833
FXUS64 KMOB 031125
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
525 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 522 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

 -A Frost Advisory is in effect for areas well north of Highway 84
  later tonight into Monday.

 -Small craft will need to exercise caution over the offshore
  marine waters tonight into Monday.

 -Above seasonable temperatures expected in the coming week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Now through Sunday...

A closed upper low sweeps east over the Southeast into the coming
week, with a piece of shortwave energy swinging around the base of
this low, over the Gulf. A reinforcing front moved south of the
northern Gulf coast tonight in response, with a drier airmass (and
precipitable h20 values around 0.2"-0.3") moving over the forecast
area by Monday morning. Patchy frost is a possibility later tonight
into Monday morning, mainly well north of Highway 84, and in
localities where winds become light. Monday on, upper level high
pressure centered over Texas shifts east over the northern Gulf
coast, then a bit south over the Gulf proper. Surface high pressure
shifts east over the Southeast before stalling into mid week, with
northerly flow becoming southerly by the end of the week. The flow
is light, so moisture return is slow into Thursday. Onshore flow
becomes better organized Thursday night on, increasing moisture
levels with an uptick in rain chances Friday into the weekend ahead
of another front moving over the Southeast Sunday.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, below seasonal temperatures in
the 65-70 range expected for Monday.  From there, high temperatures
rise to a well above seasonal upper 70s to around 80 by Thursday as
the upper ridge moves over the northern Gulf coast. Low temperatures
in the mid/upper 30s north of Highway 84 to upper 40s south of I-10
Sunday and Monday nights rise into the mid 50s to around 60 by
Friday night.

Offshore winds into Monday, then light winds will counter-balance an
increasing tidal cycle to keep the risk of rip currents low into the
middle of the coming week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1114 PM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

Light northerly winds become a more moderate to at times
strong offshore into Monday behind a front crossing area waters.
Surface high pressure moves over area waters mid week, bringing
light and variable winds. A light onshore flow returns the end of
the week.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      68  43  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   68  48  73  54 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      69  50  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   69  39  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  67  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      66  38  74  42 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   69  39  75  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ALZ051-053-054.

FL...None.
MS...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for MSZ067.

GM...None.
&&

$$