742
FXUS62 KMLB 180100
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
900 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.UPDATE...
Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Deep easterly flow around high pressure off the New England coast
will keep min temps quite mild, holding in the upper 70s/near 80
at the coast and mid 70s interior tonight. Isolated showers will
push onshore and could spread well inland before dissipating but
coverage will be low. Very dry mid levels will prevent deep
convection (thunder).

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 847 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Mainly VFR. Easterly winds will continue overnight, decreasing
7-10 knots over the interior but remaining 10-15 knots and gusty
at coastal terminals. Brief passing SHRA/MVFR CIGs possible but
coverage looks too low for VCSH. On Tue, stout east flow 17-20
knots with gusts up to 30 knots will produce crosswinds for MCO,
likely affecting AAR somewhat. A better chance for fast moving
SHRA with CIGs holding just above VFR threshold, around 035AGL.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tuesday-Wednesday...Onshore flow persists through midweek as
upper level high pressure begins to shift north and gradually
expands westward over the TN Valley. Breezy conditions are
expected through the day with gusts pushing 30 mph at the coast
during the afternoon and evening. Model guidance depicts waves of
greater atmospheric moisture traversing the state, acting to
elevate rain chances. The primary focus for repeated rounds of
showers and isolated lightning storms will be nearer to the coast
each day. Lower rain chances (20-40 percent) remain along and
north of I-4. Generally, QPF through Thursday morning remains
anywhere from a few hundredths (inland) to 0.75" of rainfall along
the coast. Isolated amounts to 1.5"-2.0" cannot be ruled out
where rounds of heavy downpours move over the same location.
Afternoon highs remain seasonable in the upper 80s to around 90
degrees (warmer inland). Overnight lows range from the low 70s
inland to the mid and upper 70s along the coast.

Wednesday-Sunday (modified previous)...Surface high pressure
extending over the Florida peninsula will retreat northward by
late week. Most models are in agreement that an increase in
moisture across Florida will occur through late week as a surface
trough is forecast to move WNW toward the southeast U.S. coast by
Friday. Locally, increasing rain and storm chances are forecast
Thursday with 60 percent PoP areawide. However, exact timing and
placement of the highest QPF remains uncertain. Episodes of
moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible late week if attendant
moisture from the surface trough reaches Florida. Breezy onshore
flow will persist with wind speeds generally around 15 mph (up to
20 mph along the coast) late week with decreasing wind speeds
into the weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 80s to low
90s through late week, with mid 90s possible into the weekend,
mainly across the northern interior. Overnight lows will generally
be in the low to mid 70s. Surf conditions will also deteriorate
through the week, due to onshore winds and building ocean swells.
This will increase the risk of life-threatening rip currents at
area beaches, along with rough surf.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Tonight...Deteriorating boating conditions are expected as
persistent onshore flow works to build seas up to 5 ft. Wind
speeds of 15-20 kt are expected with gusts 20-25 kt. Small craft
should exercise caution over the local waters. In addition,
isolated showers will continue to stream from east to west over
the Atlantic through daybreak Tuesday.

Tuesday-Friday (modified previous...Poor to hazardous boating
conditions expected through late week as a trough approaches the
Florida peninsula as it moves towards the eastern US. A Small
Craft Advisory begins for the offshore waters late Tuesday morning
and will likely expand to the rest of the local waters through
midweek. Onshore flow will persist , with winds generally 15-20 KT
through Thursday, with winds increasing to 20-25 KT in the
offshore waters Wednesday and Thursday. Winds decrease to around
10 KT by late week. Seas 5-7ft on Tuesday will increase to 6-8ft
on Wednesday, and 7-9 ft on Thursday before beginning to subside
on Friday with seas decreasing to 4-6ft. Increasing rain and storm
chances mid to late week, with scattered to numerous showers and
scattered lightning storms will be possible. Rain chances will
decrease slightly into late week, with scattered showers and
lightning storms remaining possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  50
MCO  74  88  75  88 /  10  30  20  40
MLB  77  87  77  87 /  20  50  40  50
VRB  76  87  76  87 /  20  50  40  50
LEE  75  90  76  91 /  10  20  10  30
SFB  74  89  75  89 /  10  30  20  40
ORL  75  89  76  89 /  10  30  20  40
FPR  75  87  76  87 /  20  50  50  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Wednesday
     for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Kelly
AVIATION...Kelly