872
FXUS62 KMLB 061902
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
302 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

- Scattered to numerous fast-moving showers off the Atlantic will
  continue a locally heavy rainfall threat through the afternoon,
  especially along the coast.

- Dangerous beach and marine conditions will continue this
  upcoming week, including minor coastal flooding, life-
  threatening rip currents, and breaking waves of 5 to 7 feet with
  minor to moderate beach erosion especially near times of high
  tide.

- Breezy and gusty onshore winds will continue through much of
  this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Locally heavy rainfall is ongoing this
afternoon, with high coverage of showers and storms across the
area. Convergence bands stretching to the east coast of Florida
from the Bahamas have been supported by tropical PWATs (2.26" on
the 10Z XMR sounding) and divergence aloft, with estimated
rainfall accumulations of 2-5" so far for portions of Brevard
County. CAMs struggle to capture the evolution of these bands.
However, recent initializations of the HRRR appear reasonable and
suggest this activity will continue through the afternoon hours,
drifting southward. Given that northern portions of the area have
been worked over and stratiform rain continues there, the locally
heavy rainfall threat due to thunderstorms seems to be
diminishing. But, that`s not to say they will dry out, with
additional, lighter accumulations still possible into tonight. The
Flood Watch remains in effect for coastal counties through 8 PM,
with the focus now shifting to the Treasure and southern Space
Coasts for additional heavy rainfall accumulations up to 3-5".

Activity is forecast to decrease into the evening hours. However,
onshore-moving showers will remain possible overnight, with PoPs
generally 30-50% (highest along the coast). Training bands could
continue to produce a few minor flooding concerns, but drier air
beginning to advect into the mid-levels will limit the overall
flooding rainfall threat. Winds will remain breezy overnight at
10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20-25 mph, mainly along the coast.
Overnight lows are expected to remain in the upper 70s along the
coast and mid-70s inland.

Tuesday-Thursday...High pressure off of the Northeast US coast
drifts farther into the Atlantic through mid-week, as a trough digs
eastward through the northern US. Locally, mid-level ridging is
nudged southward towards the Florida peninsula, where it will wash
out through the period, ahead of a surface cold front. Little change
to surface flow overall, as the pressure gradient maintains breezy
and gusty onshore flow between high pressure and the weak boundary
across the Straits of Florida. Winds 15-20 mph remain forecast,
highest along the coast, with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Easterly winds
slacken slightly Wednesday, when the pressure gradient is weakest,
though breezy winds with gusts up to 20 mph are expected.

The biggest change will be the end to the locally heavy rainfall
threat. Dry air air loft will be advected into the area,
particularly in the mid-levels, with PWATs falling to near to below
2". The driest day looks to be Wednesday, where PWATs across
northern portions of the forecast area fall to below 1.5". However,
due to the proximity to the weak boundary, southern areas (near Lake
Okeechobee) look to remain a bit wetter (nearer to 2"). So, PoPs are
forecast to fall to 20-50% across much of the area Tuesday, before
increasing slightly Thursday, as moisture builds back north. Across
the south, PoPs remain around 60%. Wednesday, PoPs are forecast
between 20-50% from north to south, as onshore flow and a layer of
moisture in the lower levels will continue the threat of at least a
few showers. The overall storm threat looks low (less than 20-40%
overall). Lower coverage of showers and storms will support high
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

Wave heights are forecast to diminish into late week. However, rough
surf and a High Risk of rip currents will continue at area beaches.
Brisk onshore flow and high astronomical tides will also continue
the threat for Coastal Flooding. Residents and visitors are
encouraged to monitor the forecast before heading to the beach. Just
because the weather may appear nice, it does not mean that the ocean
isn`t dangerous.

Friday-Sunday (previous)... A mid level trough is forecast to dig
across the southeast U.S. late week and into the weekend. An
associated cold front slides across the region, bringing the first
taste of fall. Temperatures are forecast a few degrees below normal
Friday and Saturday mostly in the low to mid 80s. By Sunday,
temperatures are forecast to more widely spread the low 80s. Low
temperatures gradually cool each day, reaching the 60s across much
of east central Florida by Sunday. Scattered to numerous showers and
a few storms are forecast on Friday as the boundary approaches the
area. Perhaps some lingering rain chances on Saturday depending on
the timing of the front. Otherwise, drier conditions build behind
the boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Small Craft Advisory conditions are forecast to continue for portions
of the local Atlantic waters through Tuesday night, as seas
continue to slowly subside. Seas up to 10 ft today in the Gulf
Stream look to diminish to 6 ft Wednesday. Gusty onshore flow up
to 15-25 kts will continue through tomorrow, before a slightly
diminishing pressure gradient mid-week will help to reduce winds
to 15-20 kts. While winds will be reduced, boating conditions will
remain poor. An approaching front late week is expected to once
again produce Small Craft Advisory conditions as winds increase
and seas build. High coverage of showers, with embedded lightning
storms, through today. Then, drier air helps to bring near to
below normal rain chances mid week. Chances will increase again
into the weekend, as the front approaches.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon Oct 6 2025

Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms continue to push
onshore and into the interior this afternoon. Have maintained VCSH
for much of TAF period, with VCTS mentioned from top of the TAF
period til 23Z. Have included tempo groups for MVFR SHRA and TSRA
impacts from 18-20Z as daytime heating increases and instability
and coverage of this activity this afternoon. Current models
indicate rain chances decrease over the interior this evening, but
linger along the coast as onshore flow remains. Thus, have
continued VCSH along the coast overnight, but allowing it to drop
off across the interior. Onshore-moving showers increase into
Tuesday morning, with guidance showing them moving into the
interior. Have added VCSH for all TAF sites starting at 15Z, with
VCTS starting at 17Z for interior sites. Rain chances will
decrease areawide into mid/late afternoon, so have taken all
mention of rain out for MCO starting at 22Z. East to northeast
winds 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25KT will continue this afternoon,
decreasing to around 10 KT across the interior tonight, except
along the coast where winds will remain elevated. Winds increase
Tuesday morning to 10-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT. VFR conditions
are forecast through the TAF period, with brief periods of MVFR in
and around SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  85  73  85 /  30  20  10  20
MCO  75  87  74  89 /  30  40  10  30
MLB  77  84  76  85 /  50  50  20  40
VRB  76  85  76  87 /  50  50  30  40
LEE  73  87  72  88 /  20  40  10  20
SFB  75  87  73  88 /  30  40  10  30
ORL  75  87  73  88 /  30  40  10  30
FPR  76  85  75  86 /  50  50  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-
     164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for FLZ141-154-
     159-164-347-447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ550-552-555-
     570-572-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Watson