343
FXUS64 KMOB 100625
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1225 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

 - Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected on Monday across
   the entire area with the ongoing drought, very dry weather, and
   forecast strong winds. A Red Flag Warning is in effect Monday
   afternoon for southeast Mississippi and western Florida
   Panhandle counties, with a possible expansion to Alabama
   counties if the Significant Fire Potential parameter increases.

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for our local marine zones
   through Monday night with the potential for occasional gusts
   to gale force over the open Gulf waters.

 - The first freeze of the season is expected for all of the
   forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
   into the middle 20`s to lower 30`s. Wind Chills will be in the
   low to mid 20s areawide. A Freeze Watch is in effect for the
   entire local area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

An anomalously strong longwave trough is currently located over
the eastern half of the US. This has helped to push a powerful
arctic front through the area on Saturday, allowing for a much
colder and drier airmass to filter in from the northwest. Given
the strong pressure gradient behind the front, winds across much
of the area are currently gusting to around 20-30 mph. Although
temperatures are plummeting due to this strong cold air advection,
it still looks like most of the area should remain just above
freezing. The only possible exceptions look to be for the far
northern parts of Wayne, Choctaw, Clarke, and Wilcox counties
which could see some localized spots dip into the 30-32 degree
range. With coverage and confidence remaining low, will not be
issuing a Freeze Warning for the remainder of the overnight hours.
Wind chills prior to sunrise, however, will be very cold, with
apparent temperatures dropping into the 20s for areas north of
I-10 and the lower 30s for the beaches. Winds stay elevated
throughout the remainder of the day on Monday and even under sunny
skies, temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 40s to low
50s.

By Monday evening and into Monday night, winds will finally begin to
relax as high pressure moves overhead. Light winds, dry conditions,
and clear skies, will lead to efficient radiational cooling, likely
causing temperatures to plummet into the 20s almost areawide. Sub-
freezing temperatures may even be seen along and near the immediate
coast (as seen by high NBM probabilities), and therefore a Freeze
Watch is in effect for the entire local area for Monday night. This
will be upgraded to a Freeze Warning in the next forecast package.
Daily record lows are also in jeopardy of being broken at our local
climate sites. The record at KMOB is 31 degrees and NBM
probabilities give a greater than 95% chance of temperatures
dropping below that. For KPNS, the record is 33 degrees and NBM
probabilities give an 80-90% chance of temperatures dropping below
that. Additionally, although winds are expected to be light, there
may be enough of a wind chill factor to support the need for a Cold
Weather Advisory for apparent temperatures dropping into the upper
teens to low 20s. Given the relatively abrupt and early nature of
this cold compared to normal, as well as the fact that we were
recently in the 70s and 80s, we are not yet acclimated to this
degree of cold weather, which could result in a more dangerous risk
to vulnerable communities. We urge residents and visitors to make
preparations to protect people, plants, pets, and pipes from this
cold weather.

After one more day of chilly temperatures on Tuesday, with highs in
the 50s and lows ranging from the mid 30s inland to the low 40s
along the coast, the high will shift to our east, allowing for winds
to turn onshore. Although we remain dry through Saturday,
temperatures will rise back to above seasonal norms. Highs for late
week will top out in the low to mid 70s and lows will range from the
mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast. Next chance of rain comes
Sunday as the next system approaches from the west. A Low Risk of
rip currents remains in place through the period. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Post frontal
northerly winds of 10-15 knots and gusty expected the rest of the
night through the day Monday before easing Monday evening to 5 to
10 knots.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Strong northwesterly flow will persist through Monday
night. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from through Monday night
for all local marine zones. Occasional gusts to gale force are
possible over the open Gulf waters through Monday morning and again
Monday evening. Winds will then relax on Tuesday and become a light
onshore flow by Wednesday. /96

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

In the wake of a strong cold front, dangerous burning conditions
are expected across the local area on Monday. Along with our
longstanding drought, afternoon relative humidity values are
expected to drop into the low to mid 20s, along with winds of
around 15 to 20 mph, with gusts nearing 30 mph. This has resulted
in a Red Flag Warning to be issued for southeast Mississippi and
the western Florida Panhandle from 11am through 6pm. Similar
conditions will also be in place for southwest/south central
Alabama, however, the Significant Fire Potential parameter did
not reach criteria at issuance time, and therefore Alabama
counties have been excluded from the warning at this time. Any
increases to this potential will result in the Red Flag being
expanded into Alabama counties for tomorrow. However, it should be
urged that regardless of whether or not you are under a Red Flag
Warning, burning is not advised Monday afternoon. Winds will
subside on Tuesday, however, continued dry conditions (minimum RH
values dropping into the 15-20% range for much of the area) will
remain across the area leading to increased fire danger. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      52  27  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   52  31  56  44 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      54  34  58  46 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   50  24  58  33 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  48  24  58  36 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      46  23  56  34 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   51  23  58  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     FLZ201>206.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$