046
FXUS62 KMLB 151041
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
641 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

- High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the
  weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged

- Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the
  local Atlantic waters this afternoon through Friday

- A cold front is forecast to approach the area late this weekend
  into early next week, with increasing rain chances forecast

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging builds across the Gulf and
southeastern U.S. today, with an area of surface high pressure
slowly building towards east central Florida. A tight pressure
gradient across the area will lead to breezy northeast winds this
afternoon, especially along the coast. While PWATs remain
generally around 1" across east central Florida, the moisture
concentrated in the lower levels combined with the breezy winds
may be just enough to cause some isolated shower development. This
development is forecast to remain primarily across the local
Atlantic waters through tonight, though the northeasterly flow may
cause some activity to move onshore. As a result, PoPs maintain a
roughly 15 to 20% chance of rain along the immediate coast.
Storms are not anticipated with any of this activity.

Outside of the minimal rain chances along the coast, conditions
are forecast to remain mostly sunny across east central Florida
today. Temperatures remain near-normal in the low to mid 80s this
afternoon, falling into the 60s across the interior and into the
low 70s along the immediate coast. A high risk of rip currents
continues at all east central Florida beaches today due to long
period swells. Entering the ocean is not advised.

Thursday-Tuesday...Mid-level ridging across the Gulf and
southeastern U.S. slowly drifts eastward towards the Florida
peninsula late this week, gradually flattening out into the
weekend as a trough swings across the central U.S. and towards the
east coast. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to remain
primarily in control of the local weather through the end of the
work week, though some guidance continues to hint at a weak front
approaching the peninsula and local waters Thursday into Friday.
Lower confidence in shower activity resulting from this weak
boundary, so maintain rain chances below 15% through Saturday. A
close eye will be kept on guidance for Thursday. The next best
chance for a cold front passage looks to be Sunday into Monday,
with moisture increasing locally and leading to increasing rain
chances (20%). Still too early to have any sort of confidence on
storm activity, so kept mention of thunder out of the forecast for
now. Will reevaluate and adjust as needed. Behind the front late
Monday and into Tuesday, anticipate another area of high pressure
building across the Gulf and towards the Florida peninsula, with a
return of mostly dry conditions at the start of next week across
east central Florida.

Winds veer through the extended period, starting out of the
northeast and east Thursday through Saturday and shifting to out
of the southeast on Sunday. Behind the front, winds quickly veer
and become northeasterly once more late Monday into Tuesday.
Afternoon temperatures generally remain between the low to mid 80s
through the weekend and into early next week, with Sunday slated
to be the warmest day with widespread highs in the mid 80s.
Overnight temperatures are anticipated to remain in the 60s, with
occasional low 70s along the coast some evenings. Outside of the
normal day-to- day weather, residents and visitors are encouraged
to maintain awareness of the rip current forecast. A high risk of
rip currents is anticipated to continue through at least this
weekend due to guidance hinting at continued long period swells.
Entering the ocean is not encouraged when the rip risk is high. Be
sure to heed the advice of local beach safety officials.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

High pressure is forecast to continue building towards the local
Atlantic waters through late week. Poor to hazardous boating
conditions are forecast locally as the pressure gradient tightens,
resulting in increasing northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots through
Thursday night. Seas respond by building to 4 to 8 feet, with the
greatest seas focused across the offshore waters. A Small Craft
Advisory goes into effect across the offshore waters late this
afternoon into the overnight hours, with small craft advised to
exercise caution across the nearshore waters. Isolated showers
will be possible today through Thursday, with the passage of a
weak boundary possible across the local waters on Thursday.

The pressure gradient weakens late this week, with boating
conditions forecast to improve late Friday into Saturday. Winds
become more onshore Friday and Saturday, before slowly veering to
out of the southeast on Sunday ahead of the next frontal passage.
A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the local
Atlantic waters Sunday into Monday, with rain chances increasing
to around 20%. Winds veer from the southeast to out of the
northeast behind the front on Monday, with seas generally
remaining between 3 to 6 feet late this weekend into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Mainly VFR conds are forecast through the TAF period. Isold SHRA
will brush the coast next 24 hours as a slight increase in low
level moisture overspreads from the NE. Will maintain VCSH at
coastal terminals; confidence/coverage not high enough to include
at interior terminals (MCO/SFB). North to northeast wind will
increase 10-14 knots after sunrise, gusting 20-22 knots esp along
the coast DAB-MLB in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  80  68  82  67 /  10  10   0   0
MCO  83  66  84  68 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  83  70  83  71 /  20  20  10   0
VRB  83  70  84  71 /  20  20  10   0
LEE  83  63  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  83  66  84  66 /  10  10   0   0
ORL  83  66  84  67 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  83  69  84  70 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday
     for AMZ575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Tollefsen
AVIATION...Kelly