238
FXUS64 KMOB 291110
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
510 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 508 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft over the open Gulf waters through Saturday morning, and
   possibly from late Monday night into early Tuesday evening as
   well.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches through Monday. A high rip current risk is
   expected for Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

An upper trof advances across the Plains then ejects off across
the northeast states through Sunday night. An associated surface
low is expected to bring a cold front through the forecast area on
Sunday. Instability continues to look limited ahead of the frontal
passage and am not expecting strong storm development. Dry
conditions on Saturday will be followed by slight chance to likely
pops on Sunday (highest pops over northwest portion). Rain chances
taper to dry conditions Sunday night. A large positively tilted
upper trof meanwhile evolves over the central and western CONUS,
then takes on a meridional orientation and also deamplifies while
progressing across the eastern states mainly on Tuesday into
Tuesday evening. A surface low is expected to develop over the
northwest Gulf on Monday then zips off across the forecast area
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Depending on the ultimate
trajectory of the surface low, it`s possible that MLCAPE values
around 1000 J/kg could be realized late Monday night into early
Tuesday morning over the coastal counties, tapering to much lower
values further inland. Plenty of favorable shear may also be in
place, but considering uncertainty with the trajectory of the
surface low, will continue to monitor at this point. Have gone
with mostly chance pops for Monday and categorical pops for Monday
night then tapering to dry conditions on Tuesday/early Tuesday
evening.

Dry conditions are expected Wednesday while another upper trof
swings into the western states. There is a lot of uncertainty with
the eventual movement of the upper trof which could translate into
the central CONUS through Friday, or even make it into the eastern
states. Either way, a series of shortwaves look set to move across
the forecast area on Thursday which will support slight chance to
chance pops, then have gone with good chance pops for Friday as
the pattern should support scattered coverage regardless of what
transpires. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to mid 60s
then Sunday ranges from around 60 well inland to the lower 70s
near the coast. Highs trend cooler through Wednesday to range from
the lower/mid 50s well inland to near 60 at the coast. Highs
moderate a bit by Friday to range from the mid 50s well inland to
the mid 60s at the coast. Lows Saturday night range from the lower
40s well inland to the mid 50s at the coast, then lows Sunday
night range from around 40 well inland to the lower 50s at the
coast. Lows moderate Monday night then Tuesday night will be cool
and range from around 30 well inland to the upper 30s near the
coast. Overnight lows trend a bit warmer by Thursday night to
range from around 40 well inland to near 50 at the coast. A
moderate risk of rip currents is expected through Monday, then a
high risk follows for Monday night and Tuesday. A low rip current
risk is expected by Wednesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR flight category continues to prevail across the region. Winds
will remain out of the east to east-southeast today into tonight.
Winds will generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range over the
interior with 10 to 15 knots nearer the coast. Wind gusts this
morning may occasionally approach 15 to 20 knots nearer the coast
this morning before diminishing by this afternoon. MM/25

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Moderate to strong easterly winds diminish on Saturday and become
southeasterly. Have continued with a Small Craft Advisory until
15Z Saturday for the open Gulf waters and will mention small craft
should exercise caution tonight mainly for southern Mobile Bay
and the Mississippi Sound. An offshore flow develops on Sunday as
a cold front moves through. The offshore flow becomes moderate to
occasionally strong Sunday night then becomes easterly on Monday.
An onshore flow develops Monday evening then switches to the
northwest Tuesday morning as another cold front moves through. A
Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for the open Gulf waters
late Monday night through early Tuesday evening. /29

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1110 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% on Saturday over
interior southwest Alabama, south central Alabama, and a small
portion of the interior western Florida panhandle. 20 ft wind
speeds will remain below critical levels (around 10 mph), and the
Significant Fire Potential will be low so will just monitor at
this point. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      64  51  70  48 /   0  10  30  20
Pensacola   63  56  71  53 /   0  10  20  20
Destin      64  56  71  55 /   0  10  20  20
Evergreen   62  45  68  43 /   0   0  30  20
Waynesboro  60  45  60  39 /   0  30  60  20
Camden      59  43  60  40 /   0  10  50  20
Crestview   63  46  73  48 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ650-655-
     670-675.

&&

$$