


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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046 FXUS62 KMLB 151041 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 641 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 - High risk of life-threatening rip currents continues through the weekend; entering the ocean is strongly discouraged - Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast across the local Atlantic waters this afternoon through Friday - A cold front is forecast to approach the area late this weekend into early next week, with increasing rain chances forecast && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Today-Tonight...Mid-level ridging builds across the Gulf and southeastern U.S. today, with an area of surface high pressure slowly building towards east central Florida. A tight pressure gradient across the area will lead to breezy northeast winds this afternoon, especially along the coast. While PWATs remain generally around 1" across east central Florida, the moisture concentrated in the lower levels combined with the breezy winds may be just enough to cause some isolated shower development. This development is forecast to remain primarily across the local Atlantic waters through tonight, though the northeasterly flow may cause some activity to move onshore. As a result, PoPs maintain a roughly 15 to 20% chance of rain along the immediate coast. Storms are not anticipated with any of this activity. Outside of the minimal rain chances along the coast, conditions are forecast to remain mostly sunny across east central Florida today. Temperatures remain near-normal in the low to mid 80s this afternoon, falling into the 60s across the interior and into the low 70s along the immediate coast. A high risk of rip currents continues at all east central Florida beaches today due to long period swells. Entering the ocean is not advised. Thursday-Tuesday...Mid-level ridging across the Gulf and southeastern U.S. slowly drifts eastward towards the Florida peninsula late this week, gradually flattening out into the weekend as a trough swings across the central U.S. and towards the east coast. At the surface, high pressure is forecast to remain primarily in control of the local weather through the end of the work week, though some guidance continues to hint at a weak front approaching the peninsula and local waters Thursday into Friday. Lower confidence in shower activity resulting from this weak boundary, so maintain rain chances below 15% through Saturday. A close eye will be kept on guidance for Thursday. The next best chance for a cold front passage looks to be Sunday into Monday, with moisture increasing locally and leading to increasing rain chances (20%). Still too early to have any sort of confidence on storm activity, so kept mention of thunder out of the forecast for now. Will reevaluate and adjust as needed. Behind the front late Monday and into Tuesday, anticipate another area of high pressure building across the Gulf and towards the Florida peninsula, with a return of mostly dry conditions at the start of next week across east central Florida. Winds veer through the extended period, starting out of the northeast and east Thursday through Saturday and shifting to out of the southeast on Sunday. Behind the front, winds quickly veer and become northeasterly once more late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon temperatures generally remain between the low to mid 80s through the weekend and into early next week, with Sunday slated to be the warmest day with widespread highs in the mid 80s. Overnight temperatures are anticipated to remain in the 60s, with occasional low 70s along the coast some evenings. Outside of the normal day-to- day weather, residents and visitors are encouraged to maintain awareness of the rip current forecast. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated to continue through at least this weekend due to guidance hinting at continued long period swells. Entering the ocean is not encouraged when the rip risk is high. Be sure to heed the advice of local beach safety officials. && .MARINE... Issued at 205 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 High pressure is forecast to continue building towards the local Atlantic waters through late week. Poor to hazardous boating conditions are forecast locally as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in increasing northeast winds of 10 to 20 knots through Thursday night. Seas respond by building to 4 to 8 feet, with the greatest seas focused across the offshore waters. A Small Craft Advisory goes into effect across the offshore waters late this afternoon into the overnight hours, with small craft advised to exercise caution across the nearshore waters. Isolated showers will be possible today through Thursday, with the passage of a weak boundary possible across the local waters on Thursday. The pressure gradient weakens late this week, with boating conditions forecast to improve late Friday into Saturday. Winds become more onshore Friday and Saturday, before slowly veering to out of the southeast on Sunday ahead of the next frontal passage. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward across the local Atlantic waters Sunday into Monday, with rain chances increasing to around 20%. Winds veer from the southeast to out of the northeast behind the front on Monday, with seas generally remaining between 3 to 6 feet late this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 640 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Mainly VFR conds are forecast through the TAF period. Isold SHRA will brush the coast next 24 hours as a slight increase in low level moisture overspreads from the NE. Will maintain VCSH at coastal terminals; confidence/coverage not high enough to include at interior terminals (MCO/SFB). North to northeast wind will increase 10-14 knots after sunrise, gusting 20-22 knots esp along the coast DAB-MLB in the afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 80 68 82 67 / 10 10 0 0 MCO 83 66 84 68 / 10 10 0 0 MLB 83 70 83 71 / 20 20 10 0 VRB 83 70 84 71 / 20 20 10 0 LEE 83 63 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 83 66 84 66 / 10 10 0 0 ORL 83 66 84 67 / 10 10 0 0 FPR 83 69 84 70 / 20 20 10 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ572. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ575. && $$ DISCUSSION...Tollefsen AVIATION...Kelly