176
FXUS62 KMLB 262327
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, UPDATE, AVIATION, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

- Showers diminish south of Melbourne this evening.

- An approaching cold front on Thanksgiving Day will deliver a few
  showers and a low chance for lightning, particularly along the
  Treasure Coast in the afternoon. Breezy and turning cooler.

- Very chilly Thursday night and early Friday. Temperatures set to
  fall into the 40s and 50s with lowest wind chill values in 30s
  and 40s across parts of east central Florida.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Made a few tweaks to the forecast to follow radar trends this
evening south of Melbourne. Triggered by a series of boundary /
sea & lake breeze collisions, a few showers will linger for a
couple hours before diminishing for much of the night. Our next
chance for a few showers is forecast on the approaching cold
front northwest of Orlando after midnight. While low stratus is
favored along the boundary, we will monitor trends for any fog
development.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Current-Tonight...A warm afternoon for late November with near
record warmth in the 80s areawide. Today`s highs will top out near
the middle 80s, several degrees above climo and near record values.
Please see Climate section below for records. A modest "uptick" in
moisture may allow for ISOLD-WDLY SCT showers and ISOLD lightning
storms into tonight well ahead of the front generally south of
Melbourne. A strong cold front, while mostly dry, will push into our
northern coverage warning area late tonight and through the
remainder of ECFL during the morning on Thu. Models do try to "spit"
out some sprinkles/few light showers late tonight across the I-4
corridor and have added a small PoP to match up with neighbors here.
Light SW/WSW winds out ahead of this boundary will slowly veer
WRLY/NWRLY thru the night.

Overnight lows mild and generally in the L-M60s, except U50s for
portions of north Lake/northwest Volusia counties. Low confidence on
fog chances overnight, but greatest prospects would be along the
Kissimmee River and towards Lake Okeechobee (pre-frontal).

Thanksgiving Day...Will monitor for some early morning stratus
clouds and potential patchy fog southward (ahead of the front).
Otherwise, the strong cold front will plow through the remainder of
ECFL during the morning, with highest rain prospects 20-40% south of
a Melbourne-Kenansville line. Isolated lightning storms cannot be
ruled out. Generally a pleasant, albeit cooler, holiday on tap.
Behind the front, max temps will only muster U60s to L70s
along/north of I-4 with M-U70s southward toward Lake Okee, except
80F for much of Martin County. Northerly winds (post-frontal) will
make it feel cooler with speeds gradually increasing to 8-12 mph
across the interior and up to around 15 mph near the coast, with
higher gusts for all during the afternoon. Much drier air will
slowly filter southward in the afternoon - esp northward. This will
lead to sensitive fire weather conditions.

Thu Night-Fri...Cooler and drier air continue to filter southward
during this period. Northerly winds (breezy/gusty) continue to
increase to 10-15 mph areawide overnight (up to 15-20 mph along the
coast on Fri) with frequent higher gusts. This as fairly stout high
pressure builds in from the northwest creating a tighter pressure
gradient behind the most recent front.

Overnight lows into Fri morning in the L40s north/west of I-4 with M-
U40s for coastal Volusia and southward thru the interior and L-M50s
for coastal Brevard/Indian River counties, except M-U50s for coastal
St. Lucie/Martin counties. Lowest wind chill (apparent temperature)
readings overnight Thu/Fri morning will realize U30s north/west of I-
4 with near 40F to L40s across coastal Volusia and southward toward
Lake Okee and interior (W of I-95) portions of Brevard/Indian River
counties. Elsewhere U40s to 50s for coastal Brevard/Treasure Coast.
Conditions will not be favorable for frost development due to the
elevated winds.

Afternoon highs (below normal) Fri only recover into the 60s, maybe
near 70F for portions of the Treasure Coast. The elevated winds and
low relative humidity will lead to continued sensitive fire weather
conditions areawide. Still fairly chilly Fri night into Saturday
morning - with an onshore wind component developing along the coast.
Expect lows to range from the 40s over the interior, with M-U50s for
coastal Brevard/Treasure Coasts - except a few L60s for immediate
St. Lucie/Martin coasts.

