789
FXUS64 KMOB 231146
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
546 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 543 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

 - Some strong to potentially severe storms are possible Tuesday
   afternoon into Tuesday evening near and west of the I-65
   corridor.

 - A Small Craft Advisory may become necessary for much of the
   marine area Wednesday night through Thursday morning,
   potentially lingering into late week in the nearshore waters.

 - A Moderate rip current risk exists for local beaches Tuesday
   and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A cold front presently moving across the area gradually ushers in
a drier forecast as we head into the rest of the day today
through Monday. Despite the cold front moving through, we will
continue to maintain above normal highs and lows across the area
with temperatures topping out in the middle to upper 70`s and
overnight lows in the upper 40`s to lower 50`s for most locations
tonight. We begin a warm advection regime Monday with lows Monday
night becoming well above normal in the lower to middle 60`s.

As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday an upper trough begins to
approach the region bringing unsettled weather once again to the
area. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be
expected, particularly Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. A few
lingering showers and storms are possible Wednesday generally
near and east of the I-65 corridor. While exact details continue
to vary on the exact track of the leading shortwave Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening, there still appears to be some
signal that at least areas near and west of the I-65 corridor
could see a low end threat for strong to severe thunderstorms.
Adequate CAPE and shear should be present for organized
thunderstorms, however the magnitude of forcing is the biggest
question mark at this point in time precluding much confidence in
the severe weather potential. Regardless, temperatures will remain
well above normal for Tuesday into Wednesday with highs in the
middle to upper 70`s Tuesday and lower to middle 70`s Wednesday.

A strong cold front pushes across the area Wednesday bringing
with it a substantially colder and drier airmass. This front
should knock daytime highs down into the lower to middle 60`s
Thursday into Friday, with overnight lows dipping well below
normal into the upper 30`s and lower 40`s Wednesday night and
lower to middle 30`s Thursday night. Late week into the weekend
looks to shift back to a warm advection regime bringing warmer,
moister air into the area ahead of our next weather system late
weekend into the following week. A low risk of rip currents
continues through Monday night before becoming a Moderate risk
Tuesday into Wednesday. MM/25

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A mixed bag of conditions this morning as a cold front moves
across the area from west to east. Areas mainly east of I-65 and
north of I-10 are dealing with LIFR to IFR ceilings and visbys as
low ceilings and patchy fog has developed ahead of the front. VFR
conditions exist elsewhere, especially behind the front where
skies will quickly clear. Expect VFR conditions to return to the
area by mid-morning with a light north wind. Winds will relax
tonight and some patchy fog may develop across interior areas of
south-central Alabama leading to reduced visibilities. BB-8

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1200 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Winds shift northwesterly to northerly this morning in the wake
of a cold front. A southeasterly flow develops on Monday and
becomes southerly on Tuesday. Winds shift out of the northwest to
north on Wednesday as a cold front moves through with a moderate
to strong offshore flow for Wednesday night through Friday. A
Small Craft advisory may be needed for much of the marine waters
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with nearshore waters
potentially continuing to experience exercise caution to low end
advisory criteria winds through late week into the weekend. MM/25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  53  77  65 /   0   0   0  20
Pensacola   78  58  77  67 /   0   0   0  20
Destin      77  60  76  67 /   0   0   0  20
Evergreen   78  50  79  61 /   0   0   0  10
Waynesboro  73  49  77  61 /   0   0   0  40
Camden      75  48  78  60 /   0   0   0  20
Crestview   80  50  79  59 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$