


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
482 FXUS64 KMOB 181731 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 - A line of thunderstorms will push through the area late tonight into early Sunday morning. A few storms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts and tornadoes possible. - A High Risk of rip currents is expected through Sunday. Before heading to the beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the 20-60 nm portion of the marine area tonight into early Sunday morning with another period of Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Sunday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 The potential for strong to severe thunderstorms including damaging winds and tornadoes exists tonight through early Sunday morning. An upper trough continues to amplify across the central U.S. with upper difluence gradually overspreading our forecast area as we head into tonight. Ample warm air advection will be ongoing ahead of this, bringing in upper 60`s to lower 70`s dewpoints into the area. Ample shear for organized strong to severe thunderstorms will be in place tonight across the region, with hodographs becoming increasingly large and curved as the evening progresses. Ahead of the eventual QLCS and any discrete thunderstorm activity along the potential pre-frontal trough we can expect around 200 m2/s2 of sfc-1km and sfc-3km SRH to be present in tandem with increasing surface based and mixed layer instability values approaching 500 to locally 1,500j/kg. This will set the stage for any storms within the QLCS or the discrete activity to pose the potential for damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. Currently the anticipated timing for discrete storms would be from roughly midnight through 8 AM ahead of the QLCS. The QLCS is expected to begin to enter our southeastern Mississippi and far northwestern Alabama counties between 1 AM and 3 AM, spreading east to the I-65 corridor between 3 AM and 6 AM, and exiting the forecast area to the east between 6 AM and 9 AM. In addition to the severe weather threat, a High risk of rip currents will continue through the rest of the day today into the day Sunday. A cold front works its way across the area Sunday, helping to bring offshore winds and gradually reducing the rip current risk to a Moderate risk by Sunday night and a Low risk by Monday. Before heading to the beach, check the local conditions and follow the posted beach warning flags. In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a much cooler and drier airmass moves into the area. This will be further reinforced by another cold front that moves across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Expect afternoon highs on any given day during this period to top out in the middle to upper 70`s, with the exception of Tuesday where we warm into the lower to middle 80`s ahead of the next front. Overnight lows follow a similar cadence, generally in the middle to upper 40`s over the interior and lower 50`s nearer the coast Sunday night into Monday night. Overnight lows warm into the upper 40`s to lower 50`s over the interior and lower to middle 50`s nearer the coast Tuesday night. Our coolest and driest airmass of the season so far infiltrates the area Wednesday night with overnight lows bottoming out in the lower to middle 40`s for most locations, upper 40`s nearer the coast. We gradually follow a warming trend for overnight lows the rest of the week into the weekend. With the consecutive passages of the aforementioned cold fronts, much drier air will move into the area by mid-week. While there isn`t explicit concern for meeting red flag watch/warning criteria at this time across the region, afternoon relative humidity values dip into the 20 to 25 percent range. This combined with the ongoing Moderate to Severe drought across the region may present some increased fire danger for portions of the area, perhaps highest on Wednesday with winds approaching 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon hours. MM/25 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the evening hours. By the late evening/overnight hours, ceilings will reduce to MVFR and showers and thunderstorms will begin pushing into the local area from the west ahead of a cold front. Storms will likely bring reductions in visibility to IFR or lower. VFR flight categories return to the local area by mid to late morning as storms exit the region to the east. Breezy southeasterly winds of around 10-15 knots, with gusts to around 20 knots, will become more southerly tonight ahead of the cold front. Winds after the front passes will turn northwesterly. /96 && .MARINE... Issued at 1052 AM CDT Sat Oct 18 2025 Light to moderate southeasterly winds steadily increase today, with a moderate to strong southerly flow expected tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the 20 to 60 nautical mile gulf waters this evening through daybreak Sunday. Small Craft should exercise caution in bays, sounds, and the 0 to 20 nautical mile gulf waters. Winds shift out of the northwest on Sunday in the wake of a cold front, becoming a moderate to occasionally strong northerly to northeasterly wind Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Another Small Craft Advisory may be necessary for the 20 to 60 nautical mile gulf waters Sunday night. Winds gradually relax and turn easterly Monday afternoon into Monday night. A light to moderate offshore flow prevails Tuesday through Thursday in the wake of another cold front. MM/25 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 69 83 50 76 / 80 40 0 0 Pensacola 72 84 56 77 / 80 80 0 0 Destin 71 84 58 77 / 60 90 0 0 Evergreen 66 83 46 80 / 80 60 0 0 Waynesboro 65 78 45 76 / 80 20 0 0 Camden 64 80 46 75 / 80 50 0 0 Crestview 67 83 49 78 / 60 80 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ670-675. && $$