Sat-Wed...Previous Modified...Model agreement through the extended
continues to improve. A modest trough swinging through the northern
CONUS will support a developing surface low as it tracks east-
northeast from the Central Plains near to south of the Great Lakes,
and across the southeast Canadian provinces, ushering high pressure
offshore of the Eastern Seaboard. At this time, there are no
significant mid-upper features to push the next cold front into
central FL until at least mid next week. Onshore flow is expected to
develop and deepen early in the weekend lasting until perhaps at
least Mon night/Tue before becoming S/SW in advance of the next low
pressure system. This will support gradual warming through the
weekend and into early next week, and potentially some low rain
chances Sun into the first half of next week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Thru Tonight...An approaching strong cold front will push into the
local waters overnight. Southerly winds 5-10 kts this evening will
veer NW/N by daybreak Thu morning with speeds gradually increasing
to 10-15 kts at least north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 2-3 ft, except
up to 4 ft offshore Volusia late. ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers and
ISOLD lightning storms will be possible.

Thu-Fri...Winds increase behind the cold front with seas slowly
responding (building) as well. Boating conditions deteriorate thru
the day/night on Thu. For this forecast package have initiated a
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for Volusia waters (15Z/10AM, Brevard
waters (18Z/1PM), and finally for the Treasure Coast waters
(18Z/4PM) as a wind surge slowly pushes southward behind this latest
boundary. Expect wind speeds to slowly increase to 20-25 kts (north
to south) with higher gusts. Initial seas of 2-4 ft will build 3-5
ft near shore and 4-6 ft offshore by early Thu evening, becoming 5-6
ft near shore and 6-7 ft (possibly 8 ft) Gulf Stream by daybreak Fri
morning. ISOLD-SCT showers with ISOLD lightning storms forecast Thu-
Thu evening ending southward as drier air filters across the local
waters behind the front.

Sat-Sun...Boating conditions remain poor into Sat, esp Gulf Stream,
as a tight pressure gradient continues between low pressure to the
south and high pressure building into the area from the north. ERLY
winds 15-20 kts and seas building to 4-6 ft. The gradient relaxes
slightly on Sun with onshore winds decreasing to 12-17 kts and seas
subsiding to 4-5 ft. Mainly dry conditions into Sat, then gradual
rain chances return Sun.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

MCO IMPACT:
- Low stratus forms late tonight and Thursday morning along a
  cold front. IFR probabilities have increased to around 50% by
  09Z.

Showers continue over/near the Treasure Coast terminals this
evening; this activity should diminish over the next couple hours.
Next up is an approaching cold front, arriving around the Greater
Orlando terminals around daybreak. There is a 20-30% chance for
showers, near and north of MCO, but a better potential (50-60%)
for low stratus along the front in the morning. CIGs into the IFR
range are most likely in the Orlando/Daytona areas in the morning
hours, with the lower CIGs then shifting toward MLB to SUA from
late morning through the afternoon. Finally, a few more showers
are forecast (low chance for lightning) esp at FPR and SUA in the
afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 117 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

A strong, but mostly dry cold front, will push through the area
overnight thru early Thu. Fairly strong high pressure follows with
very dry air and cooler temperatures. Sensitive fire weather
conditions will develop with drier air accompanied with increasing
(post-frontal) northerly winds Thu afternoon-Fri. Min RHs Thu
forecast to drop below 40% along and north of I-4, and possibly
below 30% well north, further decreasing Fri to less than 40%
across much of the interior, and less than 30% in Lake County and
portions of adjacent counties. Winds currently forecast to remain
below 15 mph where RHs are lowest. Afternoon smoke dispersion Thu
is forecast to be mostly Poor to Fair due to generally low mixing
heights and weak transport winds, becoming Generally Good Fri.
There are low to moderate (20-40%) chances for showers and low
(around 20%) chances for lighting storms across the southern
counties Thu. Winds shift onshore by the weekend, increasing
moisture and improving fire weather conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 627 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Daytona Beach tied its record high today (85F/1992).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  60  70  44  61 /  20  20   0   0
MCO  65  73  47  63 /  10  20   0   0
MLB  65  76  49  66 /  10  10   0   0
VRB  65  78  51  68 /  20  20   0   0
LEE  60  70  42  61 /  20  10   0   0
SFB  63  71  44  62 /  20  20   0   0
ORL  64  72  45  62 /  10  20   0   0
FPR  65  79  51  69 /  40  20   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ552-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 7 PM EST Friday for
     AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil