level cloud deck will gradually lift north while also eroding from the south, with sunny conditions expected for all but central Wisconsin by mid day. Highs will range from the low to mid 50s south to upper 40s to around 50 north. Boxell && .SHORT TERM... Issued 336 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Today through Monday night: Mostly sunny skies and light winds under high pressure today, allowing temperatures to rise into the low 50s. Overnight, warm air advection will kick in, bringing potential for very low clouds and localized fog development by the early morning hours Monday. Overcast skies and southerly winds will continue throughout Monday, with a few rain showers developing along a developing warm front Monday afternoon (20 to 30 percent chance). Showers will fill in and become widespread overnight Monday (70 to 80 percent chance) as low pressure propagates eastward through the Middle Mississippi Valley and exits to the east. With temperatures remaining in the low 40s, expecting all precipitation to remain rain. Precipitation will briefly taper off into early Tuesday morning. MH && .LONG TERM... Issued 336 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tuesday through Saturday: A mid level shortwave trough crossing the Northern Plains will take on a negative tilt as it gets into MN Tue afternoon. The resultant surface low will deepen over northern or central WI during this time. The models and their ensembles have come into much better agreement on the strength and timing of this system than previous forecast. While the cluster analysis shows a stronger consensus, the ENS (ECMWF Ensemble) has the largest variety of solutions at this time. Tuesday high temps will continue to be well above normal, in the mid 50s with fairly light southerly winds. Some lingering light rain is possible in the morning, but the majority of the day should be dry. Gusty west to northwest winds developing on the back side of the low due to the rapid cyclogenesis will rush through southern WI Wednesday evening behind the surface cold front. This should occur between 6 pm and midnight, but the exact timing is still uncertain. While the main precip area will be focused over MN and northern WI, a few showers are possible in southern WI along this front. The forecast temperature profile still looks warm enough for the precip type to be rain. Expect gusty westerly winds on Wednesday, and not much recovery to temperatures given the strong cold air advection. Highs Wednesday will be below normal, in the mid to upper 30s. With the steep low level lapse rates and some low level moisture, expect stratocumulus clouds. There may be flurries with these as well. Thanksgiving Day is going to be chilly with highs around 31 and brisk northwest winds. The morning should have more clouds than the afternoon. The low will finally move out of southern WI Thursday evening, so expect a quick transition to clear skies, light winds and tanking temperatures. Lows Thu nt will be in the teens. The next system on the horizon is expected to arrive Friday night. This could bring a swath of accumulating snow to southern Wisconsin through Saturday morning. The snow may even linger through Sunday, but there are large differences between the model solutions that far out. Cronce && .AVIATION... Issued 851 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 VFR conditions are expected through at least this evening, with just mid level clouds impacting the region. Winds will weaken through mid day, before turning southwesterly by late afternoon and increasingly slightly. Increased moisture will lead to low clouds and potentially some fog very late tonight into the morning hours on Monday. These low clouds will move in from the south, building north with time on Monday morning. Though confidence is high that IFR conditions will develop across the region on Monday, the exact timing is still uncertain. Boxell && .MARINE... Issued 336 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Northwesterly gusts between 25 and 30 kt will continue across the open waters as gusts to 20 kt continue in the nearshore regions through the early morning hours, diminishing after sunrise as high pressure builds into the region. Expect southerly winds to increase Monday as low pressure develops in the Middle Mississippi Valley. Southerly winds will continue into Tuesday as low pressure deepens over Minnesota. Tuesday night, a cold front from this low will push eastward across the Lake as the low continues to deepen, bringing westerly gales by Wednesday morning. Westerly gales will become northwesterly Wednesday night, continuing into Thursday morning before diminishing as low pressure finally lifts northward into northern Quebec. MH && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.x.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee