Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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991
FXUS64 KMOB 161735
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1235 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Dry and warm conditions will persist through Saturday, with
   increasing rain chances for Sunday morning. Dry conditions
   return for next week, along with cooler temperatures.

 - The risk of life-threatening rip currents will increase by
   Friday evening, with a high risk expected on Saturday and
   Sunday. Before heading to beach, check the local conditions and
   follow the posted beach warning flags.

 - Very dry conditions on top of an ongoing and expanding drought
   may lead to fire weather concerns for next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

The axis of an amplified upper ridge, currently extending from
the northern Gulf up through the north central US, will push to
the east over the next few days. This is in response to an upper-
level trough that will dig southeastward across the CONUS over the
weekend. This trough should push to the east of the local region
by Sunday morning, helping to establish a northwesterly flow
pattern aloft in its wake for the start of next week. At the
surface, an associated cold front will push through the area on
Sunday. Showers and storms (potentially in the form of an MCS)
will likely be ongoing upstream over the Lower Mississippi River
Valley on Saturday. As the front and associated MCS approaches our
area Saturday night, most guidance suggests that the best forcing
should begin to lift away from the region. Also factoring in
meager downstream instability due to the overnight timing and poor
lapse rates, the most likely scenario is for the MCS to weaken
prior reaching our northwestern counties. It should be noted that
the 00z and 06z ensemble runs of the ECMWF did suggest a slightly
deeper trough which could help to maintain the MCS just a bit
longer for it to possibly reach our CWA. If this solution were to
pan out, then the primary concern would be gusty winds for areas
north of Highway 84 and west of I-65 during the early morning
hours on Sunday. At this time, the potential for this is rather
low. Rain chances quickly decrease by late Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon as a much drier airmass quickly advects in behind
the cold front. We remain dry through Monday night before a
stronger cold front passes through on Tuesday. With a lack of any
meaningful moisture return, only a few isolated showers are
possible as this second front moves through. We dry out once again
for midweek as high pressure builds in to our north.

Highs will remain very warm for this time of year through Sunday,
with highs topping out in the mid to upper 80s. After the first
front passes through, highs on Monday and Tuesday will be knocked
down by a couple degrees; ranging from the upper 70s to mid 80s.
Highs lower again for Wednesday and Thursday after the second front
passes, with temperatures generally topping out in the mid to upper
70s. Lows will follow a similar pattern. Lows will remain mild
through Saturday night, with temperatures only dropping into the
60s. After the first front, lows decrease into the 50s inland and
low 60s along the coast for Sunday and Monday nights. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday nights decrease even further after the second front,
with some interior areas dropping into the mid to upper 40s. The rip
current risk remains low through Friday afternoon, increasing to a
moderate risk Friday evening. A High Risk of rip currents follow for
this weekend, lowering back down to moderate by Monday.

Fire weather note: D1 to D2 drought continues to expand across much
of the local region. Although scattered showers and storms are
expected Sunday morning, overall rainfall totals are expected to
remain below a half inch, offering little relief. After the Sunday
and Tuesday fronts pass through, guidance indicates that much drier
air will push in, likely bringing afternoon humidity values down to
below 30 percent for several days next week (Monday, Wednesday, and
Thursday). Although winds appear to remain rather weak, the dry
conditions on top of the worsening drought conditions could lead to
fire-related concerns next week. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions should prevail for much of the area over the next
24 hours. However, there is an increasing signal for some patchy
fog to develop over portions of southeast Mississippi and
southwest Alabama at around 08-09z tonight. This could bring a
reduction in flight categories to MVFR or IFR for localized areas.
Any fog that does develop will dissipate shortly after sunrise.
Light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through this
afternoon, becoming more variable tonight. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

A light southerly to southeasterly flow continues through
tonight, with winds gradually increasing on Friday and Saturday,
along with building seas. Winds shift to a light to moderate
southwesterly flow on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Moderate
offshore flow develops Sunday evening in the wake of the cold front
and becomes onshore once again as we head into early next week. /96

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      63  85  65  84 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   68  82  70  83 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      69  82  69  82 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   59  89  61  88 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  59  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      60  87  63  87 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   60  85  60  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$