804
FXUS62 KMLB 151749
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1249 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

- A seasonably warm and dry weekend is forecast across east
  central Florida. Patchy morning fog is possible, mainly over
  rural locations.

- There is a Moderate Risk of life-threatening rip currents at
  Atlantic beaches this weekend.

- Little to no rain is anticipated over the next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Broad northwesterly flow persists aloft over Florida this
morning, courtesy of a deep trough centered over the Canadian
Maritimes. Upstream, a ridge of upper high pressure is placed over
the Southern Plains. The overall upper-air pattern is expected
to be relatively stable through the weekend due to a powerful
blocking high over Greenland. The Southern Plains ridge is likely
to be forced eastward by the middle of next week, extending from
the Gulf northward to the Great Lakes, in response to multiple
disturbances crashing onto the California coast.

Surface high pressure remains in control, its center only
displaced from North Florida today to South Florida on Sunday. An
energetic shortwave diving into the Northeast U.S. will push
a moisture-starved front toward the state late on Sunday and
into Monday before undergoing frontolysis somewhere over the
peninsula. After that time, reinforcing high pressure builds over
the Carolinas and then drifts into the W Atlantic by the middle of
next week. Only around 20% of the 14/12Z ensemble suite has a
front approaching Florida around next Saturday. With the upper
ridge axis anchored close to Florida by late next week, it looks
rather difficult for any strong cold fronts to make their way
down here.

Total moisture values remain near to below normal for much of
the next week. H85 T`s hold just a bit below normal through the
weekend before jumping above normal by the middle of next week
(and likely well beyond that time as well).

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Weekend...

Pleasant autumn weather continues with seasonable afternoon
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s to low
60s. Plenty of sunshine is forecast after any patchy morning fog
burns off. By Sunday afternoon, west-southwesterly winds increase
just a bit (10-15 mph with a few gusts to 20 mph) ahead of our
next front.

Next Week...

On Monday, the front approaching Florida will quickly be losing
steam as it outruns its upper support. There is a brief ribbon
of slightly higher moisture, perhaps enough for some added cloud
cover or even some showers offshore early in the week. With the
polar jet remaining well north, no significant cool air intrusion
is anticipated. In fact, as ridging builds overhead from the
middle of the week and beyond, expect temperatures to turn above
normal (80s). While a couple showers or sprinkles may skirt the
coast around Tuesday or Wednesday, we still have no mention of
measurable rain over land for the next week.

Beyond The 7-Day...

As we look toward the week of Thanksgiving, ensemble guidance
places the active storm track closer to the Mississippi Valley as
ridging tries to hold sway near Florida. CPC favors above-normal
temperatures and near-normal rainfall over Florida between
November 22nd - 28th.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

An axis of high pressure remains over the waters today and tonight,
yielding light winds and favorable seas. By Sunday, an approaching
cold front will freshen offshore breezes, particularly over the
Volusia County Gulf Stream waters. This front is expected to
dissipate over the local Atlantic late Monday into Tuesday with
high pressure building in its wake by the middle of next week.

Near the coast, winds turn onshore this afternoon, E up to 10
KT. The sea breeze is unlikely to develop on Sunday, leaving WSW
winds 5-10 KT near the coast, up to 15-20 KT well offshore and
north of Cape Canaveral. Winds turn NNE on Monday, then quickly E
on Tuesday, up to 10 KT both days. Seas 1-2 FT nearshore through
the weekend and early next week, and up to 3-4 FT in the Gulf
Stream.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 1244 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Northeast flow this
afternoon will become east to southeast later in the afternoon.
Speeds will generally be 10 KT or less. Winds will then become
light and variable once again overnight. Models are hinting at
patchy fog developing late tonight into early Sunday morning
across the far western interior. Confidence remains low this will
occur. So have kept mention out of TAFs at this time. Winds will
then veer southwest/west by mid Sunday morning and increase to
5-10 KT, increasing to 8-12 KT in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  55  78  60  77 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  56  79  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  58  80  60  78 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  58  80  59  79 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  55  78  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  56  78  60  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  57  78  61  79 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  57  80  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Watson