572
FXUS64 KMOB 091904
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
104 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

 - A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for most of the marine
   area Sunday afternoon through Monday night with the potential
   for occasional gusts to gale force over the open Gulf waters.

 - The first freeze of the season is expected for all of the
   forecast area Monday night into Tuesday morning as lows fall
   into the middle 20`s to lower 30`s. Wind Chills will be in the
   low to mid 20s areawide.

 - Dangerous fire weather conditions are possible on Monday across
   the entire area with the ongoing drought, very dry weather, and
   forecast strong winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Winter has arrived as a rather anomalous upper trough digs into
the eastern US. The arctic front is currently exiting our area to
the east and cool dry air has begun to blast into the area.
Dewpoints across the forecast area have plummeted from the upper
60s 2 to 3 hours ago into the mid 40s. Soon temperatures will
follow. Deep northwesterly flow on the backside of the upper low
will allow for continental polar air to surge all the way through
the area and well into the southern Gulf tonight into Monday.
Temperatures will likely not reach freezing tonight, expect a
relatively small area across Choctaw and Wayne counties where we
could reach below freezing for a couple of hours. However, given
the strong gradient behind the front, winds will remain elevated
leading to lower confidence in getting below freezing and with
the colder air tomorrow we elected to hold off on Freeze warnings
for those areas tonight. Winds will remain gusty into Monday as
dewpoints drop all the way into the teens. Wind gusts in the 25 to
30 mph area could be possible during the day on Monday. Highs
will struggle to reach the upper 40s to low 50s on Monday.


Surface high pressure will begin to move over the area by Monday
night as winds relax leading to maximized radiational cooling
across the area. Temperatures will plummet into the mid to upper
20s for most of the area Monday night into Tuesday morning. NBM
probabilities for below freezing are 90-100% all the way to the
immediate coast with only the one to two miles closest to the
coastline ranging around 40-50% of below freezing. The trend
since yesterday has been even colder and given how models handle
these shallow cold air- masses, would not be surprised if we trend
a few more degrees colder. With that in mind, Record daily lows
at Mobile (31 degrees) and Pensacola (33 degrees) are likely to
fall at this point and possibly could be broken by several
degrees, especially at KMOB. NBM probabilities of less than 31 at
MOB is 90 to 100% range and near 90 to 100% for less than 33
degrees at PNS. Freeze Watches have be issued for the entire area
beginning 6pm Monday night til 8am Tuesday morning. Along with
the freezing cold temperatures, there may be an area along the
coastal counties where winds remain slightly elevated enough and
the overlap of upper 20s to near 30s temps and light winds will
result in wind chills in the low 20s and possibly teens across
interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and coastal Alabama.
These values would support the potential for cold weather advisory
products on top of the freeze watch and warning for dangerous
wind chill values. Nonetheless, its going to be downright cold
Monday night into Tuesday morning and given the relatively abrupt
and early nature of this cold compared to normal, we will not be
acclimated and the cold will be even more dangerous to vulnerable
communities.

By the middle of the weak, we will steadily begin to warmup again
as the upper low lifts northeast into the northern Atlantic and
high pressure to our west flattens out. This will allow for more
westerly winds aloft and gradual modification of the air. Luckily
it will remain dry with no significant systems moving through and
it will just be a temperature forecast. Highs will gradually warm
each day reaching the mid 70s by the end of the week with lows in
the upper 40s and 50s which after Monday night is going to feel
like a nice morning. BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Gusty northwest winds are expected through Monday morning in the
wake of a cold front currently over the western Florida panhandle
and soon to exit the area. An MVFR deck mainly located along and
east of I-65 improves to VFR through this afternoon. Gusty northwest
winds 10-15 knots persist through tonight then increase to 10-20
knots Monday morning. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Moderate southwesterly to westerly winds this morning will become
a strong northwesterly flow by the late afternoon hours in the
wake of a strong cold front and will persist through Monday
night. Occasional gusts to gale force are possible over the open
Gulf waters tonight into Monday morning. Given the lack of
confidence in frequent gusts to gale force; we have elected to
hold off on a Gale warning. However, if conditions and
observations do start to suggest a better potential of gale force
winds then a Gale warning will be needed. Winds will then relax on
Tuesday and become a light onshore flow by Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1240 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Given our longstanding drought conditions across the area and a
rather dry frontal passage on Sunday, we have increasing concerns
for dangerous burning conditions across the local area on Monday.
Winds increasing to 15 to 20 mph with gusts nearing 30 mph during
the day on Monday coupled with afternoon relative humidity values
in the low to mid 20s will likely result in rather dangerous fire
conditions. A Red Flag Warning will likely be considered with the
next forecast package. Winds will subside on Tuesday; however,
continued dry conditions could remain across the area leading to
increased fire danger. /BB-8 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  36  51  26 /  20   0   0   0
Pensacola   77  40  53  31 /  20   0   0   0
Destin      78  41  55  34 /  20   0   0   0
Evergreen   73  33  49  23 /  30   0   0   0
Waynesboro  67  31  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      68  31  46  23 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   78  35  51  23 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     FLZ201>206.

MS...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for
     GMZ630>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

$$