381
FXUS64 KMOB 060538
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1138 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

  - Additional rounds of light to moderate rain through Saturday
    will be focused near and southeast of the I-65 corridor.

  - A strong cold front will move across the area late Sunday
    night into early Monday morning, resulting in hazardous marine
    conditions for small craft through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

The next round of rain is moving in as of midday as the next
subtle shortwave embedded in the upper level southwest flow moves
through. It looks like this round will impact us mostly this
afternoon into early this evening, with highest totals being over
the southern and eastern half of the area. This round will likely
be followed by another relative lull in the rain late this evening
into part of the overnight. However, a more well defined
shortwave currently moving into the southern Plains will result in
a new round of light to moderate developing by early Saturday
morning along and southeast of the I-65 corridor. Given the more
progressive nature of this shortwave from west to east, we finally
expect to see significant rain chances come to an end from west
to east by late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.
Additional rainfall totals of a 0.5-1.5" are possible in the
eastern half of the area, with the highest totals favored along
the coast. We currently do not expect much in the way of flooding
issues outside of some ponding of water in poor drainage areas.

Yet another strong shortwave will move out of the Pacific
Northwest and into the southeast/TN Valley by Sunday night. This
will push a much stronger cold front through the area late Sunday
night into early Monday morning. It`s a bit uncertain how much
deep layer moisture will be available ahead of this system, but we
did maintain a chance of showers for Sunday and Sunday night
given the dynamics of this system.

Much colder and drier air moves into the area in the wake of the
front for early next week. A light freeze is likely along and
north of Hwy 84 Tuesday morning. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Area surface observations are reporting widespread IFR ceilings,
with occasional drops to LIFR levels. These low ceilings are
expected to persist through Saturday afternoon, with light to
occasional moderate rain chances increasing along and southeast of
the I-65 corridor through the morning hours Saturday into early
afternoon. Light northerly winds will gradually shift eastward
throughout the day Saturday. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

A light to moderate offshore flow will persist through Saturday
as a cold front settles further south over the Gulf waters. A
strong cold front will move through late Sunday night into early
Monday morning, bringing another round of strong offshore flow and
building seas across the open Gulf waters. Winds and seas will
subside through midweek as high pressure builds over the region.
34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      46  55  48  68 /  60  80  20  30
Pensacola   50  57  52  68 /  70  90  30  40
Destin      51  58  53  66 /  70  90  40  50
Evergreen   42  55  42  65 /  60  80  10  30
Waynesboro  41  55  42  64 /  40  40  10  20
Camden      39  53  40  60 /  40  50  10  20
Crestview   46  55  45  65 /  70  90  30  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$