Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
967 FXUS64 KMOB 152317 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 617 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 ...New Aviation... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The strong upper level ridge over the area causing the hot and dry conditions will slowly move east of the area through the end of the week. Meanwhile, sfc high pressure will shift off the east coast by Saturday allowing deep layer moisture levels to gradually increase as a southerly flow develops. Rain chances increase late Saturday into Sunday as an upper trough moves east across the plains and sends a cold front toward the area. The GFS has backed off on the strength of the trough and now stalls the front across central Alabama and Sunday in zonal upper flow. A stronger trough Tuesday into Wednesday finally pushes the front through the area. The Euro maintains a stronger trough and sends the front through Sunday afternoon/evening. The frontal timing differences lead to a wide range in POPs and temps between the models for this weekend into early next week. Due to the uncertainty, will maintain the NBM blend for now and see if better agreement develops on later runs. High temps remain above normal through Saturday and becomes uncertain after due to the frontal timing differences. Low temps will gradually increase through the week as moisture levels increase. /13 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR flight category prevails across the region through Thursday. Winds become light and variable to calm tonight. Northeast winds around 5 knots return for the day Thursday, with coastal counties seeing an easterly to southeasterly wind during the afternoon hours around 5 to 10 knots. MM/25 && .MARINE... Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 A light mainly southeasterly flow develops Thursday afternoon, with winds gradually increasing Friday into Saturday along with building seas. A light to moderate southeasterly flow to start the weekend will shift southerly and then southwesterly going into Sunday ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest, and then northerly Sunday evening as the cold front passes through the area. /13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 61 87 62 85 66 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 50 Pensacola 65 86 68 83 70 83 72 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 50 Destin 67 85 69 82 69 82 70 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 50 Evergreen 57 91 59 88 61 88 64 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 30 60 Waynesboro 57 88 57 87 61 86 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 50 50 Camden 58 88 60 87 63 86 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 40 60 Crestview 57 89 60 86 61 85 63 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 60 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...None. FL...None. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob