482
FXUS64 KMOB 181731
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

 - A line of thunderstorms will push through the area late tonight
   into early Sunday morning. A few storms may become strong to
   severe with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes possible.

 - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday. Before
   heading to the beach, check the local conditions and follow
   the posted beach warning flags.

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the 20-60 nm portion of
   the marine area tonight into early Sunday morning with another
   period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Sunday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms including
damaging winds and tornadoes exists tonight through early Sunday
morning. An upper trough continues to amplify across the central
U.S. with upper difluence gradually overspreading our forecast
area as we head into tonight. Ample warm air advection will be
ongoing ahead of this, bringing in upper 60`s to lower 70`s
dewpoints into the area. Ample shear for organized strong to
severe thunderstorms will be in place tonight across the region,
with hodographs becoming increasingly large and curved as the
evening progresses. Ahead of the eventual QLCS and any discrete
thunderstorm activity along the potential pre-frontal trough we
can expect around 200 m2/s2 of sfc-1km and sfc-3km SRH to be
present in tandem with increasing surface based and mixed layer
instability values approaching 500 to locally 1,500j/kg. This will
set the stage for any storms within the QLCS or the discrete
activity to pose the potential for damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes. Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms
would be from roughly midnight through 8 AM ahead of the QLCS. The
QLCS is expected to begin to enter our southeastern Mississippi
and far northwestern Alabama counties between 1 AM and 3 AM,
spreading east to the I-65 corridor between 3 AM and 6 AM, and
exiting the forecast area to the east between 6 AM and 9 AM.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a High risk of rip
currents will continue through the rest of the day today into
the day Sunday. A cold front works its way across the area Sunday,
helping to bring offshore winds and gradually reducing the rip
current risk to a Moderate risk by Sunday night and a Low risk by
Monday. Before heading to the beach, check the local conditions
and follow the posted beach warning flags.

In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much cooler and
drier airmass moves into the area. This will be further reinforced
by another cold front that moves across the area Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs on any given day during
this period to top out in the middle to upper 70`s, with the
exception of Tuesday where we warm into the lower to middle 80`s
ahead of the next front. Overnight lows follow a similar cadence,
generally in the middle to upper 40`s over the interior and lower
50`s nearer the coast Sunday night into Monday night. Overnight
lows warm into the upper 40`s to lower 50`s over the interior and
lower to middle 50`s nearer the coast Tuesday night. Our coolest
and driest airmass of the season so far infiltrates the area
Wednesday night with overnight lows bottoming out in the lower to
middle 40`s for most locations, upper 40`s nearer the coast. We
gradually follow a warming trend for overnight lows the rest of
the week into the weekend.

With the consecutive passages of the aforementioned cold fronts,
much drier air will move into the area by mid-week. While there
isn`t explicit concern for meeting red flag watch/warning criteria
at this time across the region, afternoon relative humidity
values dip into the 20 to 25 percent range. This combined with the
ongoing Moderate to Severe drought across the region may
present some increased fire danger for portions of the area,
perhaps highest on Wednesday with winds approaching 10 to 15 mph
during the afternoon hours. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the evening hours.
By the late evening/overnight hours, ceilings will reduce to MVFR
and showers and thunderstorms will begin pushing into the local
area from the west ahead of a cold front. Storms will likely bring
reductions in visibility to IFR or lower. VFR flight categories
return to the local area by mid to late morning as storms exit the
region to the east. Breezy southeasterly winds of around 10-15
knots, with gusts to around 20 knots, will become more southerly
tonight ahead of the cold front. Winds after the front passes will turn
northwesterly. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025

Light to moderate southeasterly winds steadily increase today, with
a moderate to strong southerly flow expected tonight. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the 20 to 60 nautical mile
gulf waters this evening through daybreak Sunday. Small Craft
should exercise caution in bays, sounds, and the 0 to 20 nautical
mile gulf waters. Winds shift out of the northwest on Sunday in
the wake of a cold front, becoming a moderate to occasionally
strong northerly to northeasterly wind Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night. Another Small Craft Advisory may be necessary for
the 20 to 60 nautical mile gulf waters Sunday night. Winds
gradually relax and turn easterly Monday afternoon into Monday
night. A light to moderate offshore flow prevails Tuesday through
Thursday in the wake of another cold front. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      69  83  50  76 /  80  40   0   0
Pensacola   72  84  56  77 /  80  80   0   0
Destin      71  84  58  77 /  60  90   0   0
Evergreen   66  83  46  80 /  80  60   0   0
Waynesboro  65  78  45  76 /  80  20   0   0
Camden      64  80  46  75 /  80  50   0   0
Crestview   67  83  49  78 /  60  80   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday
     for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$