312
FXUS62 KMLB 172306
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
706 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the
  weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged.

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions linger across the Atlantic
  waters this evening, especially in the Gulf Stream, with only
  minor improvement expected over the weekend.

- Mostly rain-free conditions over the next week, with only
  limited opportunities for coastal showers this weekend, and
  maybe a few showers on a weak front early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Dry air continues to air filter in from
the north as the center of surface high pressure slides south from
the eastern Ohio River Valley towards the Carolina coast. While
GOES imagery show PWATs have dropped to 1.1" or less (near or
below the climatological 10th percentile), and are forecast to
further drop to 0.90" or less tonight, the 10Z XMR sounding and
RAP analysis, not to mention healthy cu-field, show there`s still
a healthy amount of low-level moisture beneath a subsidence
inversion around 850mb in the onshore flow. Can`t completely rule
out a low-topped shower moving onshore, but not enough confidence
for more than a silent 10% chance in the forecast. Easterly winds
pick up to 10-15 mph this afternoon, then settle to around 5 mph
overnight. Near normal afternoon highs in the L-M 80s, with
overnight lows in the 60s, maybe even U50s in the usually cooler
northern spots, a few degrees below normal.

Saturday-Sunday...A deepening upper-level trough moving into the
Central US consolidates a few disjointed mid-level lows and
troughs into a sharp mid-level trough, pushing into the eastern US
Sunday, then departing the area Monday as it sweeps eastward.
This will push ridging over the eastern US offshore, ushering the
surface high pressure over the Carolinas southeast into the
western Atlantic ahead of an approaching cold front. Locally, gentle
surface winds from veer from easterly Saturday to southerly
Sunday, and we`ll see a bit more low-level moisture returning
through the weekend, bringing rain chances closer to mentionable
values. However, capping from subsidence aloft until the ridge
moves off keeps overall PWATs less than 0.90" Saturday and 1.00"
Sunday. For now will continue the silent 10% rain chances for
pretty much all the coast and Atlantic waters Saturday as onshore
flow continues, shifting to the southern counties and waters
Sunday as flow becomes southerly. Moisture recovery ahead of the
front will be limited, and a mostly dry passage is expected. There
is some uncertainty how far south the trough will dig, with both
12Z ECM and GFS coming in much less aggressive than previous
guidance, opting for the trough to fall short of Florida, other
than some shortwave energy. This is decreasing confidence whether
the front will make it into South Florida before stalling, or end
up in Central Florida, as well as if, where, and when we might
get a few showers, and low (around 20%) PoPs late Sunday into
Monday have been bouncing around a bit as a result. Not much
change in temperatures Saturday, but southerly flow Sunday brings
a quick warm up with afternoon highs in the M-U80s.

Though the surf and weather may look more inviting than the past
two weekends, long-period swell will maintain a high risk of rip
currents through at least Sunday. Residents and visitors are
strongly discouraged from entering the ocean!

Next Week...Low rain chances could continue into Monday and maybe
Tuesday as the front stalls across Central or South Florida,
depending how deep the trough ends up making it. Whatever rain
chances we have the first half of next week will be short lived as
a reinforcing dry cold front quickly follows and reaches the area
by midweek, resuming dry conditions the latter part of the work
week. To drive home how weak the first front is forecast,
afternoon highs look to remain above normal in the M-U80s for all
but maybe Coastal Volusia Monday and Tuesday, before the
reinforcing front brings temperatures back down to around normal
by Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

High pressure pushing offshore the Carolinas and into the western
Atlantic is followed by a weak, mostly dry front reaching the
local Atlantic waters late Sunday into Monday. The front is
forecast to stall over Central or South Florida Monday, before a
reinforcing dry cool front pushes through mid-week.

Northeasterly winds around 15 kts this afternoon ease to 5-15 kts
while veering easterly Saturday and south to southeasterly Sunday
ahead of the front. Lower than normal confidence in the wind
direction forecast Monday and Tuesday due to uncertainty in the
front`s position, but generally expected to be 10 kts or less.
Seas 5-7 ft this afternoon subside to 4-6 ft Saturday and Sunday,
then 3-5 ft early next week. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the Treasure Coast and Offshore Brevard Atlantic waters
through 8 PM for seas in the Gulf Stream, and small craft should
continue to exercise caution for seas up to 6 ft in the Gulf
Stream through the rest of the night and weekend. A few low-topped
showers can`t be ruled out, and there is a low (around 20%) chance
for showers with the front, but lightning storms are not expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. While mostly dry conditions
are forecast through tonight and through Saturday (rain chances
less than 20 percent), isolated onshore moving showers in the E/NE
flow can not be ruled out. So, Have kept all mention of showers
out of the TAF at this time, and will amend as necessary. Light
E/NE winds of 4-7KT tonight will increase to 5-10 KT by mid
morning Saturday and slowly become E/ESE through Saturday
afternoon. Winds will once again decrease to 4-7 KT around sundown
Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  80  64  85 /  10  10  10  10
MCO  63  82  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
MLB  67  81  68  85 /  10  10  10  10
VRB  67  81  67  85 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  62  83  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
SFB  62  82  64  87 /  10  10  10  10
ORL  63  83  65  87 /  10  10  10  10
FPR  67  81  66  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-572-
     575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson