249
FXUS62 KMLB 241848
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
148 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Patchy, locally dense fog will continue to be possible across
  portions of east central Florida late tonight into early Tuesday
  morning.

- Warm and mostly dry conditions are forecast through midweek,
  with isolated showers possible, mainly along the Treasure
  Coast.

- A stronger cold front then moves through early on Thanksgiving,
  leading to cooler than normal temperatures and hazardous boating
  conditions late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Through Tuesday...A stalled front near the Treasure Coast and Lake
Okeechobee will linger across the area into tonight. The boundary
is then forecast to lift northward Tuesday away from the forecast
area, as surface high pressure drifts offshore the the southeastern
US coastline. A few showers continue just offshore from the
Treasure Coast early this afternoon and will remain possible,
mainly over the Atlantic waters, into tonight. PoPs around 20-30%
for coastal St Lucie and Martin Counties, though most areas will
remain dry, with PoPs below 15%. Patchy fog is once again
expected late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Models suggest
the greatest threat for fog looks to be across the interior,
especially north and west of I-4. Fog may become dense at times,
with visibilities below 1 mile. Use caution during the Tuesday
morning commute. Overnight low temperatures are forecast in the
upper 50s to lower 60s.

Any fog and low clouds that develop near or prior to sunrise are
forecast to lift through mid-morning. East- northeast winds today
veer southeasterly Tuesday, as high pressure moves into the
western Atlantic, though winds look to remain around 10 mph or
less. NBM guidance remains too dry, despite global models and CAMs
supporting at least an isolated chance for a few showers over the
Atlantic waters and near the Treasure Coast. Thus, have nudged
forecast PoPs a bit higher than NBM, with PoPs around 20%.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions prevail. High temperatures are
expected to remain warmer than normal in the lower 80s.

Wednesday-Thursday...Low pressure moves eastward through the upper
Midwest and Canada mid-week, dragging a stronger surface cold
front through the Deep South. This boundary is forecast to reach
the Florida peninsula Wednesday night, then pass southward through
east central Florida through Thanksgiving. Southwesterly winds
ahead of the front will make Wednesday afternoon the warmest of
the week. High temperatures are forecast to be between 5-7 degrees
above average in the lower to mid-80s. Mostly dry conditions
prevail, though slightly higher moisture (PWATs near 1.5") is
forecast to advect into southern portions of the forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Thus, a few showers will once again be
possible along the Treasure Coast, with PoPs near 20%.

The frontal passage itself is forecast to be mostly dry, with the
highest PoPs (20-40%) along and offshore from the Treasure Coast.
A few lightning strikes cannot be ruled out, mainly over the Gulf
Stream waters. Northerly winds behind the front will increase to
around 10-15 mph by Thursday afternoon, with gusts up to 20 mph
along the coast. Cooler, drier air will begin to filter into the
area, leading to quite the temperature gradient across the CWA.
Areas along and north of the I-4 corridor are expected to struggle
to reach the mid-70s, while the Space and Treasure Coasts warm
into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows Thursday night
will also be noticeably cooler, with 40s for most areas, while
coastal locations remain in the 50s.

Friday-Sunday...High pressure builds across the southeastern US
late week and into the weekend. A tight pressure gradient will
lead to breezy northerly winds Friday becoming onshore into
the weekend, with winds 15-20 mph and gusts 20-25 mph. Colder,
drier air will lead to high temperatures in the 60s for most
locations across east central Florida Friday afternoon, with the
exception of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, which looks
to remain in the lower 70s. As winds veer onshore, PWATs increase
each day and nearer to normal high temperatures return by Sunday.
Cooler temperatures in the mid-40s to mid-50s linger Friday night
for much of the area, before returning to the mid-60s Monday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Rest of Today-Wednesday...A weak front stalled near the Treasure
Coast will wash out into tonight, before lifting north of the area
Tuesday. A few showers continue along the boundary early this
afternoon and will remain possible offshore from the Treasure
Coast into Wednesday. East-northeast winds today will veer
southeast Tuesday and southwest Wednesday, as high pressure over
the Southeast US drifts offshore into the Atlantic. Generally
favorable boating conditions persist, with winds around 10 kts or
less and seas 2-3 ft.

Wednesday Night-Saturday...A stronger cold front is forecast move
through the local Atlantic waters Wednesday night into Thursday.
Behind the front, northerly winds are expected to increase to
20-25 kts by Thursday afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions look
to continue into the weekend, veering progressively onshore each
day, as high pressure builds into the area and the pressure
gradient remains tight. Hazardous boating conditions are forecast,
as seas build up to 6-8 ft, especially in the Gulf Stream. Small
Craft Advisories will likely be needed by the afternoon on
Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low level ENE winds to 7-10 knots expected this aftn with VFR
conds and cumulus layer at 040-060, with higher mid level CIGs
at 070 from KFPR-KSUA thru 00z. Some patchy fog and stratus will
develop later tonight mainly along and north of a KISM-KTIX line.
Added tempo MVFR BR at KDAB/KSFB 10z-13z, lower probs as other nrn
terminals but may need to introduce lower vsby fog chcs with later
forecasts. Low lvl S/SE flow and enhanced low level moisture
may bring a shower or two to the Treasure Coast Tue morning and
have added VCSH for the KSUA-KFPR corridor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  81  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  63  83  64  84 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  65  81  65  82 /   0  10  10  10
VRB  64  82  63  83 /  10  10  10  10
LEE  61  83  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  62  83  64  83 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  63  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  63  82  63  83 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Volkmer