071
FXUS62 KMLB 091939
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

- A Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather exists across portions
  of east central Florida today. Primary storm threats include
  strong wind gusts, lightning strikes, and hail.

- Below normal temperatures with wind chill values in the mid 20s
  to mid 30s forecast across east central Florida early this week
  behind a strong cold front.

- Deteriorating boating conditions are anticipated behind the cold
  front as northerly winds increase and seas build. A Small Craft
  Advisory begins early Monday morning across the local waters.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Current-Tonight... Despite persistent early morning cloud cover,
isolated to scattered storms have been able to develop from
Kissimmee to Cape Canaveral northward early this afternoon. Some
uncertainty exists in how convection will evolve through the
remainder of the day. A sea breeze is seen developing from Cape
Canaveral southward. Should this continue to develop further north,
CAMs would suggest increased shower and storm activity along the
Volusia and Brevard I-95 corridor before or around sunset.
However, cloud cover and early convection may hinder the
development of a healthy sea breeze that CAMs may suggest. Perhaps
the better chance for storms could shift slightly further south
of Cape Canaveral, focused along the southern Brevard and Indian
River Coast where better surface heating has occurred. However,
uncertainty even exists in this scenario as the cu field may
suggest less favorable environment there. Despite the tricky
forecast, have carried isolated to scattered rain chances across
much of east central Florida through the afternoon and evening.
Should a forcing mechanism spark a period of more organized
convection, environmental parameters could allow for isolated
strong storms. Increasing southwesterly mid level flow highlights
strong convective wind gusts being the primary threat. This
morning`s XMR sounding has shown temperatures aloft (500mb) at
-10.1C, and small hail cannot be ruled out in the most robust
storm. Any storm threat should diminish from west to east through
late afternoon and into the evening, generally wrapping up along
the coast around 7-8pm.

Tonight, focus shifts to a strong cold front which will pass central
Florida. While most locations are forecast to remain dry overnight,
only a slight chance of showers will exist as the front passes.
Cooler air begins to spread near, north, and west of I-4 early
tomorrow morning with lows in the mid to upper 50s. Farther south,
morning lows hold in the 60s.

Monday-Tuesday... Northerly winds increase to 10-15 mph behind the
cold front, and a much colder, drier airmass is advected across
central Florida. A temperature gradient will become apparent Monday
afternoon as cool air filters southward. Highs are held to the mid
60s near and north of I-4, spreading the upper 60s to mid 70s
further south. The coldest temperatures settle in Tuesday morning
with lows in the 30s across much of central Florida. A north breeze
will persist, and wind chill values are forecast to fall into the
upper 20s and low 30s. As a result, Cold Weather Advisories will
need to be considered for at least portions of the area early
Tuesday morning. Highs on Tuesday mostly range the mid to upper 50s
with areas along the Treasure coast reaching the low to mid 60s.

Wednesday-Saturday... Another cold morning is forecast Wednesday
with most areas seeing lows in the 40s. Areas of Lake and interior
Volusia counties look to be the coldest, reaching the mid to upper
30s. Winds diminish as high pressure builds across the region, and
patchy frost could be possible in vicinity of Lake George and the
Ocala National Forest Wednesday morning. A warming trend is then
expected into late week, and highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on
Wednesday climb into the upper 70s to low 80s by the weekend. A very
dry airmass will persist through late week with no mentionable rain
chances in the extended period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Offshore moving showers and storms will continue this afternoon and
evening as a cold front approaches the local waters. Isolated
stronger storms which develop will be capable of wind gusts of 34
kts or greater and small hail. Local marine conditions deteriorate
Monday behind the front as winds increase to 20-25 kts. A further
surge of northerly winds is then forecast into Monday night,
increasing to 25-30 kts. Seas build 6-8 ft across the Gulf Stream
Monday, peaking Tuesday morning around 6-9 ft nearshore and 9-12 ft
offshore. Small Craft Advisories go into effect late tonight for
offshore Brevard (0-20nm) and all legs of the Volusia waters (0-
60nm). Advisories then expand southward to cover all local waters of
east central Florida early Monday morning. Winds and seas quickly
recover and become favorable Wednesday as high pressure builds
across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 104 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

Scattered showers and lightning storms have developed from
ISM/MCO/TIX northward early this afternoon, and confidence is low in
how this activity will evolve through the remainder of the day. VCTS
included across the north at the top of the 18Z package with TSRA
TEMPOs generally after 20Z. Further south, VCTS starts after 20Z as
storms develop in the vicinity of the sea breeze. Southwest winds
around 8-10 kts this afternoon shift and increase tonight behind a
strong cold front, and gusts increase to 20-25 kts Monday morning.
Ceilings lower along the front, but TAFs remain VFR with this
package.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

North winds increase to around 10-15 mph Monday behind a strong cold
front. This will bring a much drier airmass to central Florida early
this week. Fire sensitive conditions are forecast on Monday with
near critical fire weather concerns increasing Tuesday as gusty
winds continue and minRH values fall between 25-35% across the
interior. Building high pressure will ease winds into mid week while
RH values remain sensitive.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  56  64  37  56 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  60  67  37  57 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  62  72  40  60 /  30   0   0   0
VRB  64  74  42  62 /  30  10   0   0
LEE  54  63  34  57 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  58  65  36  57 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  59  65  37  56 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  65  75  42  62 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ550-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ552-555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Leahy