386
FXUS62 KMLB 131914
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
214 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 208 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

- Dry conditions are forecast across east central Florida as an
  area of high pressure remains situated across the area.

- Temperatures slowly warm over the next few days, with highs
  reaching near-normal values late this week into the weekend.

- Morning fog will be possible through the rest of the week and
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Rest of Today-Tonight...Quiet and dry across East Central Florida
under high pressure. Very pleasant this afternoon as temperatures
top out in the L-M70s, with gentle north to northeast winds, and
clear skies. Only weather of note is the potential for patchy fog
development late tonight into early Friday morning. Conditions
aren`t the most favorable between the very dry air and a light
overnight breeze, but model soundings do show a decent surface
inversion setting up, and winds could go light up north. MOS
guidance is currently not impressed while the HRRR generally calls
for some level of fog, possibly dense spreading into ECFL from
the north/west. All in all HREF seems like a decent compromise,
which indicates a low (10-20%) chance for visibility reductions
less than a mile mainly along and north of I-4. For now the
official forecast calls for patchy fog, which may in some cases be
more of a ground fog, but could still cause restricted visibility.
Overnight lows generally in L-M50s, but could still see some U40s
in the usually cooler spots up north, and L60s in the usually
warmer coastal areas down south.

Friday-Wednesday (Modified Previous Discussion)...The weak
backdoor front slides into the Florida peninsula and local
Atlantic waters on Friday with little fanfare, helping to further
reinforce the area of high pressure situated across the area. Dry
conditions are forecast through this weekend and into early next
week, with no mentionable rain chances highlighted in the
forecast. Little change in agreement, or lack thereof, from the
global models about a potential weak front early next week. The
ECM continues to push the front down into Central Florida while
the GFS and CMC fall short, though the 12Z GFS is at least closer
to the CMC and our neighborhood, bringing the front into North
Florida. Will continue to monitor and see which way the global
models trend, as the ECM solution could lead to some low rain
chances next week. Winds slowly veer through the period from out
of the east- northeast on Friday, to out of the southeast to
southwest over the weekend, and finally westerly Monday as the
high becomes elongated and the ridge axis shifts down to Central
Florida ahead of the front that may or may not make it here. Not a
great deal of confidence in the wind forecast Tuesday onward
given the uncertainty of the front`s position, but wind speeds are
forecast to remain generally below 15 mph through the period.
Temperatures are forecast to continue on a gradual warming trend,
with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Friday warming into the
upper 70s to low 80s this weekend and into the middle of next
week. Lows are forecast to generally remain in the 50s to low 60s.
Morning fog will be on the table through the weekend, and
possibly into early next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 208 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. High pressure over
Florida and the local Atlantic waters is reinforced by a weak
backdoor front tomorrow. Over the weekend and into early next week
the high becomes elongated over Florida by a low pressure system
passing north of the area. There is potential for another weak
front associated with the passing low pressure system to drop near
or into Central Florida and the local waters early next week.

Winds will gradually veer through the rest of the week, weekend,
and into early next week as the center of the high shifts around,
starting from the NNW-NNE today, then to the NNE-NE Friday, at
5-15 kts. Winds Saturday will be a bit squirrelly as the ridge
axis of the high drops over Central Florida and the Atlantic
waters, especially earlier in the day, swinging all the way from
NE-ENE in the morning to S-E in the evening, at 5-10 kts. By
Sunday morning winds will have settled to WSW-SW at 5-15 kts. Low
confidence in Monday`s winds due to uncertainty in the position of
the front, which could remain westerly if the front falls short
or become squirrelly again if the front moves into the area, but
should be 15 kts or less. Seas 2-4 ft highest in the Gulf Stream.
Mostly dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1202 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light northerly winds will
veer northeasterly later this afternoon as the east coast sea
breeze forms and pushes partly inland. Winds will then become
light and variable once again overnight. Guidance is showing
patchy fog being possible mainly along and north of the I-4
corridor late tonight an into Friday morning. However, confidence
is not high this will occur. So have introduced lower CIGs
(SCT010) at LEE, MCO, SFB around 08Z to show this potential. Winds
will then become northerly and increase to 5-10 KT by mid morning
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  52  75  55  78 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  53  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  56  77  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  56  77  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  52  76  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  52  77  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  54  77  56  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  55  77  59  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Watson