035
FXUS64 KMOB 272306
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
506 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 504 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

 - Strong offshore flow will create hazardous conditions for small
   craft across portions of the marine area through Friday
   morning, with another possible period from Friday night into
   Saturday morning.

 - There is a moderate risk of life threatening rip currents at
   area beaches Saturday, then a high risk is anticipated for
   Saturday night and Sunday.

 - Low relative humidity values on Thursday and Friday along with
   the potential for breezy winds could result in an elevated fire
   danger and will be monitored.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

A deep upper trough over the eastern Conus moves off, with zonal
upper flow setting up over the Southeast into the weekend. Upper
level shortwave energy ahead of a deep upper trough digs south
over the western Conus the rest of the work week. Surface high
pressure passes over the Mississippi River, moving to the East
Coast by late Saturday, restoring onshore flow to the forecast
area and nearby Friday night into Saturday. The current dry
airmass over the forecast area (precipitable h20 values around
0.33") begins to moisten Saturday, rising to around 1.3" Sunday.
The zonal upper flow over the Southeast helps to direct the
stronger upper trough well north of the northern Gulf coast as it
moves east from the western Conus. Weaker impulses pass over the
region over region Sunday, with a cold front moving over the
forecast area late Sunday into Sunday night. This front stalls
over the northern Gulf by Monday. More shortwave energy moves over
the northern Gulf coast Monday into Tuesday, guidance is
advertising a surface low developing on the stalled surface front
over the northwestern Gulf Monday, then moving northeast over/near
the forecast area late Monday/Monday night (ultimate path and
timing of passage vary in the guidance). Isentropic upglide
showers develop ahead of the developing surface low, with enough
instability just north of the boundary and points south for
rumbles to mix in. With the inconsistency in the guidance, have
less confidence on where the rumbles occur or any types/placement
of rowdy storms. Inconsistency in model solutions continue through
the end of the forecast, with some models advertising a passing
shortwave bringing rain back to the forecast area for Thursday.
Have low confidence in this.

Taking a step back and looking at Sunday`s weather, instability is
modest and confined to over the coast and south. Guidance is
advertising some upper divergence with the passing shortwave energy,
along with Bulk Wind Shear of 40-50kts coincident with the
instability, mainly near the coast. Enough directional wind shear
for spinners will be confined to areas along and south of the front.
Where is hard to pin down at this time, with guidance indicating
some northward movement of the stalled boundary as a warm front, but
quick passage of the passing energy, plus ultimate positioning of
the stalling cold front, northward movement of the warm front will
be limited and confined to areas south of I-10. Will need to keep an
eye on this.

High temperatures are going to see a roller coaster through the
forecast, with mid 50s to around 60 today rising to around 60
northwestern areas to low 70s southeast of I-65 Sunday. The same
northwest to southeast gradient continues through Tuesday, with mid
50s northwest to upper 60s southeast of I-65 expected Monday and
Tuesday. By Thursday, high temperatures have climbed back into the
low to upper 60s over the forecast area. Low temperatures see the
same roller coast, with around 30 to mid 30s tonight rising to the
mid 40s northeast to low 50s over the southwestern third of the
forecast area Saturday night. Sunday`s system shifts the
temperatures over the forecast area to a northwest to southeast
banding, with around 40 northwestern-most portions of the forecast
area to the upper 50s well south of I-65. 30s return to most of the
forecast area Tuesday night.

Offshore flow shifts to onshore this weekend, with the Rip Risk
rising to Moderate to High Saturday into the coming week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 506 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through Friday. Northwest
winds 5-10 knots become northerly around 10 knots on Friday. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Moderate to strong northerly winds diminish somewhat on
Thursday, but restrengthen Thursday night, mainly over the open Gulf
waters. Moderate to at times strong winds shift to easterly Saturday,
then southeast to south Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front
crossing area waters late Sunday into Sunday night shifts flow to
offshore for a short period. A system passes over area waters late
Monday into Monday night, bringing moderate to strong variable
direction winds before moderate to strong offshore flow returns for
Tuesday into mid week after the system passes.
/16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Afternoon relative humidity values drop to 20-25% for much of the
area today and Friday over most of the area. At this time, the
Significant Fire Potential rating is low or less for both days. The
20 ft wind speeds will be less than 15/16 mph for the most part, but
could reach these values over the coastal counties and will need to
monitor. Will mention the potential for elevated fire danger due to
low relative humidity and potentially breezy winds.
/29/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      35  56  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   40  57  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      40  58  43  64 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   30  56  32  63 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  30  54  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      28  52  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   31  57  32  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ650-655.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ670-675.

&&

$$