152
FXUS64 KMOB 220626
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1226 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Dense fog is expected to develop areawide through mid morning
   today including Mobile and Perdido Bay, Mississippi Sound, and
   the nearshore AL waters out to 20 nautical miles.

 -Localized super fog reducing visibility to near zero is possible
  along the Highway 84 corridor near Claiborne, AL and the I-10
  corridor near Holt, FL through the mid morning hours.

 - A Moderate rip current risk exists today for local beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Dense fog remains the biggest forecast concern as we head through
the rest of the night into the mid morning hours. A dense fog
advisory is in effect for all land areas and adjacent Alabama
marine waters out to 20 nautical miles. Fog will gradually settle
into the area as we head through the night, becoming widespread as
we head into daybreak. Localized areas of super fog are possible
where brush fire smoke lingers, with the primary focus being
centered on areas of the I-10 corridor near Holt, Florida and
areas of the Highway 84 corridor near Claiborne, Alabama. Super
fog may reduce visibility to near zero at times resulting in
extremely hazardous travel conditions. There are some caveats to
the fog potential tonight with some lingering high level clouds
making radiational cooling not as idealized in addition to a low
level stratus deck that has tried to take hold the past couple
hours. Highest confidence in widespread dense fog exists across
the western half of the area, but there was still enough of a
signal from forecast guidance for areas to the east as well to go
forth with a dense fog advisory across the entire area through 9
AM CST.

Any fog should lift by mid morning, perhaps lingering a couple
extra hours in locations adjacent to Mobile Bay where marine fog
may keep locations such as Fort Morgan or Dauphin Island socked in
longer than anticipated. If needed, local extensions in the
current dense fog advisory can be issued. For the rest of the day,
only an isolated shower or storm is possible. While the overall
threat for a strong or severe storm is pretty low, elongated
straight hodographs yielding around 30 to 35 knots of deep layer
shear and surface based instability exceeding 1,500j/kg may foster
some multicells if forcing is adequate enough during the afternoon
into evening hours. The main threat would likely be from some
small hail and gusty winds in the strongest storms. A cold front
moves across the area tonight bringing in a drier, slightly cooler
airmass that should help squash any fog potential for tonight. We
have one more warm day today with near record highs in the lower
to middle 80`s across the region. Despite the cold front,
afternoon highs stay above normal in the middle to upper 70`s most
days through Tuesday until our next strong cold front moves
through Wednesday. Overnight lows follow a similar trend generally
in the lower to middle 50`s Saturday night, middle to upper 40`s
Sunday night, and back to well above normal Monday night and
Tuesday night in the upper 50`s to lower 60`s.

Our next strong cold front moves across the area Wednesday. A
leading shortwave glances the forecast area Tuesday, bringing with
it the potential for showers and thunderstorms. There remains
questions on the extent of forcing over the area, but there may be
a small threat for strong to severe thunderstorms. Best chances
at this point appear to be over interior portions of southeast
Mississippi into interior southwest Alabama where the better
overlap of modest forcing, instability, and shear may exist.

The main trough axis moves across the area Wednesday, with a
strong cold front ushering in a dry, cold airmass that will bring
the forecast area back to below normal temperatures for this time
of year. Highs Thursday and Friday will generally be in the lower
to middle 60`s for most locations, with overnight lows cooling
into the lower 30`s over the interior and middle to upper 30`s
nearer the coast. A Moderate risk of rip currents today becomes a
Low risk tonight through Monday night. A Moderate risk of rip
currents, potentially nearing a High risk, returns as we get into
Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

IFR to LIFR ceilings have developed mainly across the coastal
areas and into south-central Alabama. LIFR to VLIFR ceilings and
eventually visbys should spread inland over the next couple of
hours and persist through the overnight. Isolated showers will be
possible across the coastal Florida panhandle during the early
morning hours. Fog should subside shortly after sunrise as low
ceilings slowly lift to MVFR through the afternoon. Winds will
remain out of the west during the day as a front moves in from the
northwest. An isolated shower cannot be ruled out along the front
during the early evening into the overnight hours as winds swing
out of the northwest by midnight. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Patchy to areas of dense fog development is expected the rest of
tonight into this morning for bays and nearshore waters out to 20
nautical miles adjacent to the Alabama coastline. Light southwest
winds tonight become westerly today. Winds shift to the north
tonight as a cold front moves through. A southeasterly flow
develops on Monday and becomes southerly on Tuesday. Winds shift
to the northwest on Wednesday becoming moderate to strong
Wednesday night in the wake of a strong cold front potentially
bringing Small Craft Advisory conditions to much of the marine
area. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      79  64  81  56 /  50  10  10   0
Pensacola   77  68  79  61 /  20  10  10   0
Destin      77  68  78  61 /  10  10  10   0
Evergreen   81  64  83  53 /  50  20  10   0
Waynesboro  78  63  78  51 /  80  30  10   0
Camden      78  64  78  51 /  80  40  20   0
Crestview   79  64  81  55 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM CST Saturday for GMZ630>633-650.

&&

$$