689
FXUS62 KMLB 181121
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
621 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Patchy morning fog and a moderate risk of life-threatening rip
  currents are our notable hazards this week.

- Temperatures continue to nudge above normal as high pressure
  stays in control.

- Outdoor plans will be greeted with plenty of sunshine. Most
  locales will remain rain-free for at least the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

As expected, broad and flat upper-level ridging is making its
way eastward and is now centered over the Gulf. This feature is
bookended by an unusually deep trough over California and the
stout Rex Block over the Canadian Maritimes and Greenland. The
Rex Block is forecast to weaken as additional energy reinvigorates
the trough over the West, all but ensuring that H5 heights will
continue to build over the Southeast U.S. through the course of
the work week.

A rather classic split-flow jet configuration develops over
the Western and Central U.S. late this week with downstream
confluence over the Ohio Valley. As disturbances are dampened by
the mid-latitude confluent flow to our north, one should
anticipate continued quiet and warm conditions over Florida. A
weak feature passes through the Tennessee Valley on Saturday,
slightly decreasing heights over Florida late in the weekend.
However, ensemble means suggest the ridge will strengthen yet
again early next week. Overall confidence is high through early
next week, lifted by a relatively low spread in the 17/12Z
membership.

A weak front is dissipating over Central Florida tonight. It`s
easiest to analyze with the gradual dew point discontinuity over
the peninsula. High pressure over the Appalachians this morning will
push offshore by tonight, its axis stretching westward to Florida
for the latter portion of the week. Modest onshore breezes will
keep a modified mT air mass over much of the state for the
remainder of the week. Another weak front is expected to reach
Florida late Sunday into Monday. Once again, the front is forecast
to dissipate overhead as continental surface high pressure pushes
toward the Eastern Seaboard by Monday, thwarting any change in
air mass.

Since we remain relatively quiet and the holiday season
is approaching, let`s peek beyond the 7-day. The 17/12Z
ensembles show two distinct mid-latitude disturbances over the
U.S. for Thanksgiving week. The first signal passes through the
Eastern U.S. around Tuesday the 25th; this feature should be on a
weakening trend, with a majority of members showing little/no
impacts to east central Florida. The second signal approaches the
state sometime around Black Friday; there is a little better
potential for a clean frontal passage with this disturbance.
However, any sort of a cool down behind the Thanksgiving weekend
disturbance looks short-lived: additional Pacific energy is likely
to reach the U.S. West Coast as a ridge emanating from the Antilles
attempts to expand poleward - all consistent with the (expected)
MJO phase 7 analog.

Bottom line: any individual model runs showing a significant,
lasting cold air outbreak over Florida over the next couple of weeks
should be greeted with a dose of skepticism. Extended/weekly
guidance persistently suggests that cold risks will increase by mid-
December; this corresponds with a potential for both MJO phase 8 and
a weak and/or displaced polar vortex in the wake of a stratospheric
warming event.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Remainder of the Work Week...

A bit of lingering moisture from the old front may be just
enough to spark a few showers today through early Wednesday,
primarily along the Treasure Coast. These rain chances are 20% or
less, so most places will remain dry. Status quo weather is then
expected over the coming days as high pressure dominates.
Temperatures will remain above normal, particularly in the
afternoons, with many spots reaching the low/mid 80s.

Patchy fog is forecast each overnight and early morning
as winds remain light. There is a low risk for dense fog
development. However, this forecast is tricky as some modestly drier
air sneaks into the boundary layer late today through Wednesday -
near and north of Interstate 4. For this reason, have deviated
slightly lower than statistical guidance for dew points in the
afternoon hours.

Weekend - Next Week...

Winds attempt to turn offshore this weekend as a front approaches
from the north, ensuring continued warm 80s each afternoon (perhaps
upper 70s behind the sea breeze at the coast). Patchy morning fog
will remain possible, especially over rural locations. Guidance
pushes the front into Central Florida and dissipates it by
Monday, briefly turning winds northerly before switching back
onshore. Despite the front, statistical guidance keeps us rain-free
with negligible change in temperatures.

Aside from a low potential for some coastal showers today and again
during the middle of next week, the odds of receiving measurable
rain remain quite low through at least Thanksgiving Day. The
front arriving late next week may provide our next "best" chance
for rain - but there are a lot of questions to answer before we
can say that with any confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

High pressure over the Central Appalachians will drift offshore
of Cape Hatteras over the next 24 hours, allowing onshore breezes
enhanced nearshore by the daily sea breeze. The axis of this high
pressure system will extend westward to Florida later this week
before being displaced southward this weekend. Aside from a few
showers through Wednesday, no significant weather is forecast this
week, leading to favorable conditions for nearshore boating.

Nearshore seas 1-3 FT through Wednesday, lessening to 2 FT or less
on Thursday and Friday. Seas offshore will be slightly higher,
3-4 FT, through early Thursday. Afternoon breezes NE to E 5-10 KT,
subtly enhanced at the coast as the sea breeze develops. Winds
turn offshore less than 5 KT overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 615 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Weak high pressure will promote a loose pressure gradient over the
area today, continuing mostly dry conditions and light and variable
winds less than 6 knots. There will be a developing ENE sea breeze
that will increase the onshore winds 7-9 knots at coastal terminals
this afternoon. Isold Atlc SHRA may approach the coast later this
afternoon/evening but confidence/coverage too low to insert VC
term. Patchy fog VRB-SUA will will dissipate shortly after
sunrise. With high pressure ridge axis remaining in the
vicinity, a higher coverage of patchy late night/early morning
fog will be possible tonight/early Wed as indicated by the HRRR.
NBM probs for MVFR VSBYs are currently only around 20%, except
30-35% at fog-prone FPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Over the next couple of days, seasonably deep mixing (4+ KFT) should
tap into some drier air aloft over northern portions of east central
Florida. Away from the coast and along the I-4 corridor, RH minima
are forecast to range from 35-45% both afternoons today and
Wednesday. Afternoon breezes becoming NE less than 10 mph. Light to
calm winds and excellent RH recovery are forecast each night, so
smoke from any fires will have the potential to mix with patchy fog.

RH values are expected to remain above elevated or critical
thresholds beginning Thursday in all areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  79  59  80  58 /  10  10  10   0
MCO  82  60  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  62  80  63 /  10   0  10   0
VRB  81  62  82  63 /  10  10  10   0
LEE  81  58  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  82  59  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  81  60  82  61 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  81  61  82  63 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Kelly