897
FXUS62 KMLB 142019
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
319 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

- Patchy late night/early morning fog that could become locally
  dense is possible through the weekend.

- A gradual warming trend continue through the weekend and into
  next week, bringing temperatures slightly above normal by mid
  next week or so.

- Other than some very slow chances for onshore moving showers,
  rain remains out of the forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...The weak frontal boundary that pushed
through today washes out, as the center of high pressure over the
eastern US is driven south towards Florida by a low pressure
system well to our north. This will reinforce dry and quiet
weather, but continue the potential for late night/early morning
fog. Conditions still aren`t the most favorable between the very
dry air and a gentle overnight breeze, but once again model
soundings show a decent surface inversion setting up, and winds
could go light up north, allowing for the development of patchy
fog which could become locally dense, reducing visibility to less
than a mile at times. Highest chances (such as they are at around
10-20%) are north of the I-4 corridor. As for the rest of the
forecast, afternoon highs have returned to near normal in the
M-U70s, and overnight lows are almost there but remain a few
degrees below normal in the L-M50s for most, except the southern
coastal corridor which are near normal in the L60s. Northeast
winds 5-10 mph this afternoon settle to northerly around 5 mph
overnight.

The Weekend...Dry and quiet conditions continue. The surface high
is shunted south, bringing the ridge ridge axis across Central
Florida Saturday, then the high slides offshore Sunday in response
to the passing low pressure system. This will take local winds
for a bit of a ride, causing them to shift from northerly Saturday
morning to westerly by Sunday morning. Can`t completely rule out
a light onshore moving shower along the southern coast Saturday,
but chances are very low (10% or less). Once flow becomes offshore
Sunday rain chances are effectively zero. The only weather of
note will be the continued potential for late night/early morning
fog. Conditions still don`t appear favorable for widespread fog,
but patchy fog that could become locally dense reducing visibility
to less than a mile is possible. While Saturday morning`s highest
fog potential is generally limited to north of I-4, chances
expand southward Sunday across much of the interior as the ridge
axis settles across the area and dew points increase a bit. Near
normal daytime temperatures with highs in the U70s-L80s, but
overnight lows will remain on the cooler side for most in the
L-M50s, up to the L50s-60 along the coastal corridor (which
actually shave off a degree or two thanks to offshore flow).

Next Week...Finally looking like we have some agreement the weak
front associated with the passing low pressure system will sag
into at least parts of Central Florida, but whether it arrives
Monday or Tuesday and how far south it gets are still questions
that need answering. Either way, chances for rainfall with the
front don`t look good as PWATs only increase to 1.2" at most, just
above the climatological daily mean/median, and model soundings
show a well capped environment. Chances for rain are still minimal
Tuesday and Wednesday but not zero (10% or less) as the front
washes out and weak high pressure builds over the area, shifting
flow more onshore and increasing low level moisture, which could
support some onshore moving showers. A gradual warm up will
continue, resulting in afternoon temperatures a bit above normal
with highs back in the L80s or so, and near normal lows in the
U60s-L60s earlier in the week creeping to the L-U60s later in the
week. Confidence quiet and mostly dry conditions will continue
Thursday is pretty high, but beyond that forecast confidence
drops considerably due to uncertainty in the evolution of the next
big weather system. A sharp trough swinging digging down to the
south central US is forecast to spin up a surface low pressure
system and pull it northeastward cross the eastern US late week
and into the weekend, but when and if the associated front makes
it to Florida sometime between Friday and Sunday is up in the air.
However, given the source area of the low (i.e. not polar/arctic)
don`t expect a wicked cool down like we just had at this time. In
fact for now, NBM continues to call for warmer then normal but
otherwise quiet conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. The center of high
pressure over the the eastern US shifts south over Florida
Saturday, then pushes offshore Sunday ahead of an approaching
front, which is forecast to sag into portions of Central Florida
and the local Atlantic waters early next week. Weak high pressure
builds over the area midweek as the front washes out.

NE winds at 5-15 kts today will veer through most of the compass
Saturday, from NE-ENE at 5-10 kts in the morning to SSE-E at 5-10
kts in the evening, and SSE-SW at 5-15 kts late overnight. Winds
Sunday settle to WSW-SW at generally 5-15 kts, pushing to 15-20
kts offshore of the Daytona and Space Coasts. Winds become shifty
at 10 kts or less again Monday and Tuesday as the weak front drops
into Central Florida and the local Atlantic waters. Seas generally
1-3 ft, up to 2-4 ft this evening and Sunday. Some light, shallow
marine sprinkles are possible across the Treasure Coast and
portions of the Brevard waters today and Saturday, and again on
Tuesday and Wednesday, but heavy rain and lightning storms are
currently not forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1234 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Light northerly winds become variable at times as high pressure
settles across central Florida. Peak winds are forecast around 10
kts or less along the coast this afternoon. There is low confidence
for fog development near LEE/DAB late tonight and into early
Saturday morning, and have kept mention out of the TAF for now.
Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  77  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  79  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  78  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  60  79  58  80 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  53  79  54  78 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  55  79  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  57  79  57  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  59  79  57  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Law