149
FXUS62 KMLB 141058
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
658 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues; entering
  the ocean is strongly discouraged

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures this week with a
  low chance for showers Wednesday and Thursday

- Boating conditions deteriorate tonight into Wednesday and
  remain poor to hazardous through Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Today-Tonight...High pressure is providing another dry and calm
start to the day with temperatures generally in the 60s to low 70s
(coast). Model guidance is indicating some potential for fog along
and west of the Saint Johns River basin this morning, mainly north
of our area. If and when fog develops, some reduced visibility could
spill southward toward Lake George and Astor before sunrise.
Otherwise, another pleasant day is in store with temperatures
reaching the low to mid 80s under mostly clear skies. Light north
winds gradually veer northeast into the afternoon, occasionally
gusting above 15 mph along the coast.

A high risk of rip currents continues at area beaches today.
Residents and visitors are encouraged to stay out of the water.

Along the Saint Johns River, the point at Astor is forecast to
remain in moderate flood stage through the rest of the week. Farther
upstream, points at Deland, Sanford, and Geneva remain in action
stage.

Wednesday-Thursday...Mid level ridging centered over the ArkLaTex
will extend north to the U.S./Canadian border on Wednesday. Central
Florida will be on the eastern edge of the ridge and on the far
western periphery of a seaward-moving mid level trough. In response,
surface high pressure over the Great Lakes builds southward in time,
and the pressure gradient over the local Atlantic tightens a bit mid
week. Thus, slightly breezier north-northeast winds are expected,
particularly at the coast. While much of the atmosphere will remain
very dry (above 850mb), increasing moisture in the lower levels is
anticipated to build shallow cumulus each day. With just enough
moisture concentrated near the surface, isolated showers are
possible, so maintained a 15% chance nearer to the coast. Another
push of low-level moisture arrives Thursday along and ahead of a
cold front. Coastal showers remain a possibility Thursday as well,
especially from the Cape southward. Drier air gradually works over
the area from north to south late Thursday night and into Friday.
Near to slightly below normal temperatures are forecast with warmer
conditions at the coast each night (daytime: low-mid 80s /
overnight: 60s-low 70s).

The risk for dangerous rip currents will continue and worsen by
Thursday as long-period swells arrive at the coast.

Friday-Monday...Behind Thursday`s front, surface high pressure
becomes well-established over the eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday
before gradually shifting toward the Atlantic on Sunday into Monday.
As the H5 ridge axis becomes centered over the southeastern U.S.,
the base of it flattens as an amplified trough sweeps across the
Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Saturday into Sunday. With the parent low
pressure center occluding over Canada, a cold front is anticipated
to gradually approach north Florida on Monday. Guidance is in decent
agreement on the arrival of the front early Monday, but questions
remain about rain chances altogether. For now, the forecast includes
a 15-20% chance areawide from Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

Prior to the late weekend/early next week front, conditions look to
stay mostly dry with onshore flow Friday-Saturday. Winds veer
southerly ahead of the front on Sunday with increasing PW values
(1.7-2.0") Sunday afternoon. By early next week, winds swing back
around to the north-northeast. A similar temperature forecast to
this week is in the cards with highs in the 80s and morning lows in
the 60s to low 70s. The warmest day of the next seven appears to be
Sunday, thanks to return flow and plenty of sunshine in between
partly cloudy skies. If you are planning to head to the beach, keep
in mind that the risk for life-threatening rip currents will remain
high Friday and on into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Favorable boating conditions briefly return to the local Atlantic
today as winds remain NNE 10-15 kt. Poor conditions resume across
the offshore waters by late afternoon as 6 ft seas build southward,
gradually expanding westward on Wednesday. Poor to hazardous seas
are forecast Wednesday afternoon through late Friday as long-period
swells build to 5-8 ft (up to 9 ft well offshore). A moderate to
fresh breeze is anticipated, starting NNE Wednesday, veering NE
Thursday, then ENE Friday. Improved conditions gradually return on
Saturday as waves decrease to 4-5 ft (up to 6 ft in the Gulf Stream).

Showers are possible over the waters beginning this afternoon but
increase in coverage Wednesday and Thursday as low-level moisture
increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 655 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

VFR conditions prevail at all east central Florida terminals.
Light and variable to calm winds during the overnight and early
morning periods pick up out of the northeast at 7 to 12 knots both
today and tomorrow after 14Z. Dry conditions anticipated. No VIS
or CIG concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  67  81  68 /   0  10  20  10
MCO  85  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
MLB  82  69  82  71 /  10  20  20  20
VRB  83  68  83  70 /  10  10  20  20
LEE  85  64  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  84  65  83  66 /   0  10  10  10
ORL  84  66  83  67 /   0  10  10  10
FPR  83  67  83  69 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen