650
FXUS64 KMOB 151148
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
548 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 544 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

 - Dense fog continues to develop along the coastline this morning
   and will expand inland through the pre-dawn hours. Another
   round of fog, potentially dense fog, is possible late tonight
   into Sunday morning.

 - Risk for rip currents may increase to a moderate risk late in
   the week ahead of the next chance for showers and storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 544 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Satellite imagery suggests that the dense fog has spread into the
southern half of Butler and Crenshaw counties. Due to this, the
Dense Fog Advisory has been expanded to include these counties.
Fog will start to dissipate a little after sunrise, and therefore
the advisory will remain in effect until 8am. Otherwise, forecast
remains on track for this morning. /96

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Dense fog will be the predominant concern over the next few nights
with clear skies and light winds. Probabilistic guidance is really
keying in on the worst visibilities occurring across the southern
half of the area over the next few hours. The fog should gradually
lift by mid-morning with a rinse and repeat pattern expected for
tonight into early Sunday morning. Visibilities have already plunged
to 1/4 mile or lower at several observing sites along the coastline
as of 06z. Other than the fog settling in a few hours earlier than
anticipated on the previous package, the remainder of the forecast
is on track.

The forecast remains rain-free through Thursday based on the latest
guidance. Weak ridging aloft continues to nose into our area from
the west today before flattening out somewhat as a potent upper
level system dives across the Great Lakes region. Flow aloft
generally turns zonal early next week. The pattern aloft becomes
more amplified by mid-week as a digging trough swings across the
western CONUS on the heels of a series of shortwaves. The spread in
the guidance continues to lessen as we roll toward the latter part
of the work week, but there are still noticeable differences in the
deterministic and ensemble guidance with respect to the timing,
placement, and amplitude of the incoming trough. While we are
looking at increasing chances for showers and storms as we get into
the latter part of the week (Friday and beyond), the latest ensemble
guidance seems less enthusiastic about this pattern with the trough
dampening and the ridge remaining dominant through early weekend.

Beach Forecast - Rip current risk remains LOW through mid week in
this pattern. The rip current MOS probabilities continue to indicate
that the risk may briefly increase to near MODERATE levels by late
Sunday afternoon across the Florida panhandle beaches, especially
Destin. The probabilities quickly increase Thursday for all beaches
and a MODERATE risk is possible by that afternoon. 07/mb

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 516 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Dense fog continues to spread across the local region this morning,
reducing visibilities down to a half mile or less in many spots.
This fog should eventually dissipate by around 14-15z. VFR
conditions will then become prevalent for the remainder of the day
and into the evening hours. Fog, some of which could be dense, is
expected to develop again Saturday night into Sunday morning. /96

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1254 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Dense marine fog is possible over the next few nights, particularly
for the bays and sounds. Fog will develop each night after midnight
and persist through mid-morning. Onshore flow may increase to
advisory levels late in the week. 07/mb

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  56  79  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   74  60  78  60 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      73  61  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   78  53  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  78  54  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      77  54  80  49 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   76  52  79  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ052-053-
     055>060-261>266.

FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for FLZ201>206.

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ075-076-
     078-079.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ630>634.

&&

$$