785
FXUS62 KMLB 051900
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

- Scattered to numerous fast-moving showers off the Atlantic will
  support locally heavy rainfall where banding features can
  develop. Localized flooding will be a concern through Monday.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue this
  upcoming week, including minor coastal flooding, life-
  threatening rip currents, and breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet with
  minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high
  tide.

- Breezy and gusty onshore winds will continue through much of
  this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Rest of Today-Monday...High pressure over the Northeast will begin
to drift slowly offshore and into the Atlantic through Monday, as a
trough moves through the upper Midwest. Meanwhile, a pool of
moisture lingers along a boundary over south Florida and the
Straits. Scattered, quick-moving showers continue area-wide this
afternoon, with a few embedded lightning strikes observed in showers
that have been able to overcome a bit of dry air in the mid-levels
and modest lapse rates. Expect this activity to continue through the
remainder of the day, with a tight pressure gradient producing
breezy and gusty winds. Easterly flow 15-20 mph, with gusts to 25
mph, is highest along the coast, where winds are closer to 20-25 mph
and gusts to 30 mph, especially in showers. Rainfall accumulations
of 1-1.5", with locally higher amounts, are possible through this
evening in places that see multiple rounds of heavier showers. PoPs
50-60% today. However, the heavy rainfall threat looks to increase
late tonight and into Monday.

PWATs near 2" are forecast to increase to a soupy 2-2.3" Monday.
CAMs (namely the HRRR) have been consistent through the day today
that high coverage of showers will begin at the coast early in the
morning (near sunrise), then spread inland through the late morning
hours. With such high PWATs, it won`t take much for locally heavy
rainfall. However, models suggest coastal convergence will help to
maximize the heavy rainfall there there, especially from near
Melbourne southward. QPF forecast amounts have increased through the
day, with 1-3" possible for coastal counties and 1-2" for the
interior. A few higher totals near 4-5" cannot be ruled out. A Flood
Watch remains in effect for all of the coastal Counties into Monday
evening. PoPs 60-70% will begin in the morning, but linger through
the day, with multiple rounds of showers. T A few lightning strikes
will remain possible.

Breezy onshore winds will continue through Monday, with little
change from Sunday afternoon. Coastal and marine concerns persist,
with a High Surf Advisory, Coastal Flood Advisory, and a High Risk
for rip currents in effect. High coverage of showers and cloud cover
will keep highs Monday afternoon in the lower to mid-80s. Overnight
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Tuesday-Thursday...Mid-level ridging over the Mid-Atlantic is nudged
southward mid-week by a trough digging through the northern US. This
will usher the plume of deep moisture south of the local area. PWATs
look to fall below 2" by Tuesday afternoon, possibly as low as near
1.5" at times through mid-week. PoPs decrease accordingly,
especially Wednesday (20-40%), though southern portions of the area,
closest to the lingering moisture, will hold PoPs near 60% Tuesday
and Thursday. Dry air aloft will limit overall lightning
development, but a few storms cannot be ruled out. Breezy conditions
look to continue, as the pressure gradient remains tight. Onshore
winds 15-20 mph in the afternoons, highest along the coast, with
gusts to 20-25 mph. Lower coverage of showers and cloud cover will
allow for highs to increase into the upper 80s over the interior by
Wednesday, while onshore flow keeps lows in the 70s.

Friday-Next Weekend...Ridging aloft dissipates by late week, with
global models in good agreement that a stout trough will move
through the Southeast. Rain chances are forecast to remain near to
below normal, as northeast winds on the western side of a possible
low over the Atlantic keep PWATs limited. Near to slightly below
normal highs in the lower to mid-80s will help give a taste of fall,
but it will be a Florida fall, as low level moisture from onshore
flow keeps dew points near 70. Little relief from coastal concerns,
as breezy, though lighter than earlier in the week, onshore winds
continue and high astronomical tides linger through the weekend.
While breaking waves are expected to diminish, rip currents and
coastal flooding will remain concerns.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast to continue for at
least portions of the local Atlantic waters through Wednesday, as
seas continue to slowly subside. Until then, seas up to 10 ft
today look to linger to up to 8 ft into Tuesday, especially over
the Gulf Stream. Gusty onshore flow up to 15-25 kts is also
forecast to continue through early this week. A slightly
diminishing pressure gradient late week will help to reduce winds
slightly. However, poor boating conditions are expected to linger
into late week, as east to northeast winds remain up to 15-20 kts
and seas remain up to 4-6 ft. High coverage of showers, with
embedded lightning storms, will continue through Monday, before
drier air helps to bring near to below normal rain chances mid to
late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 152 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Persistent onshore-moving showers will continue to push inland
through the afternoon and into early evening. Latest model trends
have backed off a tad bit with the heavy downpours developing
across the far interior into the afternoon (have shifted it
across west Florida). However, have maintained TEMPOs at LEE
(19Z/22Z). Otherwise, rounds of light to moderate showers passing
in the vicinity of the terminals are forecast to persist through
the TAF period and will monitor for amendments as needed. Models
continue to indicate the potential for bands of heavy downpours
developing late tonight and into early Monday morning,
particularly across the interior (early morning) and along the
Treasure Coast (mid/late morning). Have included TEMPOs for -SHRA for
TIX and MLB from 12/14Z, and VRB-SUA from 10/12Z. Generally VFR
conditions through the TAF period, but brief MVFR conditions in
showers.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  83  74  84 /  50  70  50  40
MCO  75  86  75  86 /  30  70  30  50
MLB  77  84  77  84 /  60  70  60  50
VRB  75  86  76  85 /  60  70  60  50
LEE  74  85  74  86 /  20  60  20  40
SFB  75  84  75  86 /  40  70  40  50
ORL  75  85  75  86 /  30  70  30  50
FPR  75  86  75  85 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Watson