Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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FNUS72 KMLB 090123
FWSMLB
Spot Forecast for New Wildfire...NPS
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
923 PM EDT Sat Jun 8 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 EDT on June 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good evening. South to east-southeast winds around 10 mph with higher gusts possible
this evening at the burn site. An isolated shower or possibly a lightning storm can
not be ruled out this evening. Winds will become light and veer to the southwest
overnight with mostly dry conditions expected. Chance of rain 10 percent or less
overnight. Due to high humidity coupled with light winds, patchy fog development
will be possible at or near the burn site late tonight and into early Sunday morning.
Winds will become west to southwest by mid-morning and increase to 5 to 10 mph.
The east coast sea breeze is expected to form once again on Sunday, veering the winds
southeast, with winds increasing to around 10 mph with higher gusts possible behind the
sea breeze. Isolated showers and lightning storms will be possible Sunday afternoon as
the sea breeze forms and pushes inland, with the greatest potential for storms being early
to mid afternoon.
Hot and humid conditions continue for Sunday, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s with a
heat index of 100-106 degrees. Smoke dispersion values will be poor to fair Sunday.
.REST OF TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................9-15 strikes until 2200, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 75.
Max humidity........97 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the
southwest around 5 mph after 3 am. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
in the evening.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 13 mph shifting to the west 9 to 12
mph overnight.
Dispersion index....5.
LVORI...............5 increasing to 6 early in the morning.
TIME (EDT) 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........39 36 39 30 23 17 19 23 25
Weather cov.....CHC SCH
Weather type....RW RW
Tstm cov........CHC SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............83 82 81 80 79 78 78 77 75
RH..............77 79 82 85 85 85 85 87 94
20 FT wind dir..S S S SW SW SW SW W W
20 FT wind spd..7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.16 15 14 14 14 14 14 13 13
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S SW SW SW SW W W W
Transp wind spd.13 13 12 12 12 12 12 9 9
Dispersion idx..6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
LVORI...........4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
southeast 6 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL increasing to 4000 ft AGL in the
late morning and early afternoon, then
decreasing to 2000 ft AGL late in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 8 to 10 mph shifting to the east 8 to 12
mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....4 increasing to 37 early in the afternoon decreasing
to 24.
LVORI...............7 decreasing to 3.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........23 11 10 6 16 16
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 2
Temp............75 77 87 91 93 92
RH..............97 94 68 58 54 56
20 ft wind......W 5 W 5 W 5 SW 5 E 6 SE 8
20 ft wind gust.12 12 10 9 8 12
Mix hgt (ft)....400 1300 2500 3700 3200 2000
Transport wind..W 9 W 10 W 9 W 8 SW 8 E 10
Dispersion idx..4 17 30 38 33 26
LVORI...........7 5 3 2 2 2
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 74.
Max humidity........90 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 9 mph shifting to the
southwest around 6 mph overnight. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 17 mph shifting to the southwest 10
to 12 mph overnight.
Dispersion index....21 decreasing to 9 early in the evening.
LVORI...............3 increasing to 5 in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........18 19 17 19 19 20
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20 10 10 10 0 0
LAL.............2 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............91 87 83 80 78 76
RH..............60 70 77 84 88 89
20 ft wind......SE 9 SE 9 S 7 S 6 SW 6 SW 6
20 ft wind gust.13 15 14 13 13 13
Mix hgt (ft)....1300 1000 900 900 800 700
Transport wind..SE 15 S 17 S 14 SW 12 W 12 W 10
Dispersion idx..25 12 6 5 5 5
LVORI...........2 3 4 4 5 5
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Chance of showers
and thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1400, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 94.
Min humidity........54 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
south 8 to 9 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty
and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL in the
late morning and afternoon, then decreasing to
1800 ft AGL late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 13 mph shifting to the south 12 to 13
mph late in the afternoon.
Dispersion index....5 increasing to 20 early in the morning, then
increasing to 34 late in the morning increasing
to 53 in the late morning and early afternoon
decreasing to 42 decreasing to 29 late in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............5 decreasing to 3 in the late morning and
afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........21 24 27 31 36 39
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 10 10 10 50 50
LAL.............1 1 1 1 3 3
Temp............76 77 85 90 92 91
RH..............90 90 68 58 54 59
20 ft wind......W 6 W 7 W 6 W 6 S 7 S 8
20 ft wind gust.13 13 12 12 10 13
Mix hgt (ft)....800 1200 3000 4100 4500 2700
Transport wind..W 12 W 13 W 13 W 10 W 9 S 12
Dispersion idx..5 20 49 54 49 39
LVORI...........5 4 2 2 2 2
$$
Forecaster...Watson
Requested by...Lucas Hunkler
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2415842.0/MLB
.DELDT 06/08/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lucas_hunkler@nps.gov