784
FXUS62 KMLB 081832
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
132 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 132 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

- Patchy fog will be possible across much of east central Florida
  late tonight into early Sunday.

- Scattered storms are forecast north of Okeechobee and the
  Treasure Coast Sunday afternoon and evening. Strong wind gusts
  and small hail will be the primary threats.

- Below normal temperatures with wind chill values in the upper
  20s to mid 30s are forecast across east central Florida early
  next week behind a strong cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Current-Tonight... Dry so far this afternoon with temperatures
climbing into the low to mid 80s. While most areas will stay dry
through the remainder of the day, a low chance (10-20%) for a
shower still exists near and west of the Orlando Metro. Overnight,
conditions remain favorable for patchy fog development across
much of east central Florida with models particularly showing
interest across the north interior. Low temperatures will be mild
in the mid to upper 60s.

Sunday... A cold front passes the Florida Panhandle and the Florida
Big Bend on Sunday, approaching central Florida into Sunday night. A
surface ridge axis extending south of the area is nudged eastward,
and light southwest flow holds in place locally. A column of low
level moisture is present within most model soundings while dry air
persists above 700mb. Low level moisture combined with surface
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s should support scattered
showers and storms across portions of east central Florida. CAMs
have keyed in on a cluster of east-northeast moving showers and
storms mostly focused north of Okeechobee and the the Treasure Coast
counties. Here, SPC has outlined a Marginal Risk for severe storms.
DCAPE values approaching 800-1,000 J/kg and linear southwest shear
profiles suggest strong straight line winds as the primary storm
hazard. RAP analysis further suggests 500mb temps falling to -10C or
less, and a small hail threat will also be present. The greatest
support for strong storm development may be realized late in the
afternoon and into the evening as activity originally initializing
near or west of the Orlando metro pushes toward the coast and
interacts with a weak east coast sea breeze. Models suggest activity
diminishing along the coast around 10pm while a few light showers or
sprinkles cannot be ruled out along the frontal passage later in the
night.

Monday-Tuesday... Some 50s begin to arrive near, north, and west of
I-4 Monday morning as northerly winds begin to advect cold
continental airmass behind the front. A temperature gradient will
become apparent Monday afternoon as cool air continues to filter
southward. Monday highs spread the mid 60s across the far north with
areas across the south and near Okeechobee holding in the low to mid
70s. Tuesday will be the coldest morning of the period with most of
the interior seeing lows in the mid to upper 30s. Northerly winds
around 10-15 mph will persist, pushing wind chill values into the
30s and nearing Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Only a gradual
warmup is forecast into Tuesday afternoon with highs holding in the
mid to upper 50s near and north of the Orlando Metro. Further south,
highs mostly spread the low 60s.

Wednesday-Friday... Winds diminish as high pressure builds into the
extended period. Dry conditions will hold in place with no
mentionable PoPs through late week. A warming trend will quickly get
underway with highs recovering to range the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Wednesday, and by Friday, temperatures more widely spread the mid to
upper 70s. Low temperatures remain chilly Wednesday morning with
values in the upper 30s north and west of I-4. Lows then mostly warm
into the 50s by Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 132 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

High pressure will maintain offshore flow through the weekend,
although a weak sea breeze could allow for a light wind shift along
the coast. Scattered offshore moving showers and storms are forecast
near and north of the Cape Sunday afternoon and into the evening as
a strong cold front approaches the local waters. Northerly winds
around 20-25 kts behind the front on Monday will further increase
to 25-30 kts Monday night. In response seas build 7-9 ft across
the Gulf Stream Monday, peaking 7-10 ft nearshore and 9-12 ft
offshore early Tuesday. High pressure builds mid week allowing
winds to slacken and seas to slowly subside, and favorable boating
conditions quickly return Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 132 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

Gradually increasing moisture in light southwesterly flow under weak
high pressure could support a few afternoon showers/storms and early
morning fog across portions of ECFL. Mainly VFR through the first
half of the night. Very low (20% or less) chances for showers and
maybe a thunderstorm today between 21Z-01Z on weak sea breezes still
not high enough for even VCSH/VCTS mention in the TAFs. Winds WSW 5-
10 kts shift ESE around 21Z at coastal terminals behind the ECSB,
with a collision near KMCO and area terminals after 23Z, then become
light SW overnight. Environment late tonight into early Sunday
morning is favorable for the development of fog between 08Z-13Z, but
there is still some uncertainty which terminals will be impacted and
how hard. HREF ensemble and LAMP guidance continue to call for MVFR
or better conditions at the inland terminals including KMCO, while
HRRR remains much more aggressive pushing LIFR conditions all the
way to KDAB-KTIX. Given the lack on consensus, kept most inland TAFs
at TEMPO IFR except KLEE now prevailing MVFR and TEMPO LIFR, and
coastal terminals VFR. Any fog that develops should burn off 14Z or
so. Some showers near the I-4 corridor are possible as early as 12Z
Sunday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase after 18Z
ahead of an approaching cold front. There is potential for strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms during this period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 132 PM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

A strong cold front is forecast to pass central Florida late Sunday
night. Increasing north winds around 10-15 mph behind the front will
advect a cold, dry airmass into east central Florida early next
week. Min RH values become sensitive on Monday, further falling
below critical thresholds near, north, and west of I-4 on Tuesday.
Winds diminish Wednesday and into to late week as high pressure
builds across the region, but RH values will remain sensitive.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  82  57  66 /  10  20  10   0
MCO  69  84  62  68 /  20  30  10   0
MLB  68  84  64  72 /  10  20  10   0
VRB  68  86  65  74 /  10  20  10   0
LEE  68  82  56  65 /  10  30  10   0
SFB  68  84  59  67 /  10  30  10   0
ORL  69  83  61  67 /  10  30  10   0
FPR  68  86  66  75 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley