588
FXUS62 KMLB 241741
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1241 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible across
  portions of east central Florida early this week.

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through midweek,
  with isolated showers possible mainly along the Treasure Coast.

- A stronger cold front then moves through early on Thanksgiving,
  leading to cooler than normal temperatures late week, with
  mostly dry conditions persisting.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today-Tuesday...A weak front will continue to slide south,
eventually stalling across the Lake Okeechobee region this
morning. This boundary will become more diffuse and will
eventually dissipate as it lifts back north Tuesday. Isolated
showers will continue near this front, mainly over the waters.
However, some of these showers may be able to push onshore, mainly
along the Treasure Coast with a developing low level E/NE flow.
Have maintained rain chances around 20 percent across this area
today and again late tonight through Tuesday morning. Otherwise,
it will remain mostly dry through early this week. May be a tad
cooler along the Volusia County coast today, where highs are
forecast in the upper 70s. Otherwise, the front provides no real
change in temperatures, with a building ridge aloft maintaining
warmer than normal conditions today and Tuesday, with highs for
most locations in the low 80s and overnight lows in the 60s.

Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible due to
lighter low level winds this morning and again late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. Greatest potential for fog will be along the
Treasure Coast and into the interior through early this morning, and
then mainly across the interior late tonight/early Tuesday morning.

Wednesday-Friday...Ridge aloft weakens and shifts eastward as a
large mid/upper level trough shifts into the eastern U.S. and
eventually pushes a stronger cold front through the region late
Wednesday night into early Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers
will be possible along the Treasure Coast and across the coastal
waters into Wednesday and Thursday as front approaches and moves
through the region. The potential for a storm or two will also
exist, mainly over the gulf stream waters where instability will be
a little higher. Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are forecast to
continue through mid to late week.

Highs continue to climb into Wednesday, reaching the low to mid 80s.
Max temps then fall into Thanksgiving Day behind the cold front,
ranging from the upper 60s along the Volusia County coast, and into
the 70s farther south and inland, except near 80 degrees across
southern portions of Okeechobee County and the Treasure Coast. Highs
then fall even further into Friday to the mid 60s to low 70s, as a
north-northeast breeze continues to usher in cooler than normal
temps. Lows fall into the 50s most areas Thursday and Friday night,
but northwest of I-4 min temps are forecast to fall even lower in
the mid to upper 40s.

Saturday-Sunday...High pressure quickly builds in north of the front
Saturday, tightening the pressure gradient and leading to a breezy
onshore flow through the weekend. This will begin to modify the cool
and dry airmass in place. Highs will rise to the low to mid 70s on
Saturday and upper 70s to around 80 degrees on Sunday. Overnight
lows will also return to the 60s for most areas Saturday and Sunday
nights. As moisture gradually increases, isolated to scattered
onshore moving showers will develop, initially along the Treasure
Coast Saturday and then across much of east central FL Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Today-Tonight...Favorable boating conditions forecast. Weak front
settles southward and stalls across the southern Treasure Coast
waters this morning and lingers there until it gradually dissipates
as it lifts northward Tuesday. Northeast winds around 5-10 knots
forecast across the coastal waters becoming east-southeast into
tonight. Seas 1-3 feet today, increasing to 2-4 feet tonight.
Isolated showers will continue to be possible over the coastal
waters, mainly south of the Cape and also across the offshore
Volusia waters.

Tuesday-Friday...Boating conditions will remain favorable through
midweek, with winds generally out of the south-southeast around 5-10
knots and seas 2-3 feet. A stronger cold front then moves through
the region late Wednesday night into early Thanksgiving Day, which
will lead to increasing northerly winds that will produce poor to
hazardous boating conditions into late week. Wind speeds will
increase to 15-20 knots Thursday and remain breezy into Friday,
building seas up to 5-7 feet.

Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible over the
waters Tuesday through Thursday. A storm or two may also potentially
develop, mainly over the gulf stream waters as front approaches
Wednesday and moves through early Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low level ENE winds to 7-10 knots expected this aftn with VFR
conds and cumulus layer at 040-060, with higher mid level CIGs
at 070 from KFPR-KSUA thru 00z. Some patchy fog and stratus will
develop later tonight mainly along and north of a KISM-KTIX line.
Added tempo MVFR BR at KDAB/KSFB 10z-13z, lower probs as other nrn
terminals but may need to introduce lower vsby fog chcs with later
forecasts. Low lvl S/SE flow and enhanced low level moisture
may bring a shower or two to the Treasure Coast Tue morning and
have added VCSH for the KSUA-KFPR corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  81  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  63  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  64  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  61  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  83  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  82  63  83 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Weitlich
AVIATION...Volkmer