675
FXUS64 KMOB 042330
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
530 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 530 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

  - Periods of heavy rain are expected today through Saturday
    with the potential of localized flooding.

  - Sustained winds around 20 knots gusting to 25 to 30 knots
    will be possible through today across the offshore Gulf
    waters. A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect until
    Midnight.

  - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents
    tonight through Friday night for the beaches of Alabama and
    the western Florida Panhandle.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

We are not going to complain about the much needed rain, but it
certainly is rather raw outside with a steady rain and
temperatures struggling to break out of the 50s. This will likely
be the case through most of the weekend as broad southwesterly
flow remains across the area and a parade of shortwave troughs
march through the eastern US. A stalled boundary will remain just
offshore through the next 48 to 72 hours allowing for a focus of
continued moderate to heavy rainfall across the entire area
through Sunday. Rain will likely come in waves as each passing
shortwave provides an influx of moisture and increased isentropic
ascent over the boundary leading to an overrunning stratiform
rain. A good portion of the area has already seen 1 to 3 inches of
rain from this first band of rainfall this morning. Looking at
NBM probabilities, areas mainly south and east of I-65 have about
a 30 to 50 percent chance of adding an additional 2+ inches
through Sunday to the rainfall total. This would give event total
rainfalls of around 3 to 5 inches mainly across South-Central
Alabama and the northwestern Florida Panhandle. While this is a
decent amount of rainfall, the steady and slow rates should not
result in any major flooding concerns across the area and most of
the rain will be rather beneficial to our ongoing drought
conditions. The only locations that could see some minor nuisance
flooding would be the immediate coastal communities and poor
drainage metro areas of Mobile and Pensacola and even then it will
mostly be some ponding on roadways.

By Sunday afternoon into the evening, the final shortwave should
be enough to push enough dry air into the area to give us a bit of
a respite from the dreary cold rain. Southwesterly flow aloft
will become more westerly by midweek as another weak shortwave
moves through mid-week. Expect a drier and warmer pattern by the
end of the week. Without any deep northwesterly flow, temperatures
will basically hover in the 60s for highs and 40s for lows
Wednesday through Friday.

BB-8

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 530 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

High coverage of rain is expected through the evening hours, then
coverage diminishes from west to east late tonight. Predominately
LIFR ceilings/MVFR visibilities are forecast for tonight into
Friday morning, with ceilings improving slightly to IFR levels by
late morning through the afternoon hours. Primarily east winds
5-10 knots, switch to a northerly direction by late tonight. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Moderate to strong northeast to east winds this morning will
increase to strong this afternoon as an inverted surface trough
advances from the western Gulf to the north central Gulf. A Small
Craft Advisory has been issued through tonight. A moderate onshore
flow is likely over the Gulf tonight as a surface low and warm
front lift north toward the Florida Panhandle, while winds remain
northeasterly to easterly over the bays and sounds. Winds will
then shift northerly on Friday in the wake of the departing low
pressure area.

BB-8

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      54  46  55  47 / 100  80  70  70
Pensacola   59  51  60  52 /  90  80  80  80
Destin      59  52  64  52 /  90  80  80  70
Evergreen   51  43  56  44 / 100  90  70  70
Waynesboro  48  40  51  41 / 100  90  40  60
Camden      47  40  52  41 / 100  90  50  60
Crestview   53  45  60  47 /  90  80  80  80

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$