321
FXUS63 KMKX 230319 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
919 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will remain several degrees above normal through
  Monday.

- 70 to 80 percent chance of rain Monday night, lingering into
  Tuesday.

- Below normal temperatures move in Wednesday and continue into
  at least the end of the week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 919 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Winds will continue to gradually shift to the northwest
overnight, as the cold front exits to the east. Mostly clear
skies should prevail overnight, with lows in the upper 20s to
lower 30s.

High pressure passing to the south of the region Sunday should
bring dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. West winds are
generally expected Sunday, with highs in the upper 40s to lower
50s.

The high should shift east Sunday night, with light southwest to
south winds developing and some warm air advection occurring.
Lows should remain in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 149 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Tonight through Sunday night:

Mid level clouds are moving across the region this afternoon,
ahead of a cold front. These clouds have produced a few spits of
rain and snow, and while another brief period of sprinkles or
drizzle will be possible with the actual front later this
afternoon, no meaningful precipitation is expected. Skies will
clear this evening as drier air builds into the region.

Sunday looks to be a fairly pleasant day. Temperatures will
start the day in the low 30s, before warming into the upper 40s
to near 50. Light northwest winds are expected early, eventually
turning southwesterly by late afternoon and evening.

Boxell

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 149 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Monday through Saturday:

An upper level disturbance will move out of the Central Plains
Sunday night and Monday, lifting into the Great Lakes by
Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of this feature will bring
light rain showers to the region Monday afternoon through Monday
night. There`s a good chance (>75%) for rain during this
timeframe, though overall amounts will remain quite light.

Behind this initial wave, another, stronger shortwave will push
eastward over the Northern Plains on Tuesday, with cyclogenesis
taking place over northern Wisconsin Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The surface low is expected to deepen over Lake Superior Tuesday
night and Wednesday, with an associated cold front surging
across the region early Wednesday. After reaching the 50s on
Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will remain in the 30s
Wednesday. Daytime highs on Wednesday look to be met in the
morning hours, with falling temperatures probable during the
afternoon.

Despite its strength, not a lot of precipitation is expected
with this front. Some wrap-around flurries or snow showers will
be possible Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day, but no accumulation
is expected at this time.

Colder and dry conditions are expected through at least Friday,
before the pattern becomes active again heading into next
weekend. Lots of uncertainty and a wide range of outcomes at
this distance, but it will be a timeframe to keep an eye on over
the coming week.

Boxell

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 919 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Winds will continue to gradually shift to the northwest
overnight, as the cold front exits to the east. Despite
weakening winds overnight, winds at 2000 feet AGL should remain
light enough to preclude any mention of low level wind shear.
Mostly clear skies should prevail overnight.

High pressure passing to the south of the region Sunday should
bring dry conditions with mostly sunny skies. West winds are
generally expected. The high should shift east Sunday night,
with light southwest to south winds developing.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 919 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Winds will shift northwest overnight with the passage of low
pressure around 29.6 inches and a cold front. Gusts up to 30
knots are expected over the open waters, with a few gusts to 25
knots over the nearshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect for the nearshore waters through early Sunday morning.

High pressure around 30.1 inches briefly returns Sunday, with
northwest to west winds easing. Modest southerly winds will
develop Monday, as low pressure around 28.7 inches moves into
the Upper Mississippi River Valley.

The low will strengthen over Minnesota and Wisconsin on
Tuesday, and cross Lake Superior as a 29.4 inch low early
Wednesday morning. Timing and strength of this low remains
uncertain, but a period of gale force gusts is looking likely
over Lake Michigan Wednesday into Thursday. In addition, winds
will approach Small Craft Advisory levels Tuesday into at least
Friday across the nearshore waters.

Boxell/Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 AM
     Sunday.

&&

$$

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